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NYT: Putin believes Ukraine’s collapse is near — and he’s acting like it

Par :Yuri Zoria

Russian President Vladimir Putin attending an Easter service in Moscow. April 2025. Photo: kremlin.ru

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine’s collapse is near, according to The New York Times. The paper reports that this belief is driving a sharp escalation in Russia’s war. Despite multiple calls with US President Donald Trump, the Kremlin continues to press forward. Russian insiders told NYT that Moscow expects Ukraine’s defenses to fall and sees no reason to compromise.

This comes as Trump has pushed for Moscow-Kyiv talks for months, allegedly to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Russia, however, only significantly escalated its air and ground attacks in Ukraine, and reiterated its maximalist goals, amounting to Ukraine’s capitulation.

Putin rejects any pause, believing Ukraine’s collapse is near

Two people close to the Kremlin told NYT that Putin expects Ukraine’s front lines to fail within months. They said the Russian president views any halt in fighting as unacceptable unless Ukraine agrees to sweeping concessions.

“He will not sacrifice his goals in Ukraine for the sake of improving relations with Trump,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Putin believes he sees momentum on the battlefield and believes time favors Moscow. He continues to press for Ukrainian capitulation rather than any negotiated freeze of his was in Ukraine.

Trump’s personal diplomacy fails to slow Moscow’s offensive

Since February, Trump has spoken with Putin by phone six times. Russia and Ukraine also held two rounds of direct talks in Istanbul.

Despite that, Moscow has only escalated its assault. The Kremlin has rejected all US efforts to stop or slow the war.

On 9 July 2025, Trump voiced his anger:

“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin,” he told reporters. “He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

Despite the breakdown, Putin continued to praise Trump. At a 27 June press conference in Belarus, he called him “a courageous man.” Referring to Trump’s frustration, Putin added:

“That’s how it is. Real life is always more complicated than the idea of it.”

Putin reiterates goals: NATO rollback, Ukraine neutrality, legal changes

The Kremlin’s war aims now go far beyond territorial control. Putin demands that NATO halt eastward expansion and remove infrastructure from Eastern Europe. He also wants Ukraine to adopt a neutral status and reduce the size of its military. Another key demand: alleged protection for the Russian language in Ukrainian law.

Most significantly, Putin insists Ukraine withdraw all forces from its territory claimed by Russia. That condition continues to block any potential cease-fire.

A Kremlin-connected source told NYT that Putin still expects a deal with Trump on sanctions relief — but not now. The source said Moscow believes that moment will come only after Russia finishes its offensive.

Kremlin sees no value in compromise — yet

For Putin, the re-opening of direct contact with Trump marked a diplomatic breakthrough after years of Biden-era isolation.

Still, the Kremlin is frustrated that Trump refuses to separate peace in Ukraine from broader US-Russia ties. That approach has stalled Moscow’s hopes of striking a deal quickly, NYT says.

 

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