The United States has halted key weapons deliveries to Ukraine, a move that think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns could accelerate Russian battlefield gains and force Ukrainian troops to conserve dwindling resources. The suspension, which affected munitions already staged in Poland, caught Ukrainian authorities off guard and threatens to weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold the line.

Ukraine not notified before US halted weapons

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated that no official notification was given prior to the US announcement about the aid suspension. The New York Times reported US officials as saying the munitions weren’t scheduled for delivery for several months, but the Wall Street Journal contradicted this, noting that deliveries already staged in Poland were halted as of 1 July. Politico cited a Trump administration official as saying no additional aid has been requested, but that remaining Biden-era packages could sustain Ukraine “several more months.”

Ukrainian forces continue to husband matériel

A deputy battalion commander told the Washington Post in a 2 July article that Ukrainian troops are now focused on holding defensive positions rather than advancing. This echoes past situations when US aid suspensions forced Ukrainian forces to ration air defense interceptors, GMLRS rockets, and artillery shells.

While European partners are increasing support and Ukraine’s domestic defense industry is expanding, ISW assessed that only the United States can provide some crucial systems at the necessary scale and speed.

“Ukrainian forces very likely will have to conserve materiel again should the United States continue to suspend weapons deliveries,” ISW wrote.

Russian offensives benefit from past US aid delays

According to ISW, past pauses in US assistance have created openings for Russian forces. During the fall 2023 and winter-spring 2024 suspensions – when the US Congress Republicans delayed approving the Ukraine aid funding for six months.

During this period, Russian troops intensified offensives, particularly around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. In January 2024, Russia ramped up its assault on the settlement, eventually capturing it in February while Ukrainian troops were constrained by artillery shortages. These conditions allowed Russia to sustain offensive momentum, aiming westward and launching further attacks toward Pokrovsk during spring 2024, when aid was still delayed.

ISW assessed that between 6 December 2023, when the US aid pause began, and 24 April 2024, when it resumed, Russian troops advanced roughly three kilometers per day — especially in Donetsk Oblast.

In contrast, during the previous six months, Russia had lost around 203 square kilometers due to Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, which was heavily supported by US and allied military aid.

Why the pause happened: US reviews global commitments

Politico reported that the Trump administration made the decision in early June 2025 to hold off on certain deliveries, but the effect only became clear in early July. White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly confirmed on 1 July that the decision followed a Department of Defense review of US global military assistance. NBC, citing six defense and congressional officials, said the Pentagon ordered the pause while it reassessed stockpiles, and that the delay could be extended if stock levels remain low or if US needs elsewhere take precedence.

Kyiv urges resumption of aid

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized on 2 July that timely delivery of allocated US defense aid remains critical, especially to bolster air defenses. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that delays would embolden Russia to continue its war and avoid negotiating peace. Ukrainian diplomats noted ongoing talks with Washington to find a path forward that supports Ukraine’s defense needs.

Overnight on 3 July, Russia launched a massive drone attack across Ukraine, hitting multiple civilian locations including a residential building in Odesa, injuring five people—among them two children. The Ukrainian Air Force says air defenses have downed 40 of 52 Russian Shahed and decoy drones. At the same time, Russia continues its “human safari” in Kherson: a Russian drone dropped explosives, injuring a civilian man this morning. 

Russia conducts drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian residential areas every night.

Mass drone assault across Ukraine

According to Ukraine’s Air Force, the Russian military deployed 52 drones—mostly Iranian-made Shahed strike UAVs along with decoy drones—from the directions of Oryol, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia. The attack began around 21:30 on 2 July and continued into the early hours of 3 July.

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly neutralized 40 of the drones: 22 were shot down by firepower, and 18 were suppressed or lost through electronic warfare.

The Air Force confirmed drone impacts in seven separate locations and the fall of downed drones in at least one additional area.

Odesa: civilians injured, high-rise damaged

In Odesa, one of the most heavily affected cities, a Russian drone strike damaged a nine-story residential building. The State Emergency Service (DSNS) of Odesa Oblast report that the fire spread across apartments on the seventh, eighth, and ninth floors.

Five people were injured in the strike, including a seven-year-old boy and a nine-year-old girl. The Odesa Oblast Military Administration stated that the children were hospitalized with smoke inhalation, while the other three victims received outpatient care.

Rescue teams evacuated 50 residents from the damaged building, including 11 people from the upper floors. DSNS spokesperson Maryna Averina confirmed the collapse of structural elements, and that specialized equipment is being used to monitor the building for further risks.

Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov said that significant damage was observed in at least one entrance of the high-rise, adding that a full assessment will follow after emergency crews remove dangerous debris.

According to the Odesa Oblast Military Administration, six apartments were destroyed, 36 more were partially damaged, and other civilian infrastructure in the area also sustained impact.

Update: Poltava targeted

On the morning of 3 July, Poltava came under a Russian air attack, with local media reporting a strike on the so-called Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center – the regional draft office.

Poltava Oblast Military Administration head Volodymyr Kohut reported an air raid alert at 08:04 and the all-clear at 09:04. Between those times, he confirmed explosions in the city but gave no further details.

Local Telegram channel “We Poltava” said the building of the draft office was likely hit, sharing footage from the site. No casualties have been reported so far.

Kherson: Russian reconnaissance drone attacks civilian

In Kherson, Russian drones continued their ongoing pattern of deliberately targeting civilians, known as “human safari.” The Kherson Oblast State Administration reported that early in the morning, a drone struck a 74-year-old man in the Dniprovskiy District. The victim sustained an explosive injury, concussion, and shrapnel wounds to his face and leg. He was hospitalized in moderate condition.

Air defense activity in Zaporizhzhia

At 02:20, air defense systems were active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This was confirmed by the head of the regional military administration, Ivan Fedorov. No additional details were given regarding damage or injuries in that oblast at the time.