Russia made more territorial gains in Ukraine in May 2025 than in nearly any month since the end of 2022, but the Kremlin’s aim is not only battlefield progress but also to shape perceptions in Western capitals, making a Russian victory appear inevitable and discouraging future support for Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Kremlin intensifies multi-front assaults to create momentum

WSJ reports that the Russian offensive has expanded across several fronts, with the Kremlin probing for weaknesses while forcing Ukraine to defend along the entire 1,000 km front line. Moscow seeks to exploit its manpower advantage and the onset of summer foliage, which hampers Ukrainian drone visibility.

George Barros, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, told WSJ:

“The center of gravity for this war is not terrain—the place where it’s being decisively waged is the perception space in Western capitals.” He added, referring to the Russian reasoning behind the strategy: “If the map is moving, they’re able to say, ‘We’re making progress. Ukraine is screwed. How many more billions are you going to spend?’”

Putin counting on US fatigue to win what his army cannot, WP op-ed argues

Kostyantynivka becomes key focus in eastern Ukraine

In Donetsk Oblast, Russia has shifted troops toward Kostiantynivka from Pokrovsk, surrounding the city on three sides. The city, a vital logistics hub, is under increased attack. A senior Ukrainian lieutenant fighting in the area told WSJ: “The city is rapidly transforming into a front line.” He also warned of frequent, precise Russian drone strikes enabled by fiber-optic drones capable of traveling up to 40 km — double their range a year ago.

Russian airstrikes intensify on Ukrainian second defensive line northeast of Pokrovsk

Northern front sees renewed Russian push toward Sumy

In Ukraine’s north, Russian troops have entered Sumy Oblast after amassing over 50,000 soldiers. According to WSJ, one Ukrainian sergeant in the region said the Russians outnumber local troops roughly two-to-one. Russian forces appear to be attempting to seize Yunakivka and ultimately reach the regional capital of Sumy, located less than 30 km from the border.

Even where Russian forces have not advanced, assaults continue to fix Ukrainian forces in place. A Ukrainian captain in the Pokrovsk area told WSJ that Russian attacks happen at all hours:

“They want to reach the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—it’s important to them symbolically.”

Russia captures Sumy’s Kostiantynivka village as Russians try to widen frontline in region

Zaporizhzhia buildup raises concerns of wider offensive

Ukrainian officials and sources familiar with the matter told WSJ that Russia is also increasing its troop presence in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian special forces have been sent there to reinforce defenses.

A senior lieutenant near Kostiantynivka summarized the toll of the ongoing campaign:

“We anticipate worsening conditions across all directions this summer. Personnel are exhausted. There are not enough rotations. Everyone is operating at the edge of their limits.”

Russian forces are heavily bombarding Ukraine’s second defensive line in Donbas northeast of the city of Pokrovsk with precision airstrikes, with OSINT analyst Clément Molin reporting nearly 1,000 recent hits in a narrow section of the frontline.

Targeted airstrike surge along Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis

Russian Aerospace Forces are actively conducting intense aerial preparation against Ukrainian positions between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast.

According to OSINT analyst Clément Molin, satellite imagery shows around 950 airstrikes across fields and forest strips near the Ukrainian defense line. These strikes began around 25 May, following recent Russian territorial gains in the area.

Molin posted on X:

“I located nearly 1 000 airstrike[s] on a small area of the frontline between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. This is simply massive.”

He added that the attacks are focused on treeline areas in response to a shift in Ukrainian tactics that favors smaller, concealed positions. The bombardment is especially intense on the western edge of the Pokrovsk-Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka triangle.

Strategic shift toward attempted Pokrovsk encirclement?

Molin stated that Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk appear stronger, requiring more force to neutralize. He suggested a possible attempt by Russian forces to encircle Pokrovsk from the eastern flank:

“Russia could reactivate the western Pokrovsk front while launching assault on the eastern side.”

He noted that such activity could support an objective to capture Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before 2026.

Airstrike patterns across Donbas and Sumy

This is not the first time such intense airstrike concentrations have been recorded. Molin referenced previous instances in Robotyne in 2023 and Kursk in 2024. He also observed similar patterns in Sumy Oblast, where forest zones north of the city are being targeted as Ukrainian forces resist Russian advances.

Frontline developments and Ukrainian response

Militarnyi, citing the Ukrainian Army General Staff, reports that the situation in the Pokrovsk axis remains “difficult.” On 11 June alone, Ukrainian defenders reportedly repelled 62 separate Russian assault actions. These clashes occurred near multiple settlements, including Malynivka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novosergiivka, Orikhove, Andriivka, and toward Poltavka, Oleksiivka, and Muravka.

With Rusia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations resumed un US President Donald Trump’s pressure for the first time since 2022, Russian forces have launched a new offensive in northern Ukraine, targeting border villages in Sumy Oblast and pushing to create a buffer zone, according to multiple Ukrainian sources.

Border assaults on Sumy’s Oleksiivka, Yunakivka, and Yablunivka

Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed that the Russians have intensified assaults near the Sumy Oblast border, specifically in the direction of Oleksiivka, Yunakivka, and Yablunivka. The attackers are attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses and solidify a presence along the frontier.

A Ukrainian war monitoring group, DeepState, reported that Russian troops have captured six settlements in the area, including the village of Vodolahy, which is located approximately 25–30 kilometers from the regional capital, Sumy city. These attacks are supported by drone strikes and artillery shelling of civilian areas, according to local authorities.

According to the General Staff, there have been 34 combat clashes on the Kursk direction – the junction point of Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast and Russia. Russian forces reportedly conducted 14 airstrikes, dropped 24 guided bombs, and carried out 245 shelling attacks, including nine using multiple rocket launchers.

DeepState: Russia targets key logistical villages

DeepState said Russian troops are advancing toward Khotin and Yunakivka.

“Yunakivka has many buildings that offer cover, making it ideal for Russian forces to hide, gather, and entrench,” the monitoring group noted.

They warned that if Russia secures Yunakivka and the surrounding heights, it could open the way for FPV drone attacks on the city of Sumy — the same thing Russia already does in Kherson to terrorize civilians in what’s come to be known as the “human safari.”

In a separate broadcast on Suspilne Studio, DeepState co-founder Ruslan Mikula stated that Russian forces are attempting daily incursions into northern Yunakivka.

“It is an important location logistically, capable of hosting a large number of personnel. The enemy prioritizes taking Yunakivka and is also pressing toward Yablunivka,” he said.

Evacuation from border zone begins

On 31 May 2025, Sumy Oblast Military Administration head Oleg Hryhorov issued a video message, confirming the start of a mandatory evacuation from 11 border villages. A total of 111 people have evacuated so far, with over 2,800 residents in the affected area, including 367 children.

50,000 Russian troops near Sumy, Zelenskyy says

Militarnyi notes that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously stated that approximately 50,000 Russian troops are concentrated near Sumy, forming the core of the new offensive. Ukrainian military reports indicate that Russia is using assault groups from airborne troops and special operations forces to penetrate defenses and move from the Kursk area into Sumy Oblast.

Active combat in gray zones and new push in multiple directions

Russian infantry is currently assaulting near Bilovody and Loknia, where they are making progress. DeepState notes that Vodolahy, Volodymyrivka, and Kostiantynivka are now in the “gray zone” due to ongoing fighting and lack of confirmed control.

DeepState’s Mikula further stated on Suspilne that “the enemy is conducting offensive actions from Kostiantynivka to Oleshna,” and noted Russian attempts to break through toward Myropillia on 25–27 May. Losses were reported on the Russian side, but their troops are trying to entrench along the administrative border between Ukraine and Russia.

Kremlin’s broader summer campaign

Russia appears to have accelerated its military actions on the battlefield, launching the fastest-paced offensive of 2025, The New York Times believes. The Kremlin is pushing into remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk Oblast in an apparent bid to complete its conquest of the Donbas region, including Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Military analysts cited by NYT say Russian forces improved their tactics, drone capabilities, and logistics during the winter pause. This month, they breached Ukrainian lines between Pokrovsk and Toretsk, advancing toward remaining supply hubs under Ukrainian control, according to the report.

Simultaneously, smaller gains have been noted in Sumy Oblast, where Russian troops are reportedly leveraging momentum after repelling Ukrainian incursions into the Kursk region last year.

Today, there are a lot of important updates from the Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Here, between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Russian forces have punched through a vulnerable section of the front, threatening two of Ukraine’s most strategic cities in Donbas. As the breakthrough deepens, both sides are now rushing to tip the balance before the summer offensive reaches full scale.

Recently, Russian forces made relatively rapid gains in a breakthrough between Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka. This breakthrough places key Ukrainian positions in Donbas at risk, including the logistics behind Kostyantynivka and the Myrnograd-Pokrovsk agglomeration, which would open up an axis of advance for the Russians on both Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. This vector of advance is the best chance of frontline progress for the Russians, which is why they are throwing the most forces for attacks here.

This creates a potential vulnerability for the Ukrainians in the defense of both Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Ukrainians understand that this Russian breakthrough will play a pivotal role in the upcoming Russian summer offensive in their effort to take both cities. 

The Russian offensive effort on the other frontlines surrounding Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka is relatively slow, characterized by brutal and grinding battles that lead to meager territorial gains. Meanwhile, in the area of the breakthrough, the Russians managed to advance over 10 kilometers from their initial positions at Vozdvizhenka in less than 2 months of fighting, placing them just 12 kilometers away from Kostyantinivka. Such a continued rate of advance could allow the Russian forces to reach the city during the summer, unless the Ukrainians successfully contain them and stabilize the situation.

Russians achieved these territorial gains through multi-phase assault tactics designed to systematically locate, bombard, and overrun Ukrainian positions. Russians start by probing Ukrainian defenses with small reconnaissance units made up of expendable “suicide squads”, hoping to reveal Ukrainian firing positions.

After several squads have been sent forward, the Russians are then able to accurately identify Ukrainian positions, before hitting them with intense artillery and glide bomb strikes. Following the bombardment, additional Russian infantry squads are sent forward to assess the damage and engage in close-quarters combat if any Ukrainian defenders remain. 

Meanwhile, Russian drones work to isolate the Ukrainians by monitoring and cutting off potential Ukrainian retreat or reinforcement routes, limiting their tactical flexibility. This leaves Ukrainian defenders with a difficult choice: either remain in position and risk being overrun after bombardment, or attempt a retreat under the threat of Russian drones. Regardless of the loss of positions, this Russian tactic usually results in a casualty ratio of at least three to one in favor of the Ukrainians. 

Ukrainians counter this Russian tactic by taking out the initial Russian suicide squads with mines, drone-dropped grenades, and kamikaze strikes. This ensures the Ukrainian defenders do not have to reveal their position by firing on the Russian assault groups. The implementation of these drone interceptions has reportedly increased the casualty ratio in some areas to as high as seven to one, with a number of cases going even higher. 

As a result, these Russian tactics typically succeed only when Ukrainian forces lack sufficient drone support to detect and eliminate the Russian recon squads before they reach the Ukrainian positions, and can commence their bombing strikes. 

This is why, in response to the Russian breakthrough, Ukrainians redeployed elite drone brigades to stabilize the front. The units deployed include the Phoenix drone regiment, whose elite drone operators have already started to successfully counter and destroy Russian heavy equipment and infantry on the move. 

They are further complemented by ground components of the Anne of Kiev Brigade, assigned to reinforce and defend key ground positions from the Russian onslaught while the drone units relieve the pressure. Their experience with past successful counterattacks on the western flank of Pokrovsk will enable them to conduct an active defense, and possibly even push the Russians back around their recent breakthrough. 

Overall, the Russians managed to exploit a critical breakthrough along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway, where the Ukrainians responded promptly to counter the threat. By redeploying elite drone units, such as the Phoenix Regiment, to counter Russian assaults, as well as the Anne of Kiev assault brigade, Ukrainians are effectively closing a weakness in their defensive lines. If the newly redeployed units succeed in their respective missions, they will prevent Russians from consolidating their positions and halt the advance before Russians could translate this into a larger operationally significant gains.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

An awful clash is imminent along the villages and fields south of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. An industrial town with a pre-war population of 67,000, Kostiantynivka is the last major settlement between the front line and Kramatorsk, a city of 147,000 buttressing the last line of Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk.

Capturing Donetsk is one of Russia’s top objectives in its 39-month wider war on Ukraine. Holding Donetsk is one of Ukraine’s top objectives. Both sides are surging forces into the area around Kostiantynivka. The fighting is escalating. Casualties are piling up. And the worst is yet to come.

“The occupiers are trying to advance toward Kostiantynivka,” the Ukrainian army’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade reported last week. In fact, they’ve been trying for weeks now. An assault by around 150 Russian motorcycle troops on the village of Yelyzavetivka in mid-April may have signaled the beginning of the Russian offensive. 

The 93rd Mechanized Brigade is one of no fewer than a dozen Ukrainian brigades—each with thousands of troops, thousands of drones, and hundreds of armored vehicles and howitzers—that have deployed battalions around the town. 

Some of the Ukrainian ground forces’ best units are in the area. Not just the battle-hardened 93rd Mechanized Brigade, but also the aggressive 5th Assault Brigade and the 5th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, a reorganized tank brigade with up-armored Leopard 1A5 tanks.

They’re arrayed along a 30-kilometer arc—one end anchored to the southwest in the direction of Pokrovsk, the middle running through the outskirts of Toretsk and the opposite end anchored outside Chasiv Yar, to the northeast. “In the north, Russian forces are attempting to break through from the direction of Chasiv Yar,” the 93rd Mechanized Brigade noted, “while in the south they are attacking from the Pokrovsk highway.”

Ukrainian forces and earthworks are thinnest to the southwest. Probing for gaps in the line last week, the Russians advanced swiftly in this area, carving out a 15-kilometer-deep salient beginning around Yelyzavetivka and pointing toward Kostiantynivka, another 15 kilometers to the northeast.

Kostiantynivka is now within shooting distance of Russia’s short-range attack drones and smaller artillery pieces.

Russians frustrated after failure to capture Chasiv Yar

Frustrated by their failure to fully capture Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk despite a year of costly effort, the Russians sense an opportunity in Kostiantynivka—and aren’t about to waste it for a want of resources.

A huge Russian force is gathering south of the town. No fewer than three Russian field armies—the 8th, 41st, and 51st Combined Arms Armies—are nearby. The 8th CAA is apparently taking the lead.

The attacking Russian vehicles are sporting asbestos

Russia’s asbestos tank armor didn’t work. Ukraine’s drones did.

There are more than 600,000 Russian troops in Ukraine; it’s possible one out of 10 is marching on Kostiantynivka. They’re paying in blood for every yard they gain. That initial Russian motorcycle assault on Yelyzavetivka was typical. Almost all the Russians involved in that assault were killed or wounded, but more Russians followed behind them. 

Kostiantynivka is not lost. Yes, the Russians are extending a salient toward Kostiantynivka from the southwest. But the salient “is only one of the three necessary areas where Russian forces must make further advances in order to seriously threaten Kostiantynivka,” observed the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C.

The other two areas are Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. And “Russian forces have struggled to break out” of those settlements, ISW noted. That “has likely complicated Russia’s plans for an offensive against Kostiantynivka and the wider Ukrainian fortress belt” running through Kramatorsk, according to the think tank. 

Moreover, Ukrainian forces aren’t exactly standing still in the sector. On Sunday or Monday, Ukrainian troops counterattacked the Russian salient and, according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, “pushed the enemy back slightly from the village of Zoria.”

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