Russia is accumulating missiles for autumn and winter strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure as well as for possible provocations against European NATO members, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) reported. Major General Oleh Luhovskyi, the service's first deputy head, gave the assessment to the national security advisors of European leaders, SZR said on 6 September. SZR did not say how they responded.

Russia has repeatedly tested NATO's eastern flank through drone incursions, airspace violations, and military activity, increasing pressure on the alliance's eastern members. But no Russian missile strike on NATO territory has been established as deliberate, so SZR's warning points to a potential new form of escalation rather than an established pattern.

Russia's missile buildup

SZR said Russia has accumulated about 400 hypersonic missiles of various types, without specifying which systems are included, and could produce up to 300 ballistic missiles by the end of 2026.

Russia has also deployed additional launchers in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts bordering Ukraine, according to the service.

About 60% of the enterprises involved in missile production are still not under international sanctions, SZR said, presenting that as a gap allowing the Kremlin to sustain production. The service called for urgent sanctions on at least 55 more companies still supplying Russia's military-industrial chain with electronic components and machine tools, or handling its payments.

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) has estimated that Russia can produce 60–70 Iskander-M missiles per month. In August, HUR said Kinzhal mass production had been suspended in April and that about 50 Kinzhals remained in reserve. Kinzhal is one hypersonic type among several that SZR's undivided figure of 400 may include.

Pressure on NATO's eastern flank

• Russia's military aircraft repeatedly approached NATO airspace in July, and allied fighter scrambles along the eastern flank jumped by more than 250% compared with July 2025.
• Russian drones have also approached Romania's airspace and entered Latvia's.
• A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile landed in a field in Poland during a strike on Ukraine in July, putting a Russian missile on NATO territory.