Europeans “will be represented” at the US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, and France “will be there” to make Europe’s voice heard, though he could not yet say who will represent France, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told Le Grand Jury of RTL, Public Sénat, Ouest-France, and M6 on 8 November.

Europeans did not formally take part in the January and February rounds in Abu Dhabi, yet any security guarantees for Ukraine would largely rest on them. Britain and France are preparing a force to send to Ukraine if the fighting stops and Kyiv asks, and troops from 11 countries hold its first exercise in Poland this month. For Ukraine, Europe’s place in the talks decides whether those guarantees are negotiated with the countries that would provide them. For Europe, the stakes are its own security order, since Trump has said a deal might involve all of Europe.

Peskov: no talks with Europeans on a security agreement

On 8 November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vesti’s Pavel Zarubin that Russia had held no talks with Europeans on a security agreement, unlike the Americans, and claimed Europe still could not choose a negotiator, according to Interfax. A day later, Peskov told reporters that what will take place in Abu Dhabi “are trilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the United States,” and said Europeans were apparently building their own coordination with the Americans and Ukrainians, Interfax reported.

The same day, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she had discussed the Abu Dhabi talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by phone and that the EU would be present there alongside partners. She added that freedom of navigation in the Black Sea must be restored. On 9 November, Ukraine’s chief negotiator Rustem Umerov said representatives of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO, and the European Commission would be in Abu Dhabi on the same days. Ukraine will hold separate coordination meetings with them, he added. Discussion of Europe’s security architecture should come after the war ends, Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho told reporters.

Rubio sees advances on postwar security

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Florida on 8 November that “the one thing that’s repeatedly come up is the need for security guarantees,” and that “some advances” had been made on what postwar security in Ukraine and Europe should look like, though “we obviously have to get past the conflict to get to that point.” He added that “nothing’s been finalized yet” and that envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were on their way to Abu Dhabi. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on 9 November that the security of Russia, Ukraine, and the region is the first item on the Abu Dhabi agenda, and said Moscow welcomes that.

Trump: “a little bit different shape”

Asked by CBS’s Ross Douthat in a 60 Minutes interview aired on 8 November whether he expected things to work out “with a free and independent Ukraine,” Trump said the war would end and Ukraine would “end up with a little bit different shape.” He did not say what he meant. 60 Minutes itself presented the remark as a hint at changes to Ukraine’s borders.

Støre says Europe’s security order must wait until after the war

At the same time, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told Politico he “would be cautious,” calling Abu Dhabi a stepping stone that should lead to a quick follow-up. He said the agenda could include a Black Sea ceasefire for grain shipping, a halt to strikes on energy, a front-line freeze, and prisoner swaps. Where Rubio sees advances on Europe’s postwar security, Støre said any questions about Europe’s security architecture “will have to be dealt with after the end of the war.” He argued that if Putin wanted peace, there would have been no war. Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb spoke with Putin for 90 minutes on 27 October.

Russia, meanwhile, keeps hitting Ukraine’s grid. Zelenskyy says the strikes are meant to squeeze Ukraine before the talks.