The National Bank of Ukraine reported businesses improved their economic expectations in August, with the business activity expectations index rising to 49.0 from 48.3 in July.

The index, based on monthly surveys of real-sector companies about their expected performance, uses 50 as the neutral threshold, meaning Ukrainian businesses remain slightly pessimistic but are moving toward stability.

Domestic resilience emerges

Construction companies led the optimism, with their index hitting 54.0 in August. They have stayed positive for four consecutive months as reconstruction projects and sustained domestic demand provide steady work.

Trading firms have maintained optimism for six months as new harvest supplies reach markets and consumer spending holds up.

Service companies remained the most cautious at 47.0, citing expensive logistics, higher electricity prices, and skilled worker shortages.

The drivers behind this cautious improvement include energy stability, decelerating inflation, and what the NBU calls “brisk consumer sentiment”—suggesting Ukrainian purchasing power hasn’t collapsed despite the war.

The aid lifeline making it possible

But this domestic resilience exists only because foreign partners keep Ukraine’s external accounts afloat. Balance of payments data released alongside the business survey reveals the underlying dependency.

The current account deficit nearly doubled to $4.1 billion in July compared to last year, as imports surged 19.9% while exports managed only 3.1% growth.

Foreign direct investment collapsed from $3.2 billion to just $1.1 billion in the first seven months of 2025. Instead, governments and international organizations provide the lifeline: $17.8 billion in net financial flows this year compared to just $7.3 billion last year.

Ukraine’s $43 billion reserves look healthy, but exist because donors keep filling the tank. Without this support, the domestic confidence businesses report would evaporate quickly.

Strategic implications

This combination reveals both the success and the limits of Western aid strategy. The money works—Ukraine’s economy functions and companies plan for the future rather than just surviving day-to-day. Businesses can focus on reconstruction and meeting consumer demand because external support handles the macroeconomic gaps.

But the deepening dependency raises sustainability questions.

For now, the arrangement holds: international support enables domestic stability, which maintains business confidence, which keeps the economy functioning.

Whether this virtuous cycle continues depends on factors far beyond Ukraine’s borders—donor fatigue, military developments, and shifting political priorities in supporting countries.

The cautious optimism Ukrainian businesses report may prove justified, but only if external support continues at unprecedented levels.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has instructed government officials to prepare a decision introducing a long-term moratorium on business inspections in Ukraine, the Presidential Office announced on June 27.

Zelensky discussed the moratorium during an address at the "State and Business Forum: From Dialogue to Partnership," held in Kyiv.

"I have instructed that a decision on a long-term moratorium on business inspections be prepared to protect businesses from any pressure by unscrupulous individuals in various government positions," he said.

Economic growth is a vital component of Ukrainian resilience, necessitating ongoing dialogue between the government and entrepreneurs, Zelensky said. In addition to imposing the moratorium on inspections, Kyiv will also expand the Council for Entrepreneurship Support in an effort to cultivate entrepreneurship in Ukraine.

"Even under such harsh conditions of this war, Ukraine can rely on its entrepreneurs — on our domestic Ukrainian manufacturing, our Ukrainian logistics, our Ukrainian services across all sectors — from security to everyday life, as well as on Ukrainian developments and investments," the president said.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion in early 2022 and the onset of martial law, Ukraine temporarily suspended certain business regulations, including tax inspections for businesses. Zelensky signed a law resuming tax inspections for certain businesses in December 2023.  

Now in its fourth year of full-scale war against Russia, Ukraine's economy is still attempting to recover from the massive blow dealt in 2022, when the GDP dropped by 29.1%. At the same forum on June 27, Ukraine's new Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko announced another measure meant to boost business: an audit of criminal cases related to businesses in Ukraine.

"The second priority is to finally sort out the proceedings related to business, protect business, and achieve justice in these matters," Kravchenko said.

The Prosecutor's Office will be dedicated to "ensuring the rights of investors and businesses," Kravchenko wrote on his Telegram channel on June 26. Efforts to safeguard businesses will not interfere with Ukraine's legal obligations and the regulatory reforms required for its integration into the European Union, he said.

Ukraine’s new top prosecutor known for high-profile cases, seen as Zelensky loyalist

Loyalty to the incumbent administration has been the key requirement for prosecutor generals in Ukraine. Ruslan Kravchenko, who was appointed as prosecutor general on June 21, appears to be no exception. Previously he had been appointed as a military governor by President Volodymyr Zelensky and is seen as a presidential loyalist. Kravchenko became Ukraine’s top prosecutor after a lengthy hiatus during which the position of prosecutor general remained vacant. His predecessor, Andriy Kostin, r

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov