Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg blasted Russia’s assault on Kyiv, as the death toll climbed to 19 in one of the war’s deadliest strikes.

“These outrageous attacks threaten the peace that President Trump seeks,” Kellogg wrote on X after Moscow unleashed nearly 600 drones and 31 missiles overnight.

Peace talks on the brink

The strike comes as diplomacy falters. Earlier this month, Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin ended without agreement, and a planned Zelenskyy–Putin meeting remains stalled. Kellogg warned that the Kremlin’s escalation proves Russia is still choosing the battlefield over the negotiating table.

A city under fire

In Darnytskyi district, a five-story apartment building was directly struck by multiple Russian missiles, collapsing from the ground floor up. At least 19 people—including four children—were killed, and fears remain that more are trapped beneath the rubble.

Russia launched a massive aerial strike on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities far from the front lines on the morning of 28 August, 2025.

At least 18 people have been killed in Kyiv, with another 38 injured as of this report.

Four children are among the dead, including three aged… pic.twitter.com/mKGrZRgGNE

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 28, 2025

Symbols in the crosshairs

The barrage also damaged symbols of diplomacy and industry, including the EU mission, the British Council, and the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty offices.

According to Ihor Zinkevych, a deputy of the Lviv City Council, one of Russia’s targets was a Bayraktar drone plant near Kyiv, designed to produce Turkish TB2 and Akıncı drones. Zinkevych said two missiles struck the facility, causing millions of dollars in damage. Turkish media confirmed the strike, noting it was already the fourth attack on the plant in six months.

Mourning and fallout

Kyiv declared 29 August a day of mourning, lowering flags and canceling events. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded tougher sanctions, saying:

“All deadlines are broken, dozens of diplomatic opportunities wasted. Russia must feel its responsibility for every strike, every day of this war.”

Western leaders echoed outrage: the UK summoned the Russian ambassador, while EU officials vowed new penalties.

Right now in Kyiv, first responders are clearing the rubble of an ordinary residential building after a Russian strike. Another massive attack against our cities and communities. Killings again. Tragically, at least 8 people have already been confirmed dead. One of them is a… pic.twitter.com/aukkujC9ji

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 28, 2025

Key takeaways

• 19 killed, including four children, in one of the war’s deadliest strikes.
• Alaska peace summit failed; Zelenskyy–Putin talks remain stalled.
• EU and British offices hit, Bayraktar drone plant damaged again.

On paper, Russia’s economy looks like a fortress: GDP rising, defense spending at record highs, oil billions still rolling in. No wonder many ask if sanctions have failed — or if Putin’s war economy is strong enough to sustain his war in Ukraine indefinitely. But a June 2025 report from CSIS — one of Washington’s most respected think tanks — warns that this fortress is hollow, and the cracks are already spreading.

1

Russia’s economy only shrank in 2022 but grew in 2023 and 2024. Why do experts say it’s collapsing?

Russia’s “growth” is fake — a wartime sugar high before the crash.
Yes, GDP fell 2.1% in 2022, then rebounded with 3.6% growth in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. But that wasn’t real recovery — it was deficit spending on weapons that get blown up in Ukraine.

Moscow poured a record 13.5 trillion rubles ($145B) — 6.3% of GDP — into its war machine in 2025. That kind of “military Keynesianism” doesn’t build prosperity; it just keeps factories busy cranking out tanks.

Now the bill is coming due:

• GDP growth slowed to just 1.4% in Q1 2025, with a 1.2% contraction after adjustment.

• Inflation hit 10.2% in April.

• The central bank is stuck at 21% interest rates to avoid collapse.

• The budget deficit is swelling to 1.7% of GDP.

This is classic stagflation: fake war-driven growth hiding a shrinking economy and soaring prices. Putin can brag today — but Russia is already sliding into crisis.

2

How can Russia have a labor shortage with 140 million people?

Russia is in a self-inflicted “labor famine.” Since February 2022, 1–2 million workers have vanished from its economy:

• 600k–1M fled abroad to escape the war
• 300k–500k conscripted in mobilization
• 800k volunteered to fight in Ukraine
• ~1M killed, wounded, or missing

The result: 73% of businesses are understaffed, while defense plants poach workers with salaries 40,000 rubles ($500) above civilian jobs.

The cracks are already visible:

• March 2025: manufacturing suffered its worst slump in 3 years
• April 2025: Russia’s top business lobby warned of “zero growth”
• Even Putin admitted in March 2025 that the fight against inflation was “strangling growth.”

And it’s not just Russia. Western companies that rely on Russian suppliers are watching production shrink in real time — proof that the war is choking not only Russia’s economy, but global supply chains too.

3

Why should I care about Russian inflation when I don’t live in Russia?

Because Russian inflation is already in your wallet — you just don’t see it yet.

Russia’s inflation hit 10.2% in April 2025, forcing interest rates up to 21%. That pain doesn’t stay inside Russia. To dodge sanctions, Russian firms burn $10–30 billion a year on shady commissions, and those costs get passed into the global price of oil, metals, fertilizer, and grain — the building blocks of everything from your phone to your food.

Here’s the hidden link: disrupted supply chains and higher transport/insurance costs drive up commodity prices everywhere. Russia makes critical inputs for semiconductors, aircraft parts, and agriculture. As Russia’s costs spiral, global alternatives rise too. Their inflation becomes your higher grocery bill and gas price.

4

Isn’t Russia still making billions from oil sales? Doesn’t that make its economy invincible?

Russia’s oil revenues are collapsing in slow motion — and Putin’s war budget hangs on them more than he admits.

Oil made up 42% of the budget in 2022, but by 2024 it was down to 30% — even with high global prices. Sanctions forced Moscow to sell crude at a 15% discount, with shipping to India adding $10–15 per barrel.

Here’s the danger: Russia’s 2025 budget assumed $69.7 oil, but forecasts are already down to $56. In April 2025, Trump’s tariff threats sent Urals crude below $50. Every $10 drop = $10–15B lost revenue. If oil hit $30 again — as during COVID — Russia would lose as much money as it spends on the entire war.

Bottom line: Putin can brag about oil billions, but his lifeline is a knife-edge. One global shock, and the war chest collapses.

5

If Russia has China, why would Western pressure matter?

China is keeping Russia afloat — but that makes Moscow weaker, not stronger.

In 2024, Russia imported $115B in goods from China — 72% above pre-war levels. By 2023, 76% of battlefield-related deliveries came from China and Hong Kong. And now, 53% of all Russian imports are Chinese — meaning Beijing could cripple Russia’s war effort overnight by simply enforcing existing sanctions.

Despite talk of “yuanization,” Russia still can’t escape its need for dollars and euros. Meanwhile, China enjoys steep discounts on Russian oil, gas, and raw materials.

This isn’t partnership — it’s economic colonization. Beijing gains leverage, Moscow loses sovereignty. And for the West, the pressure point is clear: make China choose between Putin and global markets, and Russia’s lifeline snaps.

6

I keep hearing Russia’s banking system is stable. What’s the real risk?

Russia’s banking system looks stable — but it’s built on quicksand.

Businesses owe $446B in loans, half to defense firms on subsidized rates of 5–6%, while everyone else pays 18–19%. At the same time, with interest rates at 21% and inflation near 9%, Russian savers get 11% real returns just by parking money in banks — deposits jumped 70% in 2024.

The entire system now depends on depositors’ trust. But here’s the trap: nearly half of government debt is floating-rate. If the central bank raises rates, debt costs explode; if it cuts, inflation spirals.

That’s the classic setup for a banking crisis — politically connected loans propped up by nervous savers. A shock — sanctions, a battlefield loss, or a ruble collapse — could spark a bank run and bring the system down in weeks.

7

How long before Russia’s war economy cracks?

Based on 2025 data, Russia can probably grind along for another 2–3 years under current sanctions — but only if nothing goes wrong.

What could speed up collapse:

• Oil < $50/barrel: Already happened in April 2025, hitting budget revenues immediately

• Stricter sanctions enforcement: Especially on China’s dual-use exports to Russia

• Global recession: Trump’s tariff threats already rattled commodity markets this spring

• Banking crisis: 21% interest rates keep savers in banks — until confidence cracks

Russia’s National Welfare Fund — the rainy-day reserve — dropped 24% in early 2025 to just ₽3.39T ($39B). At current burn rates, that cushion won’t last long; even the central bank has warned it could be emptied if oil collapses.

And remember: Russia is running its economy on war spending — defense outlays at 6%+ of GDP — the highest since the Cold War. That means Moscow’s “growth” depends on pouring money into weapons that get destroyed in Ukraine, not building lasting prosperity.

Bottom line: The system works — until it doesn’t. History says Russia might stagger on for 2–5 years, but unlike the USSR, today’s Russia can’t wall itself off. Global markets, sanctions, and war costs make it vulnerable to shocks that could accelerate the crash overnight.

For Ukraine and the West: the pressure is working. But it’s a test of stamina — keep it up, and Putin’s war economy will eventually break.

8

What this means for you

Russia’s collapse isn’t guaranteed — but the odds are rising. Labor shortages, runaway inflation, oil dependency, and record war spending are the same pressures that have broken other wartime economies.

• Investors: steer clear of Russian commodities and watch for ripple effects in global supply chains.

• Policymakers: sanctions are working, but only if pressure is steady and sustained — collapse takes years, not months.

• Everyone else: Russia is more dangerous now, but less sustainable long term. The next 2–3 years will decide whether Putin’s war economy holds — or breaks.

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A fire still burns at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery—Rostov Oblast’s only refinery—after it was struck by Ukrainian drones three days ago. The facility ranks among southern Russia’s largest, with a processing capacity of approximately 100,000 barrels per day (about 5 million tonnes annually).

The drone attack at Novoshakhtinsk is one in a recent series targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. In the past weeks, several major refineries—including Syzran, Volgograd, Novokuibyshevsk, Ryazan, and Saratov—have sustained fires, temporary shutdowns, or capacity reductions following drone and missile strikes.

Fire still rages at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov Oblast — hit by Ukrainian drones 3 days ago.

One of southern Russia’s biggest (5M t/yr). Locals face water cuts, toxic air & 4 months unpaid wages — yet workers are still forced in.

Video: exilenova+ pic.twitter.com/0O0oKip5jB

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 23, 2025

Escalating air war and energy disruption

These assaults are part of intensified air campaigns from both sides. Ukraine has increasingly struck petroleum infrastructure—refineries, depots, pipelines—while Russia retaliates with drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, civilian areas, and energy facilities.

As military expert Yigal Levin notes: “Targeting fuel infrastructure is strategic warfare—and it’s taking a heavy toll.”

Civilian hardship: water, air, and wages

Residents in Novoshakhtinsk and surrounding areas are grappling with deteriorating conditions. Water pressure has dropped sharply; some areas, like Krasny Sulin, now lack running water altogether. Air quality has become dangerously poor.

Meanwhile, workers at the refinery are still being required to come to work—despite four months of unpaid wages. Levin succinctly notes: “People are showing up—but their pay never arrives.”

How the strike happened

On the morning of 21 August, Ukrainian long-range “kamikaze” drones pierced local air defenses, despite the refinery being guarded by two Pantsir and one Tor anti-air systems. Residents reported around five explosions, which ignited the blaze.

Why this matters

• Military and economic impact: The refinery is vital for both regional fuel supply and military logistics.
• Humanitarian concerns: Communities face basic service breakdowns amid the emergency.
• Strategic priority: The targeting of energy assets underscores the growing importance of infrastructure in warfare tactics.

US Orthodox Archbishop Alexei of Sitka and Alaska has apologized for greeting Vladimir Putin during the Trump–Putin summit in Anchorage on 15 August. The moment drew sharp backlash because Putin is under an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children.

Beyond that charge, rights groups and UN investigators have documented how Russian forces under his command bombed cities like Mariupol, executed civilians in Bucha, and displaced millions. Many experts call these atrocities the direct result of the crime of aggression — the decision to invade Ukraine itself — though the ICC cannot prosecute aggression without a UN Security Council referral, which Russia can veto.

Warm words, harsh reactions

During the encounter, Archbishop Alexei told Putin:

“Russia has given us what’s most precious of all, which is the Orthodox faith, and we are forever grateful.”

He recalled Russian missionaries who brought Orthodoxy to Alaska under czarist rule, adding that when clergy visit Russia, they return saying: “I’ve been home.”

Putin replied: “Please feel at home whenever you come.”

That exchange — along with the greeting and an icon gift — prompted a scathing response from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the USA. Its bishops denounced the meeting as a “betrayal of Christian witness” in the wake of Russia’s war.

Their statement, signed by Metropolitan Antony and Archbishop Daniel, said the Russian regime is responsible for “the death of hundreds of thousands, the disappearance of countless innocents, the tearing of families apart, and the deliberate destruction of Ukraine.”

“To extend warm words of welcome and admiration to this ‘leader’ is nothing less than an endorsement of his actions,” they warned, adding that while Christians preach love and forgiveness, they “can never excuse or whitewash evil.”

Archbishop’s apology

Archbishop Alexei later admitted his actions caused “confusion and pain” and stressed they do not represent the official stance of the Orthodox Church in America (OCA):

“I accept full responsibility for the confusion and pain my actions caused. My actions in no way indicate a change in the position of the Orthodox Church in America.”

He explained the greeting followed three days of diocesan prayer for peace and was meant as hospitality, not politics.

Church leadership distances itself

Metropolitan Tikhon, primate of the OCA, emphasized the meeting was unauthorized:

“The Orthodox Church in America has clearly and repeatedly condemned the aggression against Ukraine.”

Alaska summit fallout

The apology came in the wake of the Trump–Putin summit. Despite red-carpet ceremony, the talks ended without a peace deal. Critics said the event gave Putin a platform without concessions. President Trump later threatened new sanctions if Russia fails to move toward peace.