Ukraine’s air defenses are losing the drone war. Russian engineers have made their Shaheds fly twice as high and much faster while Ukrainian cities rely on systems that can’t keep up.

The numbers are getting ugly. Ukrainian missile systems track 20 targets maximum. Russia launches dozens at once and plans to send hundreds simultaneously, according to Ukrainian outlet Texty. Ukrainian officials failed to prepare adequate countermeasures despite having the groundwork for years.

Russian upgrades are working

Original Shaheds flew low and slow — easy targets for Ukrainian mobile teams with machine guns. Not anymore.

Russians removed restrictions on Iranian engines. Current Shaheds cruise at 2,500-2,800 meters altitude hitting 200-210 km/h. Some new jet-powered variants reach 550-600 km/h.

Higher altitude puts them beyond machine gun range. Faster speeds make helicopter chases nearly pointless — choppers max out around 250 km/h, forcing 5-10 minute pursuits of individual drones while swarms pass through.

Electronic warfare used to save Ukrainian cities. Operators would spoof GPS signals, sending Shaheds into empty fields instead of apartment buildings.

That’s over. Modern Shaheds pack 12-channel “Comet” navigation systems. Where one jamming device worked before, now you need 12+ working simultaneously. The drones resist jamming from below and horizontal angles — you can only affect them from above. Good luck with that.

“We’re lucky because Russians still have problems with launchers,” notes the Texty analysis. “They can’t launch more than four drones per time unit. When they get more Shahed launchers, then we’ll be sad.”

Air defense mathematics don’t work

Each Ukrainian air defense system handles 10, 15, maybe 20 targets at once. Period. Doesn’t matter how many systems you have — launch enough drones and some get through.

Add decoy drones to the mix, and things get worse. Russia launches real Shaheds alongside “Parody” foam decoys designed to look like transport planes on radar. Operators waste ammunition on fakes while real threats slip past.

Systems need reloading time. During those minutes, drones penetrate defense perimeters unopposed. Russia currently attacks with dozens of platforms. Soon it’ll be hundreds targeting individual cities.

Germany’s Skynex system works well against low-altitude drone swarms clustered in small areas. Its 35mm programmable rounds cost $500 each and detonate near targets.

But at 2,000+ meter altitude with decoys mixed in? Effectiveness drops sharply. Shaheds get through.

Mobile teams becoming irrelevant

Ukraine’s mobile anti-aircraft groups used to be the most cost-effective drone killers. Teams with machine guns mounted on pickup trucks would hunt down low-flying Shaheds.

Current drone tactics make this nearly impossible. Shaheds approach at 2,000-2,500 meters then dive almost vertically onto targets. Mobile groups can only engage old models still flying low profiles.

Practice from recent raids shows destroying diving drones is extremely difficult. Hitting Shaheds on high-altitude routes? Nearly impossible.

Bucha Witches may be soon losing against Shaheds

“Bucha Witches” take down the drones that once hunted them

Solutions exist but production lags

Anti-Shahed interceptor drones could work. Ukraine’s been talking about them for over a year. Volunteer organizations actually use them.

“Come Back Alive” fund reports shooting down 17 Shaheds and 30 “Gerber” decoys since March. That’s it—a drop in the ocean.

The state has “significantly more capabilities than large volunteer funds” but hasn’t established industrial production. Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi reported successful drone-on-drone kills in February. Then came military bureaucracy, Defense Ministry delays, and Sukharevskyi’s dismissal. Nothing scaled.

Ukrainian forces test laser systems. They work faster than conventional weapons but need time to focus on targets. If drones approach in wide formations, even high-speed lasers can’t react everywhere simultaneously. Plus they’re expensive and mostly unavailable.

Threat keeps escalating

Russia isn’t standing still. New Shaheds carry 90-kg warheads—double the original payload. Weekly launches increased from 200 to over 1,000 by March 2025.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently warned that Russian weapons contain technology from 12 nations, including the US. Captured Shaheds reveal more than 30 Western-manufactured components—American servo drives, Japanese batteries, Canadian antennas.

Meanwhile, the US redirected 20,000 promised air defense missiles from Ukraine to the Middle East.

Texty concludes Ukraine will eventually organize new anti-Shahed defenses. Question is whether adaptation comes fast enough to protect cities from increasingly sophisticated attacks.

The drone war is becoming a race between Russian engineering improvements and Ukrainian defensive innovation. Right now, Russia’s winning.

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Why Russian Shahed explosive drones increasingly evade Ukrainian air defenses and reach Kyiv (updated)

Poland activated its air defenses and scrambled fighter jets during Russia’s largest single-night aerial assault on Ukraine, as Moscow’s unprecedented 537-projectile barrage forced NATO allies into costly defensive mobilizations near the Ukrainian border.

Polish Operational Command reported deploying “Polish and allied aircraft” while activating ground-based air defense systems and radars on high alert during the night of 29 June. The defensive operation continued until after 6 AM when threat levels decreased, with no reported violations of Polish airspace.

“Due to the combined air attack by Russia against Ukraine, Polish and allied aviation was raised into the air, and ground-based air defense systems and radars were put on high alert,” the command stated, noting that such procedures have become standard after previous incidents when Russian missiles violated Polish airspace during mass attacks on Ukraine.

The defensive mobilization occurred as Ukrainian F-16 pilot Maksym Ustymenko died repelling Russia’s most massive night attack, when Moscow launched 477 Shahed drones, 41 cruise missiles, seven ballistic missiles, and four hypersonic Kinzhal missiles—many targeting western Ukraine near the Polish border.

Poland has repeatedly activated its air defenses during major Russian attacks, including scrambling F-16 fighters in January 2024 when Moscow launched massive missile strikes against Ukrainian cities. Previous incidents have included Russian missiles entering Polish airspace and forcing emergency responses from Warsaw.

The overnight assault killed and injured dozens of Ukrainian civilians, adding to Russia’s mounting toll of terror attacks. Recent strikes have demonstrated the deadly effectiveness of Russia’s tactics, with attacks in June killing a 5-year-old boy and destroying homes in Sumy Oblast, while Kharkiv endured its most extensive attack since the invasion began earlier this month.

Poland repeatedly scrambles jets

Poland has repeatedly activated its air defenses during major Russian attacks, including scrambling F-16 fighters in January 2024, and has reported airspace violations during previous incidents.

Such responses have become routine throughout 2025, with Poland scrambling jets during Russia’s “largest attack” on the region on 9 June, a massive assault on 26 May involving 355 drones, and multiple other incidents as Moscow targets western Ukrainian regions near the Polish border.

The 29 June attack represents Russia’s largest single-night assault as Moscow systematically targets Ukrainian civilians to extract political concessions.

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F-16 pilot killed while repelling Russia’s most massive-yet night terror attack on Ukraine (updated)

Ukraine’s Air Force pilot Maksym Ustymenko, 32, died defending against Russia’s largest single-night aerial assault of the war, as Moscow launched 537 projectiles in a coordinated terror campaign targeting civilian infrastructure across the country.

The massive assault demonstrates Russia’s strategy of escalating terror attacks to pressure Ukraine into unfavorable peace negotiations. By overwhelming air defenses with record-breaking volumes of weapons, Moscow aims to demonstrate Ukraine’s vulnerability and create unbearable civilian casualties that force Kyiv to accept territorial concessions—using mass destruction as diplomatic leverage while Trump pushes for talks.

A photograph of Ustymenko was shared by Lilia Averianova, the mother of another fallen F-16 pilot, “Juice” Andrii Pylschykov:

“Max, a guy of steel. Always striving to be the best. Best at defending Ukraine. He was the super-intellect of the group, a great I.T. guy. He had big, strong wings. Big responsibility. Big dedication… Together with Andrii since the first year, together forever in the sky,” she wrote.

The wife of another Ukrainian pilot told that Ustymenko leaves behind a four-year-old son.

Russian forces deployed an unprecedented combination of 477 Shahed drones, 41 cruise missiles, seven ballistic missiles, and four hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during the 29 June overnight attack, according to Ukraine’s Air Force Command. Ukrainian defenders destroyed 475 of the aerial targets, but the massive scale overwhelmed some defensive capabilities.

“The pilot used the full range of onboard weapons and shot down seven air targets. During the last one, his plane was damaged and began to lose altitude. Maksym Ustymenko did his best to take the plane away from the settlement, but he did not have time to eject… He died like a hero!” the Air Force confirmed.

Russia launched the weapons from multiple staging areas, including Kursk, Shatalovo, Orel, Bryansk, and Millerovo in Russia, as well as occupied Crimea and Black Sea positions, as detailed by Ukrainian Air Force, demonstrating the coordinated nature of the assault designed to stretch Ukrainian defensive resources across the entire country.

Poland scrambled its jets but shot down nothing. Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defenses claimed an 88% interception rate despite the overwhelming numbers, shooting down 249 targets with weapons fire and electronically suppressing or causing 226 others to crash through electronic warfare systems.

The operation involved Ukraine’s aviation, surface-to-air missile units, electronic warfare divisions, mobile fire groups, and unmanned systems working in coordination. Debris from intercepted targets fell in eight areas across the country, per the official report.

The massive coordinated attack underscores Russia’s strategic shift toward using swarm tactics to saturate Ukrainian air defenses. The Iranian-designed Shaheds have become increasingly difficult to counter as Russia modifies their flight patterns, uses decoy drones, and launches them at higher altitudes to evade detection.

The attack comes as President Trump has suspended US military aid to Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into peace negotiations, according to multiple reports, while the US recently diverted 20,000 anti-drone rockets originally destined for Ukraine to Middle East operations before Israel’s strikes on Iran.

The loss of pilot Ustymenko highlights the personal cost of Ukraine’s air defense operations, as F-16 pilots face increasing risks from Russia’s evolving tactics and massive drone swarms that can overwhelm even sophisticated Western aircraft through sheer numbers.

The massive assault struck six locations across Ukraine, with debris from intercepted weapons falling in eight additional areas, according to the Air Force. While specific casualty figures from the 29 June attack have not yet been disclosed, the operation represents Russia’s continued escalation of its terror campaign against Ukrainian civilians, following recent patterns of strikes that have killed dozens and injured hundreds in single attacks.

The attack comes amid mounting civilian casualties from Russia’s intensified aerial campaign. Recent strikes have demonstrated the deadly effectiveness of Russia’s combined missile-drone tactics, with ballistic missiles proving particularly lethal due to Ukraine’s limited ability to intercept them without sufficient Patriot systems.

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Israel hit Iran — Iran launched drones. Now we know why the US took Ukraine’s anti-drone defenses

Shaheds become more difficult to intercept

Russian Shahed drones have become increasingly difficult to intercept as Moscow adapts its tactics through swarm launches, radar decoys, and higher-altitude flight paths. The Iranian-designed weapons cost approximately $35,000 each but force Ukraine to expend more expensive interceptor missiles, creating an asymmetric warfare advantage for Russia.

The massive night attack occurs amid acute shortages of air defense ammunition.

Ukraine received only half of the Patriot systems it requested and operates just six operational batteries out of 25 needed for full coverage. The US refuses to share its 60+ Patriot arsenal while production constraints limit global output, and Europe lines up for 1,000 additional missiles.

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Why Russian Shahed explosive drones increasingly evade Ukrainian air defenses and reach Kyiv (updated)