Eight Baltic and Nordic countries announced a joint $500 million weapons and munitions military aid package for Ukraine on 13 November.

The package is designed to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities ahead of winter, as Russia intensifies strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure. It will supply critical weapons and ammunition sourced from the United States through NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative.

Eight northern allies declare "Ukraine's security is directly connected to ours"

The countries involved - Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden - confirmed the package during the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) Defence Ministers’ meeting in Helsinki. 

In a joint statement, they reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s security, calling it “fundamental to European security” and emphasizing the need for long-term, coordinated military support.

The statement said the package is one of many ways the NB8 supports Ukraine’s ability to deter future Russian aggression. “We will not allow [Russia’s war of aggression] to succeed. Ukraine’s security is directly connected to ours,” the ministers said.

How NATO's PURL initiative pools allied funds for urgent Ukraine weapons deliveries

The Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) allows NATO allies to pool funds to purchase US-supplied weapons, munitions, and military equipment for Ukraine. 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed the announcement: “This equipment is extremely important as Ukraine enters the winter months, and deliveries through PURL are flowing into Ukraine. NATO Allies will continue to deliver essential equipment and supplies.”

The aid package will provide high-priority military equipment such as missiles, precision weapons, air defence systems, long-range artillery shells, HIMARS rockets, and guided aerial bombs. 

Norway’s Defence Minister Tore O. Sandvik noted that PURL ensures Ukraine receives urgent equipment quickly, and Sweden highlighted the package’s contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s air-defence capabilities.

Norway leads with $200M, Lithuania commits funds through 2026

Norway is contributing the largest share at roughly NOK 2 billion (~$200 million), Sweden $60 million, Denmark around 400 million Danish kroner (~$53 million), and Lithuania $30 million.

Lithuania also earmarked funds for next year and stressed the importance of using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defence spending.

Beyond weapons: Nordic-Baltic Eight expands brigade training in Poland

The NB8 meeting also addressed broader initiatives, including training Ukrainian brigades in collaboration with Baltic, Nordic, and Polish forces. Lithuania will contribute €12 million worth of equipment, ammunition, grenades, and a mobile training team to the OP-LEGIO Training Centre in Poland.

Ministers emphasized that Russia’s aggression poses a long-term threat to European security, the transatlantic community, and the rules-based international order. 

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said maintaining support for Ukraine will remain central to the NB8’s agenda during Estonia’s presidency next year.

A months-long political deadlock ended as Montenegro’s parliament approved the deployment of its troops to NATO's Ukraine training mission, according to RFE/RL Participation in the mission will be limited strictly to NATO member states’ territory. NATO’s broader role involves coordinating training for Ukraine’s security forces. Montenegro is expected to contribute to a second Ukraine-related initiative — the EU Military Assistance Mission Ukraine (EUMAM) — approved earlier this year after similar delays.

Parliament authorizes Montenegro’s troops to join NATO mission for Ukraine

On 12 November, Montenegro’s Skupština voted to allow the country’s military to participate in NATO’s security assistance and training activities for Ukraine, according to RFE/RL. The decision, passed after nine months of delay, saw 44 out of 81 lawmakers in favor, with five voting against and two abstaining.

The plan to include Montenegro in NATO’s NSATU (NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine) initiative was originally adopted by the country’s Defense and Security Council on 7 February. The council includes President Jakov Milatović, Prime Minister Milojko Spajić, and parliamentary speaker Andrija Mandić.

Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović noted the decision aligns with the support path adopted at the NATO summit in Washington last year. 

Ruling coalition split over supporting Russia or Ukraine

Despite government backing, the Democratic People's Party (DNP), part of the ruling coalition, opposed the decision. DNP lawmaker Vladislav Bojović claimed that the move could “further endanger our relations with the Russian Federation,” adding, “It would be wiser to stay neutral when it comes to other people’s conflicts.” Speaker Mandić’s party also opposes sanctions Montenegro imposed on Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used a media interview to unleash a barrage of accusations against the Baltic States, echoing the same narratives Russia once used to justify its invasions of Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War, this signals a renewed Kremlin effort to set long-term pretext conditions for a possible future attack on Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.

Lavrov escalates anti-Baltic rhetoric in major narrative shift

The Institute says Russia is "conducting multiple information operations against the Baltic States as it did to justify the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Phase Zero conditions-setting for a possible attack on the Baltic States at some point in the future." ISW, however, doesn't predict an "imminent Russian attack on the Baltics" yet.

Lavrov’s comments, given in a 11 November interview to Russian media, combined several long-running Russian propaganda claims into a single statement. He accused Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania of harboring “Russophobia,” promoting “anti-Russian” sentiment, and mistreating Russian speakers. He also alleged that the Baltic States had violated agreements with Russia and painted them as pawns of the United Kingdom. According to Lavrov, they had lost their sovereignty and were no longer truly European.

No signs of imminent attack, but groundwork being laid

ISW assessed that Lavrov’s statements are part of ongoing Russian Phase Zero operations — a strategy to set informational conditions for possible military aggression. It emphasized that such efforts can last for years and do not necessarily result in an attack. ISW said there are no indicators of imminent military preparations against NATO states.

Still, the think tank stressed that these activities echo pre-2022 Russian efforts toward Ukraine and warned against ignoring the parallels.

"ISW’s assessments that these and other activities constitute Phase Zero conditions-setting efforts are meant to call attention to the parallels with pre-2022 Russian conditions-setting efforts vis-à-vis Ukraine but are not an imminent attack warning at this time," the think tank wrote.

Ukraine has become a drone superpower, producing about 4 million unmanned aerial vehicles of various types each year. For comparison, some estimates put US military drone production at roughly 100,000 units per year, Bloomberg reports. 

Ukraine’s drone era began with Turkish Bayraktar TB2s. Ukraine purchased its first Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles in 2019. These drones have significantly strengthened the capabilities of Kyiv's forces since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war. Today, Ukraine produces most of its drones itself with the support of its allies. 

Ukraine's drone variety exceeds NATO arsenals

Now, Ukrainian companies, facing acute funding shortages, are eager to share their drone expertise and create safer production lines aimed at European armies that want to stockpile weapons.

“It’s not just the quantity of drones, it’s the variety. Probably more than all NATO countries combined right now," said RAND analyst Michael Bohnert.

That variety includes long-range strike drones, as well as inexpensive first-person-view (FPV) attack drones.

Increasingly, Ukrainian air defenses are also using interceptor drones. Ukraine and the UK plan to begin joint production of such drones in the coming months to counter swarms of Russian drones.

FlyWell wants $50 million to manufacture drones on European soil

• Some Ukrainian drone makers have already entered the EU market. For example, Skyeton opened a facility in Slovakia and has announced partnerships with Denmark and the UK. The company produces reconnaissance UAVs capable of flying for up to 24 hours.
• Another Ukrainian firm, TSIR, is now operating in Finland and is preparing to launch a production line for tactical quadcopters that can cover up to 15 kilometers and are used for reconnaissance and strikes along the front line, in a joint venture with Finnish partner Summa Defence Plc.
• FlyWell brings together several Ukrainian companies that produce aerial, ground, and maritime drones intended for reconnaissance and strikes on Russian targets from the front line to ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers. FlyWell plans to raise about $50 million to fund European manufacturing and R&D projects.

Currently, Summa Defence is self-funding production and has already created prototypes of three models that could enter mass production immediately after testing in Ukraine, CEO Yussi Holopainen said. Some of the output is intended for NATO countries, but Ukraine remains the priority.

Offices in Berlin and Copenhagen

Denmark allocated nearly $77 million this year to help Ukrainian arms manufacturers establish operations on its territory. The first project is expected to begin producing rocket fuel this year for Fire Point, a Ukrainian company developing the Flamingo cruise missile with a range of 3,000 kilometers.

Ukraine plans to open offices in Berlin and Copenhagen this year to market weapons, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 3 November. This is about joint production and the export of weapons that Ukraine can afford to sell in order to raise funds for domestic production of scarce items that Kyiv currently lacks funding for.

I am often rude about how utterly predictable financial criminals are in what they choose to buy – large watches, gold-spattered handbags, ugly yachts, etc – so I want to give a very small amount of credit to Su Binghai, a money launderer with an imagination. Okay, so he bought nine apartments in London, spending about $21 million just a week after he evaded police in Singapore. And, sure, he abandoned a collection of supercars in Singapore, all of which is tremendously dull. But then among the assets seized by Britain’s National Crime Agency (NCA) were “dinosaur remains, between 145 million and 157 million years old… of a mother and baby Allosaurus, as well as a Stegosaurus.” Dinosaurs! Aren’t they gorgeous? So much more beautiful than a boring old car.

The extinct mega-beasts were sold at a Christie’s auction last year for around $15 million, but are now in a warehouse, presumably ready to be resold, (unless the NCA plans to keep them. I can see the appeal of having something so magnificent as a dinosaur skeleton as a centrepiece in your house, although I do worry a little about the amount of dusting required, which may be why other money launderers have not invested in fossils. “I doubt that any of us will be dealing with one of these again,” said Judge Gavin Mansfield during the hearing. What a shame.

The value of the properties and fossils is a tiny fraction of the amount already recovered in Singapore in this case, which is said to have involved more than $3 billion, though it is troubling that many of the fugitives involved appear to have won effective immunity from prosecution in return for surrendering their assets.

Which cryptocurrency was involved in the scheme, I hear you ask? Well, funnily enough, it was Tether’s USDT like it always seems to be. Involvement in multiple scams has not been holding Tether back. Quite the reverse; in the first nine months of the year, it made $10 billion in profits, and expects to make $15 billion in 2025 as a whole. If Tether is not the most profitable company per employee in the world (it employs about 200 people), I’d like to know what is.

One of the few people who appears not to have been using Tether to hide illicit wealth was the former EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders. Though maybe he should have been. Reynders was recently charged with money laundering in Belgium in perhaps the strangest scheme I’ve read about this year. Reynders spent nearly $60,000 on lottery tickets in a single year.

Now, lotteries have been used by financial criminals for a long time. My favourite money laundering approach ever was one used in Puerto Rico in the 1980s when criminals would buy lottery tickets at a premium in cash, then (unconvincingly) explain to the authorities that their wealth was simply the result of weekly outbreaks of good fortune.

According to investigators, however, Reynders was doing something else. He was spending unusual amounts on lottery tickets and keeping the winnings. Why is this strange? Unlike gambling in a casino, lotteries are not a good way to launder money, because they distribute as prizes less than two thirds of what people spend on tickets, so you lose a huge amount on the trade. It’s really not very clever and, clearly, the unusual spending pattern raises the authorities’ suspicions. Reynders denies laundering money, and says he was just using private wealth. Whatever happened, he has a lot to explain.

The thankless task of crypto regulation

Reynders may not have tried to launder money via crypto, but many financial criminals do. And over in Washington, DC, regulators have got to do the boring-but-important work of figuring out how exactly the new GENIUS act controlling stablecoins will be implemented in practice. So credit to Transparency International U.S. for attempting to bend things in the direction of sanity. “A well-implemented framework can both support responsible innovation and prevent the kinds of corruption and financial crime that erode trust in financial systems and global markets,” it wrote in a letter to the Treasury Department.

Bitcoin prices may have taken a bit of a dip of late (no doubt irritating Donald Trump), but the crypto enthusiasm stoked by the White House shows no sign of abating. Senate Democrats sent a letter to the attorney general after Trump’s pardon of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao with a killer final question/essay prompt: “Do you believe President Trump’s substantial business ties to Mr Zhao influenced his decision to issue a pardon? Explain.”

Richard Teng, who now runs Binance, has denied that his company supported Trump’s own (largely moribund) stablecoin USD1 to curry favour with the first family on his predecessor’s behalf. But considering quite how much money the Trumps have made this year (Trump’s net worth has risen by $3 billion, according to Forbes), it seems unlikely they’ll concern themselves overmuch with the rules, let alone the complex, detailed rule-making around the GENIUS act. On the one hand, this leaves the field open for organisations like TI-US to push for good regulations; on the other, Trump will do what he wants, regardless of the regulations.

The Neom debacle

Trump, though, is not yet a law unto himself. Unlike, say, the Saudi royals. I have a slight obsession with Neom, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s pet development involving a ski resort, a superyacht harbour and The Line, a ludicrous mirrored linear city which a gazillion architects have been designing at a gigundous profit. Anyway, thanks to the FT, we have a deeper dive into this vainglorious horror show than we’ve ever had before.

There are many, many cars in this pile-up: the 30-storey building that would supposedly hang from the top of an arch over the harbour, despite architects warning that it would inevitably fall on everyone’s yachts below; the “hundreds of shuttle cars running back and forth” to pick up the poo because normal sewage systems couldn’t be made to work; the fact no one realised that buying more than half of the world’s steel each year to build Neom would affect steel prices; the airport shuttle envisaged without any room for luggage; the giant pumps required to circulate water in the giant marina; the disaster in store for migratory birds faced with a 500- metre high, 170-km wide mirror and so on and so forth.

“I was in a conversation one day with two physicists, quantum physicists,” says Antoni Vives, then Neom’s chief urban development officer, in a documentary about The Line. “One of them looks at the other and looks at me, and says: ‘you know what, perhaps it’s the time of the poets now. We need poets’.” No, Antoni, we need satirists. Or maybe sedatives.

A version of this story was published in this week’s Oligarchy newsletter. Sign up here.

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Ukraine’s defense companies are turning to exports to fund production and expand their operations, Bloomberg reports. European militaries are keen to use Ukraine’s battle-tested drones to boost defenses against Russian airspace violations.

Producing drones outside Ukraine allows companies to access financing, accelerate innovation, and maintain steady supply for the front line. NATO allies benefit from proven, scalable systems while Ukraine channels revenue into domestic production of advanced drones, Bloomberg notes.

Ukraine now produces millions of drones annually, ranging from long-range strike models to small first-person view (FPV) units. Ukrainian firms continue to refine a wide range of drones, from inexpensive frontline FPV models to advanced long-range and surveillance units capable of operating deep inside Russian territory.

Moving production to safer ground

TSIR, Skyeton, and FlyWell are among the companies expanding production abroad to reduce the risk of Russian attacks, Bloomberg reports. Facilities in Finland, Slovakia, and Denmark aim to supply both Ukrainian forces and allied militaries. 

Skyeton’s Slovak plant attracted over €10 million in foreign investment, while FlyWell is seeking $50 million to expand European production and develop hydrogen-powered drones. Producing outside Ukraine also gives engineers more stable supply chains and opportunities to share expertise with NATO partners.

Battle-tested Ukrainian drones enter NATO plans

Countries including Denmark, Germany, the UK, and Finland are increasingly integrating Ukrainian drones into their defense planning. Beyond supplying their own militaries, these projects help train personnel to operate unmanned systems and develop doctrines for drone-based warfare. Ukraine’s experience producing hundreds of thousands of drones annually positions it as a key contributor to NATO’s capabilities in unmanned conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced plans to open arms sales offices in Berlin and Copenhagen this year to manage co-production and exports of weapons Ukraine can spare, generating funds for domestic production of critical military hardware.

The expansion reflects a shift from a domestic-focused defense industry toward international collaboration. Ukrainian engineers, seasoned by frontline experience, produce low-cost, effective systems at a pace unmatched by European counterparts, giving NATO partners scalable solutions while maintaining Ukraine’s wartime production capabilities.

Ukraine reinstated a full mechanism for exporting domestically-produced weapons this month, marking a strategic pivot for a defense industry that largely suspended arms exports after Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion. 

Former NATO secretary‑general Jens Stoltenberg described a “painful moment” in February 2022 when he turned down Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request to impose a no‑fly zone over the country, according to his memoirs, reported by The Times.

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with forces advancing rapidly toward Kyiv and other major cities. The Ukrainian military was under heavy pressure, and the capital faced an imminent threat of occupation. NATO faced a choice: support Ukraine directly and risk provoking a wider war, or limit its involvement to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.

Stoltenberg said Zelenskyy called from a Kyiv bunker as Russian forces approached, asking NATO to block Russian aircraft, drones, and helicopters. Zelenskyy acknowledged that NATO would not send ground troops, saying he accepted the decision even though he disagreed.

Zelenskyy pointed out that NATO had previously implemented a no‑fly zone over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1990s to prevent attacks by the invading Serbian armed forces and asked for similar protection over Ukraine.

Stoltenberg told him that enforcing a no‑fly zone would require neutralizing Russian air‑defense systems in Belarus and Russia, and that any engagement with Russian aircraft could trigger a full-scale war between NATO and Moscow.

He said the moment was “extremely painful” because he feared the call might be Zelenskyy’s last. Stoltenberg emphasized that, despite the refusal, the decision not to deploy NATO ground troops or enforce a no‑fly zone was correct under the circumstances.

He also noted that Western military support to Ukraine was often “too little and too late,” suggesting that if Kyiv had received sufficient backing earlier, Russia might have reconsidered a full-scale invasion, judging it too risky.

Britain is deploying military personnel and equipment to Belgium after a series of drone incursions disrupted air traffic and raised fears of Russian hybrid operations, the BBC reported on Sunday.

A growing number of unexplained drone incursions across Europe in recent months has alarmed governments and aviation authorities. Sightings in Belgium, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have disrupted flights and raised fears of Russian hybrid activity aimed at testing air defenses and spreading uncertainty. 

UK Chief of Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton said the move followed a request from his Belgian counterpart earlier in the week. He called it “plausible” that the drones were ordered by Moscow, though no evidence has been confirmed. 

Belgium’s main airport, Zaventem, was briefly closed on Thursday after drones were spotted nearby, while others were seen over a military base.

Defence Secretary John Healey said the deployment showed the importance of allied coordination “to defend, deter and protect our critical infrastructure and airspace.” 

Members of the Royal Air Force’s 2 Force Protection Wing, previously used in anti-drone operations during the 2024 Paris Olympics, are expected to take part. Germany has also pledged support with anti-drone measures.

The incidents forced Brussels Airlines to cancel or divert dozens of flights, affecting some 3,000 passengers.

Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken acknowledged there was no proof of Russian involvement but said the threat had grown into a “serious” regional issue affecting both civilian and military infrastructure.

While Moscow denies involvement, European officials say the incidents fit a broader pattern of covert pressure tactics linked to the war in Ukraine.

Hungary became the first NATO ally to secure exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy when President Donald Trump granted Prime Minister Viktor Orban a one-year waiver during their 7 November White House meeting, a White House official confirmed to Reuters.

The exemption allows Hungary to continue purchasing Russian oil and gas in exchange for over $1.4 billion in Hungarian commitments to US nuclear, defense, and energy purchases. The move marks a significant breach in Western sanctions against Russia, as Orban—who has vowed to veto Ukraine's EU accession and opposes its NATO membership—openly aligned with Trump in characterizing the war as unwinnable and positioning both leaders as the sole "pro-peace" voices in the West.

This development threatens Ukraine's strategic position because it weakens the coordinated sanctions regime designed to constrain Russian energy revenues that fund Moscow's war effort, while emboldening an EU and NATO member to maintain financial flows to Russia and block Ukrainian integration into Western security structures.

What happened at the White House

Trump welcomed Orban for a bilateral meeting and lunch that yielded immediate economic and diplomatic results.

Politico reported that Hungary signed a memorandum of understanding on civil nuclear cooperation valued at $20 billion, including construction of 10 small modular reactors in Budapest using US nuclear technology. Hungary also committed to purchasing $114 million in nuclear fuel from US-based Westinghouse, $600 million in liquified natural gas, and $700 million in defense materials.

The centerpiece of Orban's visit was securing relief from US sanctions targeting Russian energy. According to Reuters, a White House official confirmed Hungary received a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Trump justified the decision by citing Hungary's landlocked geography, stating "it's very difficult for him to get the oil and gas from other areas" and noting that Hungary lacks seaports for alternative energy imports.

The exemption contradicts Trump's previous pressure on European nations to cut Russian energy purchases to economically isolate Moscow.

BBC analysis noted that Hungary and Slovakia together have paid Russia $13 billion for oil between Russia's February 2022 invasion and the end of 2024, providing critical hard currency to Moscow despite Western sanctions efforts.

Why this matters for Ukraine's security

The sanctions exemption directly undermines Ukraine's defensive capabilities by preserving Russian energy revenues that finance military operations. Russian oil and gas sales remain Moscow's primary source of hard currency for weapons procurement, troop salaries, and military industrial production—the economic foundation sustaining Russia's invasion.

More strategically, the exemption creates the first formal crack in the unified Western sanctions architecture. If a NATO and EU member can obtain preferential treatment on Russian energy, other nations may seek similar exemptions, accelerating the collapse of coordinated economic pressure that has been one of the West's primary non-military tools against Russian aggression.

The exemption also rewards Orban's obstructionism toward Ukraine within European institutions. Politico reported that Orban has declared he would veto Ukraine's accession to the European Union and opposes Ukrainian NATO membership—positions that directly contradict the policies of most NATO allies and EU members who view Ukrainian integration as essential to long-term European security.

Orban's opposition to Ukrainian victory and Western support

During the White House meeting, Orban openly expressed skepticism about Ukraine's ability to prevail militarily against Russia. When Trump asked whether Orban believed Ukraine could win the war, Orban responded evasively: "Miracle[s] can happen," according to Politico. This framing aligns with Trump's characterization of the war as unwinnable through military means and contradicts the position of NATO leadership and most European governments that sustained military aid is essential to Ukrainian defense.

Orban described the US and Hungary as the only "pro-peace" governments addressing the Russia-Ukraine war, and characterized other European nations as "misunderstanding" the conflict by believing Ukraine can prevail on the battlefield, according to the Politico report. This rhetorical positioning isolates Ukraine diplomatically by suggesting that support for Ukrainian military resistance represents a misguided approach rather than legitimate defense of sovereignty.

Trump also revived plans to host a peace summit in Budapest with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Ukraine. Last month, Orban was reportedly offered the opportunity to host such a summit, though that plan "quickly disintegrated," Politico reported. During the 7 November meeting, Trump stated: "If we have it, I'd like to do it in Budapest"—suggesting Hungary could serve as the venue for negotiations that would likely marginalize Ukrainian input and European perspectives on territorial integrity and security guarantees.

The trade package and Hungary's pivot

The economic package Hungary committed to represents a significant financial outlay designed to demonstrate reciprocity with the Trump administration. The BBC reported that the nuclear agreement includes construction of 10 small modular reactors valued between $10 billion and $20 billion, which Hungary needs to power expanding Chinese battery manufacturing plants around the country. These smaller nuclear facilities face fewer construction delays and licensing complications than traditional large-scale plants.

Hungary also agreed to purchase $114 million in nuclear fuel from US-based Westinghouse for its Paks 1 nuclear power station, which was built by the Soviet Union in the 1980s and currently supplies approximately 40% of Hungary's electricity needs, according to the BBC. The US agreement to lift nuclear sanctions on Hungary may help restart the long-delayed Paks 2 expansion project, which has been financed and designed by Russia's Rosatom but faces persistent technical and licensing obstacles.

Orban framed the visit as the beginning of "phase two" in Hungary's improving relationship with the Trump administration, referencing what he characterized as "politically motivated sanctions" from the Biden administration against his top aide, Antal Rogan, who was sanctioned for corruption allegations, Politico reported.

Implications for Western unity and Ukrainian support

The meeting creates several concerning scenarios for Ukraine and the broader Western alliance. If Trump's precedent encourages other nations—particularly those with less stable democratic institutions or closer ties to Russia—to request similar exemptions, the coordinated sanctions regime could fragment rapidly. The divergence between Hungary's position and that of other NATO and EU members will deepen existing tensions within both institutions, undermining the unified deterrence posture that underpins Ukrainian security.

The exemption complicates Congressional support for Ukraine. Congress controls military aid to Kyiv and now faces questions about backing a country while its NATO ally undermines sanctions on Russia's main revenue source. Trump's willingness to host peace talks in Budapest, paired with Orban's skepticism about Ukrainian victory, signals negotiations could pressure Ukraine into territorial concessions and forced neutrality.

The BBC noted that critics argue energy dependence on Russia is merely being replaced by energy dependence on the US, while the Orban government contends it is achieving greater diversity of supply. However, the one-year timeframe for the exemption—expiring just after Hungary's April 2026 election—suggests the waiver is designed primarily to boost Orban's domestic political position rather than address structural energy security concerns.

Read also:

• Sanction me softly: Trump, Orbán, and the oil that binds them
• Europe spends € 2 billion a month on Russian oil and LNG—more than its aid to Ukraine

Amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Czech Republic—Ukraine's major ally in the EU—may reduce its military assistance to Kyiv under the new government forming around presumptive Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, according to Politico.

Czechia may shift from arms to aid

In his first international interview, Filip Turek — a former MEP from the far-right Motorists party and likely to become the next foreign minister — said Prague will maintain its NATO commitments and respect for international law. But he emphasized that the government will "prioritize diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine" and "mitigate risks of conflict in Europe, shifting from military aid funded by the national budget to humanitarian support and focusing on Czech security needs."

He presented this as a shift away from direct involvement, stating the goal was to avoid escalation that might threaten Czechia’s energy supply or "economic stability."  

Turek did not announce immediate changes in Czechia’s stance on Russia, but pointed to a broader focus on sovereignty and non-intervention. He said this signaled a so-called “cautious, interest-based approach,” echoing the position of Hungarian authorities, who have expressed hope that Prague will become an ally in resisting EU efforts to maintain strong military backing for Ukraine.

Controversy follows Turek’s appointment

Politico noted that Turek’s expected appointment has already sparked domestic controversy. He has faced criticism for allegedly posting racist, sexist, and homophobic messages on Facebook. Turek denies the accusations and is pursuing legal action. Another figure from the Motorists party, Petr Macinka, tapped for the post of environment minister, has also drawn scrutiny. Macinka previously called human-caused climate change “pure propaganda.”

Every time North Korea deepens its support for Russia's war in Ukraine, South Korea promises to "reconsider" arming Kyiv directly. The announcements come with stern language about crossing red lines. Then nothing happens.

But focusing on what Seoul isn't doing misses what it has accomplished: pioneering an indirect support model that's proven both scalable and sustainable.

Through systematic defense exports to Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, South Korea has enabled equipment transfers to Ukraine while navigating legal constraints and diplomatic sensitivities. This approach offers a blueprint other nations facing similar restrictions could replicate.

South Korea’s defense industry

South Korea has rapidly become one of the world’s major arms exporters. Military hardware like K2 Black Panther main battle tanks, K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, and the Chunmoo multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) have become bestsellers.

The $13.7 billion deal that Poland signed with South Korea in 2022 marked the country’s arrival as a global defense supplier, not just a regional one. For Kyiv, such a trajectory carries important implications.

While many Western defense industries struggle with slow production cycles and byzantine bureaucratic processes, South Korea’s defense industries are government-funded, export-oriented, and vertically integrated. South Korean factories can deliver major weapons items within months, not years. In the war of attrition that Ukraine faces, this production speed matters as much as technical specifications.

This production efficiency forms the foundation of the indirect support model, enabling South Korea to reinforce Ukraine’s warfighting capability without violating its own policy.

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Why indirect support, not direct transfers

South Korean law limits direct lethal weapons exports to countries involved in active conflicts. . This restriction reflects both constitutional principles and South Korea's complex security environment—particularly concerns about antagonizing China and Russia while managing the North Korean threat.

But legal constraints didn’t mean inaction. Instead of opting for a direct arms transfer, South Korea has found indirect ways to reinforce Ukraine’s defense through its neighbors — an approach that maintains diplomatic equilibrium while sustaining the flow of weapons supply.

How the mechanism works

Poland, Romania, and the Baltic countries serve dual roles: frontline NATO member states and crucial logistics hubs for Ukraine’s war effort. By expanding arms deliveries to these countries, South Korea has reinforced the strategic depth of Ukraine’s neighbors.

Poland began transferring Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine in 2022, with over 200 donated by some accounts in the early phase of the war. In August 2022, Warsaw signed an executive contract to acquire 180 South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks, with the first deliveries arriving in December 2022.

This rapid procurement of modern replacements appears to have enabled Poland to donate large portions of its older T-72 inventory during 2022-2023. The same pattern applied to artillery: South Korean K9 howitzer deliveries freed Warsaw to transfer Krab self-propelled howitzers—platforms based on the K9 design—to Kyiv.

Polish officials could justify depleting their Soviet-era tank inventory because South Korean replacements were guaranteed and arriving quickly. Without the K2 contract, Poland's transfers would have stopped after initial batches to preserve domestic defensive capacity.

Meanwhile, Romania has signed contracts for K9 howitzers, and the Baltic countries are pursuing similar acquisitions. If South Korea accelerates such defense exports, it could bolster NATO’s eastern flank and indirectly reduce Ukraine’s security burden. Furthermore, such procurement would contribute to interoperability enhancement within NATO since most of South Korea’s weapons systems have been designed in accordance with Western communications and logistics standards.

Eventually, South Korea has risen as a silent guarantor of the resilience of Ukraine’s neighboring countries and is helping to ensure that the pipeline of equipment and deterrence remains continuously open.

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Filling up the security vacuum, faster than the West

Ukraine’s allies often face delays in heavy equipment manufacturing and procurement—tanks, artillery, and air defense systems frequently require multi-year timelines. South Korea operates on a different schedule.

Once Poland signed the contract, South Korean factories immediately adjusted their production, and the first installment of K2s and K9s was delivered within a year. This speed helps fill credibility gaps when Western industries face production bottlenecks or political gridlocks. While Washington and Brussels debate supplemental packages, South Korean factories build and ship.

Limitations and trade-offs

The indirect model has constraints. It takes longer than direct transfers—equipment flows through an additional link in the supply chain. It doesn't address Ukraine's most urgent needs like air defense systems, which require direct channels. And there's a legitimate question about scale: how much equipment can actually flow through backfilling versus new production?

Yet these limitations may be preferable to the alternative. South Korean public opinion polls show 82% opposition to direct weapons transfers to Ukraine. Attempts at direct support would likely face legal challenges, strain relations with China and Russia, and potentially deliver only token amounts. The indirect mechanism, while slower, enables larger-scale transfers that can be sustained over years rather than months.

In wars of attrition, sustainability often matters more than speed. Poland's $13.7 billion commitment suggests the ceiling for indirect support exceeds what direct transfers would likely achieve given domestic and diplomatic constraints.

Policy recommendations

For Seoul: Formalize what's now ad hoc. Establish a trilateral cooperation office staffed by Defence Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) officials, NATO’s procurement specialists, and representatives from Poland and Romania. This office would track equipment flows in real time—when Poland transfers tanks to Ukraine, Seoul would receive immediate notification to accelerate replacement deliveries. Additionally, establisha dedicated logistics and maintenance hub in Central Europe to sustain long-term operational readiness for South Korean weapons systems operating in NATO countries.

For Washington: Integrate South Korea’s production cycle into NATO supply-chain. Include South Korean defense firms in NATO’s industrial expansion initiatives or joint production projects. This diversifies suppliers and strengthens transatlantic defense capacity.

For Kyiv: Establish industrial cooperation offices both in Kyiv and Seoul to track backfill mechanisms. Pursue co-production projects in areas like drones and armored vehicles to deepen bilateral defense cooperation and reinforce Ukraine’s industrial capability in the long run.

For other constrained allies: Study the South Korean model to design politically feasible support strategies that sustain global deterrence without violating domestic political red lines.

Conclusion

Seoul's indirect support model represents more than a workaround for legal constraints. It demonstrates that constrained allies can provide meaningful, sustained support through systematic backfilling arrangements. If Japan, the OAE, and other capable nations replicate this approach, Ukraine's support network could expand significantly without requiring direct transfers that many countries cannot politically or legally provide.

The debate shouldn't be whether South Korea should abandon indirect support for direct transfers. It should be which other countries will adopt Seoul's blueprint.

Ju Hyung Kim

Dr. Ju Hyung Kim serves as President of the Security Management Institute, a defense think tank affiliated with the South Korean National Assembly, where he advises the Republic of Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff, Ministry of National Defense, and other key defense organizations. He holds a doctorate in international relations from Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS).

Editor's note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press' editorial team may or may not share them.

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[L'article Êtes-vous davantage aveuglés par les lumières des autres voitures?   a d'abord été publié dans InfoBref.]

Prague, which supplied Ukraine with 850,000 large-caliber shells in 2025 under the so-called “Czech Initiative,” has sharply changed its position on aid to Kyiv following the election victory of the right-wing populist ANO movement led by Andrej Babiš, Politico reports.

Throughout his campaign, Babiš criticized Western military assistance to Ukraine and emphasized the need for neutrality, effectively arguing that Kyiv should be left to face Russian aggression on its own.

The end of the pro-Ukraine consensus

Filip Turek, an ultranationalist politician expected to become the next Czech foreign minister, stated that his government will uphold the country’s NATO commitments and international law but will “prioritize diplomatic efforts” to end the war and shift from military to humanitarian aid, focusing instead on “Czech security needs.”

Prague seeks “neutrality” over backing Kyiv

Turek insists that Prague’s official stance on Russia “will not change,” yet the new government plans to emphasize sovereignty and non-interference, aiming to “avoid escalation that could threaten the Czech Republic’s energy security or economic stability.”

This marks a potential pivot from Prague’s active leadership in European support for Ukraine to that of a neutral observer, or even a restraining voice within the EU.

Turek’s rhetoric echoes that of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, whose government systematically blocks EU aid initiatives for Ukraine. Brussels officials are already referring to Prague as a potential new ally for Orbán, one that may advocate for a ceasefire rather than supporting Ukraine's victory.

Last week I went to Dubai. I didn’t much like it; Dubai feels as if the brief was to build a city but to leave out all the things that make cities good. Then again, I was there for a crypto conference. And my overall impression of that was – if Western sanctions are indeed shutting Russians out of the world economy, someone should tell the Russians.

The free ice cream at the gate was sponsored by a crypto company promising seamless exchanges between roubles and the dollar stablecoin USDT; an exhibitor offered to deliver you cash in an hour when you transferred them some crypto; and the title sponsor was A7A5, fresh from being sanctioned by the European Union, but very much alive, kicking, and cheerfully distributing stickers to people who took a spin on its wheel of fortune.

The centre of the hall was dominated by a crypto-trading competition, in which a number of people sat behind screens and sought to make a profit while against the clock. Despite the best efforts of two fast-talking Russian MCs, as a spectator sport, it had all the charm of watching an HR department finishing up the month’s payroll. Still, the competition drew the biggest crowd simply for the lack of other things going on.

None of the whales that might once have come to a Dubai crypto conference were present, now all the action has spectacularly moved to Washington, DC. Check out this Reuters investigation into how much cash The Trump Organization has made in just the first six months of 2025: “the U.S. president’s family raked in more than $800 million from sales of crypto assets in the first half of 2025 alone”, with “potentially billions more in unrealized ‘on paper’ gains”, mostly from foreign sources.

Those who did make it to Dubai intoned the usual verities about crypto ushering in a new age of liberty, despite the huge contradictions all around them. Particularly bewildering was a panel featuring Vít Jedlička, a Czech libertarian and founder of “start-up nation” Liberland, alongside Nabil Arnous, whose job is to bring investment into “Innovation City”, a newly-renamed AI-powered free trade zone in the absolute monarchy that is Ras Al Khaimah, one of the seven emirates that make up the UAE. The blockchain is powerful indeed if it can unite people from such supposedly opposite political poles.

Even more head-scratching to me though was a presentation by Reeve Collins, who co-founded Tether and was an early advocate of all things crypto, He came to Dubai to pitch his idea for “white label” stablecoins which would allow companies to put their name on a dollar-pegged cryptocurrency while leaving all the hard work of running the blockchain to someone else.

Why might companies want to do that? Because every time they sell something, they get to collect even more data about their clients than they already do, as well as earning profit from issuing money that currently goes to the government. 

“Since this is programmable money, you get real data on all of the users, and you get to understand who are the power-users, who deserves more, who deserves to be rewarded,” Collins said. “This is loyalty points times a thousand. It really will supercharge what companies are able to offer their users, so they'll be able to extract more value.”

I kept expecting someone to speak up and point out how far his vision had strayed from cryptocurrencies as a tool for individual autonomy, rather than a tool that enables the world’s largest corporations to frack humanity even harder than they are now. But no one did. Instead, the conference moved onto a panel about how governments couldn’t be trusted.

At some point the music will stop, and none of us will have chairs, and there will be an almighty blow-up. The prospect slightly terrifies me.

Kyrgyzstan's crypto compulsion

For now, though, the music is very much still playing. Particularly in places like Kyrgyzstan, which seems to be doubling down on its strategy of becoming a ‘cryptatorship’ like El Salvador. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, the crypto billionaire who pleaded guilty to violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws and was recently pardoned by Trump – though the U.S. president claimed not to know Zhao –  headed to Bishkek to talk up its transformation. “Had a great time in Kyrgyzstan in the past two days. I encourage more crypto companies to explore the country too,” he Xed.

There are already a number of crypto companies in Bishkek, including the sanctioned A7A5, and their close connections with the Kyrgyz government are of great interest to the country’s journalists. However, since Kyrgyzstan’s best investigative outlets – Kloop, Temirov Live and Ayt Ayt Dese -- have just been labelled as extremists, it will be difficult for reporters to bring attention to their findings.

“This is the first time in the history of Kyrgyzstan when media outlets have been labelled extremist,” said Kloop in a statement. “Now it is dangerous to like or share outlets’ material, or to circulate it. That could all be considered support for extremist organisations and the circulation of extremist material.” At least, “watching and reading it is currently safe.”

There used to be something admirable about Kyrgyzstan’s bloody-minded refusal to become a dictatorship like the other republics of Central Asia. Now there is something grotesque about the fact that it is the lure of crypto, a technology supposedly intended to enhance freedoms, that is helping to cement autocracy. The country is holding snap parliamentary elections on November 30. The president’s party, unsurprisingly, is expected to do very well.

Watching Kyrgyzstan heading towards autocracy is a reminder that the only plausible long-term solution to kleptocracy is for rich countries to stop enabling it. If Westerners started living up to their professed values, and made it impossible for crooks to buy property and launder money in the West, it would reduce the appeal of being one. 

A version of this story was published in this week’s Oligarchy newsletter. Sign up here.

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The North Atlantic Alliance will allocate $60 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2026, according to Patrick Turner, head of NATO's representation in Ukraine, in an interview with Suspilne.

"Last year, the allocation was $50 billion, next year it will be $60 billion — this is very large and practical support," Turner told Suspilne.

The funding represents half of Ukraine's projected $120 billion defense budget for 2026. Turner explained that the Ukrainian government has informed its partners, including NATO, that it will finance half of this amount domestically, while international partners will cover the remainder.

Four aid packages have already been announced under the PURL initiative (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List), according to Turner. "Aid under these packages has either already been provided or is still in the process of arriving in Ukraine," he said. The diplomat said that work continues on organizing and financing subsequent packages.

Turner identified Ukraine's defense as NATO's primary near-term priority. "The most reliable way to do this is military support," he said, describing the PURL initiative as "vitally necessary support" and a key element in overall military assistance from Alliance members.

Beyond lethal aid, NATO operates the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP), which provides non-lethal support across multiple areas. "It covers both assistance related to battlefield conditions and long-term programs, such as support for hospitals or assistance to veterans," Turner said.

The official highlighted NATO's interest in Ukrainian defense innovation. "NATO wants to work with Ukrainian industry and innovation. We need to learn how you transition from creating a capability concept to delivering weapons for battlefield use in a matter of weeks," Turner said.

A joint center in Poland studies and implements combat experience and assists in countering battlefield threats, according to Turner. He also emphasized Ukraine's progress on reforms that NATO members expect from potential members.

Inside the PURL initiative

The United States and NATO signed the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List agreement on 14 July, enabling European countries to purchase American weapons for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that under the agreement, Kyiv could receive large quantities of air defense systems, missiles, and ammunition.

Denmark allocated approximately 580 million Danish kroner ($84 million) through PURL, Sweden contributed $275 million, and Norway provided approximately $135 million. The Netherlands financed the first aid package under PURL worth 500 million euros ($541 million), and Germany has also joined the program.

The first military equipment under the US-NATO PURL agreement arrived in Ukraine in September. Following a meeting with Rutte on 24 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that PURL funding reached $2.1 billion within two months of the program's creation.

Poland is continuing its investigation into Russian drones that crashed on its territory during the 9–10 September airspace breach, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The remains of the UAVs, which entered Polish airspace amid Russia’s drone assault on Ukraine, are still under forensic examination by military counterintelligence experts and prosecutors.

Tusk inspects drone wreckage as probe continues

Prime Minister Tusk posted a video on 3 November from a facility belonging to the Military Counterintelligence Service, where the wreckage is being stored and examined. In the video, he stands in front of debris from the Russian Gerbera drones that fell during the incursion. The official doesn't mention the name of the drones.

“This is how every enemy drone ends, every Russian drone that enters Polish territory,” he said. “We are working on it. That’s why we are investing billions, billions of zlotys in a modern Polish army, in modern Polish services, to secure Polish skies and Polish land against such objects.”

In a caption accompanying the video, posted on X, he added: “Every enemy drone will end the same way.”

NATO partners involved in the examination

Special Services Coordinator Tomasz Siemoniak confirmed that the investigation is still under way. He wrote that experts from the Military Counterintelligence Service and the prosecutor’s office are “thoroughly analyzing all elements connected to this situation.”

He said allied services are also involved in the process. Tusk personally reviewed the current findings of the probe on 3 November.

The September drone incursion

On 9 September, between 19 and 23 Russian drones crossed into Poland’s airspace during a mass UAV and missile attack on Ukraine. The incursion occurred via both Ukraine and Belarus, triggering a Quick Reaction Alert involving Polish F-16s and other NATO aircraft. A few drones were shot down by allied forces, while others crashed uncontrollably in various parts of Poland. Several wrecks were discovered days or weeks later.

[L'article Le gouvernement fédéral lance contre Stellantis un processus de résolution des différends  a d'abord été publié dans InfoBref.]

NATO fighter jets conducting air policing missions in the Baltic states scrambled three times last week to identify and escort Russian military aircraft, Lithuania's Ministry of Defence announced, according to LRT.

On 27 October, NATO aircraft took off to identify a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane flying through international airspace from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad Oblast. The aircraft was operating without an activated radar transponder and without a flight plan, though it maintained radio contact with the Regional Air Traffic Control Centre (RSVS).

Two days later, NATO fighters scrambled again to identify an Il-78 tanker aircraft traveling from Kaliningrad Oblast to mainland Russia.

On 30 October, NATO jets identified and escorted a Russian Il-76 transport aircraft, also flying from Kaliningrad Oblast to mainland Russia. Both the tanker and transport aircraft flew with their radar transponders activated and maintained radio communication with RSVS, but only the tanker had filed a flight plan, the Lithuanian defence ministry specified.

The incidents form part of a broader pattern of Russian military flights near NATO airspace. On 28 October, a pair of Polish MiG-29 fighters intercepted a Russian Il-20 over the Baltic Sea. Polish MiG-29s scrambled again on 30 October to intercept another Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea, marking the third such interception by Polish forces within a week when they scrambled once more on 31 October.

Belgium, home to NATO's headquarters, has acknowledged the security problem to counter waves of drones spotted in many European states this fall. The country has admitted it is struggling to deal with the targets spying on a critical military base that hosts its advanced fighter jets, Business Insider reports.

Theo Francken, the Belgian defense minister, said on 2 November that the country detected at least three large drones flying high above the Kleine-Brogel air base in a single night.

Drones in the sky over Kleine-Brogel, where nuclear weapons are reportedly stored

The base, in northeastern Belgium, houses the country’s fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcons, and Brussels plans to station its new F-35 Lightning II aircraft there.

It is also believed that the US stores several dozen nuclear weapons at Kleine-Brogel as part of its nuclear deterrence strategy in Europe.

Francken said that a deployed drone jammer failed to neutralize the drones. He suggested that the failure might have been caused by issues with distance or by the jammer not being tuned to the correct radio frequency.

He added that a police helicopter and several vehicles were mobilized to pursue one of the drones, but they eventually lost track of it after following the system for several kilometers.

Francken said that “additional counter-drone air systems are urgently needed.”

The Kremlin's shadow over Europe

Although he did not specify who was operating the drones, European leaders have repeatedly suggested that Russia is behind a series of recent similar incursions into NATO territory.

On 28 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia employed oil tankers to launch and control drones targeting European nations. This way, the launch of drones may be invisible.

Drone warfare experience from Ukraine is shaping Europe's new air defense

A series of incidents has pushed Europe to look for cost-effective ways to counter enemy drones, which are often much cheaper than the interceptors NATO has traditionally relied on for aerial threats.

Some NATO allies, including Denmark and Poland, have sought to strengthen their air defenses with help from Ukraine, which frequently faces hundreds of Russian drones in a single night.

The UK and Germany have ordered a new generation of highly mobile floating bridge systems, named TRITON and Schwimmschnellbrücke 2, Defense Express has reported. These new systems will replace the older M3 Amphibious Rig, potentially freeing them up for transfer to Ukraine.

This represents a strategic enhancement for European conditions, where rivers and water obstacles pose serious challenges for military units.

Rapid crossings: modern technology makes the impossible possible

The WWGC (Wide Wet Gap Crossing) project will be implemented by General Dynamics European Land Systems (GDELS).

The new systems are mounted on all-wheel-drive wheeled platforms and can quickly transition from travel mode to operational mode, functioning as either a pontoon bridge or ferry.

Compared to the M3, they offer better mobility, off-road capability, and faster deployment, which are critical for modern battlefields and for UAV operations.

Allies building the defense line of the future

The bridges will be integrated into the 130th UK-German multinational bridge battalion in Minden, which will play a key role within NATO and will be compatible with equipment from other allied forces.

The exact UK investment is not yet known, but Germany will pay €53 million for the initial contract, with optional procurements totaling another €331 million. An additional €104 million will be spent on related project agreements.

Overall, these bridge systems are vital in Europe, where rivers and other waterways must be crossed efficiently.

Highly mobile bridging solutions enable units to traverse obstacles more quickly and reliably than by constructing permanent bridges or relying solely on the amphibious capabilities of armored vehicles.

Canada has filed court proceedings to seize a Russian-registered Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft that has been grounded at Toronto Pearson International Airport since February 2022, with plans to transfer it to Ukraine if the forfeiture is successful.

Foreign Minister Anita Anand announced the government's court action on 31 October during the Group of Seven energy and environment ministers' summit in Toronto. The aircraft is owned by the Volga-Dnepr Group, a company Canada has placed under sanctions.

"The Antonov aircraft stands as a powerful symbol of accountability," Anand said at a news conference. "Those who enable Russia's war will face consequences and Ukraine will not be left to rebuild alone."

The An-124 ranks among the world's largest cargo aircraft. Canadian officials have previously indicated Russia could use the plane to transport military supplies in support of its war against Ukraine.

According to Anand, determining the plane's ownership structure proved complex. The government launched its court action earlier this year, and officials are now exploring multiple pathways to transfer the aircraft to Ukraine, including both judicial and legislative processes.

"I will say that Russia completely obliterated some of Ukraine's Antonov aircraft that were in Ukraine at the beginning of the war. And so this is in a sense replenishing the Antonov fleet," Anand said.

Bloomberg reports that the Attorney General of Canada initiated the forfeiture proceedings in May 2025 for the An-124, known as "Ruslan," which belongs to the Russian airline Volga-Dnepr.

During her opening remarks at the summit, Anand condemned Russia's strategy of "barbarically attacking Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, kindergartens, apartment blocks, seniors' homes and hospitals," as well as its strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The Canadian government also announced it will accelerate the disbursement of the remaining C$10 million ($7.1 million) from a C$70 million commitment for Ukraine's power grid reconstruction, allowing those funds to repair facilities damaged by Russian attacks.

The war has reached orbit. Europe must prepare its own space capabilities to defend itself, as Russia is developing laser weapons that could be deployed from space, European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius, according to the European Commission. 

“The defense of space – and using space for defense is only becoming more urgent, because we are already under attack - also in Space," Kubilius stressed.

“Putin will be ready to test NATO’s Article 5”

Kubilius emphasized that space is now a central element of Europe’s defense readiness.

"We need to be ready before 2030. Because Putin will be ready to test NATO Article 5. And without space, there will be no defence readiness,” he claimed.

The Commissioner said that satellites play a decisive role on the battlefield: in Ukraine, they help coordinate defense, communications, and drones, while Russian satellites guide bombs and missiles.

Russian lasers, spy satellites, and the European Space Shield

“Russia is developing powerful laser weapons that can permanently blind satellites. German satellites are being shadowed by Russian spy satellites, that could damage or destroy them,” Kubilius warned.

He explained that the EU’s new defense readiness roadmap envisions the creation of a European Space Defense Shield, to be launched next summer.

The plan also includes the development of in-orbit servicing, refueling, and repair operations for satellites, as well as the GOVSATCOM program — secure, military-grade satellite communications, which will be operational by the end of the year.

Kubilius said that in modern warfare, the European Union needs three things:

• secure intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance
• secure positioning, navigation, and timing
• secure communication and connectivity

At the same time, the IRIS² satellite is being deployed to provide global, secure connectivity for Europe.

I read a lot of history books and often find myself wondering about how current events will be interpreted by future historians. I appreciate that some people might see this as an overly optimistic practice (“get real, loser, there won’t even be historians in the future, let alone ones able or willing to objectively interpret the past” etc) but I still find it valuable as a way to create a sense of perspective that can otherwise be hard to find.

So, what will historians make of the latest developments in the United States? On Thursday, the government sanctioned Russia’s two most significant oil companies, in what threatens to be a massive blow to the financial underpinning of a key geopolitical adversary. On Friday, however, the government pardoned Changpeng Zhao, a crypto tycoon who two years ago pleaded guilty to, among many other things, facilitating sanctions busting by Iran, also a key geopolitical adversary.

How do you interpret that contradiction, or the fact that the US government is currently not paying its employees, while spending hundreds of millions of dollars, albeit privately raised, on a new ballroom? This could provide material for a hundred newsletters, and no doubt has already done, but I think there is value in asking whether the sole consistent factor here is inconsistency, and whether that itself is significant.

This is what happens when individual people make decisions without oversight, scrutiny or process and, although there may be some value in rapid decision-making, it also makes it far more likely that the decisions reached will be illogical, inconsistent and corrupt. I have been reading a lot recently about the last time inequality was as high as it is now, which was the time before World War One, a time that Americans call the “Gilded Age” and Brits call the Edwardian period. That too was a time of conflicts, inconsistency and excess, when plutocrats built ludicrous houses for themselves, and awarded themselves vast pay deals, when politicians got assassinated and political movements appeared and disappeared with dizzying speed.

I try to be optimistic, because there’s no sense in being otherwise, but the parallel is worrying. After all, the period before World War I all ended with World War I. If I were a plutocrat, I would be working very hard to steer the horse in another direction, away from disaster, rather than spurring it on ever faster.

RESTITUTION FROM RUSSIA?

But look, like a refugee from a different galaxy, here comes news of what should be the end of the long-running legal challenge brought by shareholders in the ex-oil company Yukos against the Kremlin’s expropriation of their assets. The Kremlin lost, and now the shareholders can seek to claim tens of billions of dollars from state assets worldwide. This saga sort of began 22 years ago when the Russian authorities arrested the country’s richest man, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, prosecuted him, and imposed such vast back tax bills that it could auction off his assets in a process that – funnily enough – was won by a state oil company run by a close ally of Vladimir Putin. It was an early sign of the kind of country Putin was building: kleptocratic, authoritarian, centralised, ruthless, and deeply stupid.

But the real beginning of the story was a decade earlier, when President Boris Yeltsin, attempting to build a different kind of Russia, one which followed international norms, signed the Energy Charter Treaty, an agreement designed to protect foreign investors’ stakes in national oil and gas industries.

The primary shareholders of Yukos were Russian but, like any competent global oligarch, they structured their ownership via multiple offshore entities so – when their company was taken away – they sued. And now, they have won in a process that is a memorial to the 1990s, and the odd alternate reality when globalisation was widely considered a good thing.

Obviously, Russia won’t abide by the judgement on its own territory, but the Yukos shareholders will continue their battles for various assets owned by Russia, such as this plot of land in London and these vodka brand names. “Real justice requires successful enforcement, so we will now focus all our efforts on enforcing against Russian state assets worldwide until every penny of the $65+ billion awards has been paid,” said Tim Osborne, who heads the shareholders’ company, which is called GML.

In that effort, however, he may well have competition. There is 210 billion euros of Russian state money frozen in the European Union, mostly in Belgium, and the EU is inching closer to using it to help Ukraine. The universe in which Russia happily deposited its assets in Western countries now feels like an alternative reality – one that historians will spend a lot of time dissecting.

MAKING CRIMINALS PAY

International arbitration is a tricky game to play, however, or so the owners of P&ID may be feeling. In a complex (and, let’s be honest, rather imaginative) attempt to swipe a lot of Nigeria’s money, this small offshore company obtained a gas processing contract in 2010. Neither side did anything to fulfil the contract, then P&ID sued Nigeria and won a giant compensation award, the size of which has been growing larger still with the interest owed.

It is a case rife with allegations of corruption, professional misconduct and more, and mercifully the  initial judgement in favour of P&ID was overturned. Last week, a court ruled that P&ID will have to pay the vast legal costs in sterling, rather than in naira, which will help Nigeria to avoid missing out on the advantageous exchange rate.

To say P&ID’s British lawyers have questions to answer is to understate how serious the allegations against them are, but regulators have so far done nothing. That is a very bad reflection on Britain’s ongoing facilitation of kleptocracy, and the state of its regulators.

Britain, in common with many other countries, has a very fragmented system of anti-money laundering regulation, so it is potentially good news that the government has proposed to combine many of the existing 23 regulators into “a small number” of bodies. Hopefully, this will mean the regulators are better funded, more motivated, and more willing to anger potentially powerful vested interests by actually investigating financial crime. “It is crucial that existing regulators do not take their foot off the pedal while we await legislation which could risk things getting a lot worse before getting better,” said Sue Hawley, of Spotlight on Corruption.

A version of this story was published in this week’s Oligarchy newsletter. Sign up here.

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Moscow sets up a secret Russian underwater network in the Baltic. Russian intelligence agencies have turned the site of the MS Estonia ferry disaster in the Baltic Sea into a base for underwater espionage, Yle reports. 

German media outlets Norddeutscher Rundfunk, Westdeutscher Rundfunk, and Süddeutsche Zeitung investigated and concluded that Russia is using the ferry wreck, which is off-limits to divers, as a training area for underwater operations.

Sunken ferry becomes a training ground for spying

Moreover, the remains of the ship are likely being used to host spy equipment, enabling preparation for secret missions in the Baltic Sea.

Analysts emphasize that this location is strategically advantageous: it is close to shipping lanes, within NATO countries' influence zone, yet designated as a “quiet zone” where diving is prohibited. It is also noted that some NATO countries are aware of the spy equipment on the sunken ship, though this has not been publicly confirmed.

Rumors of a secret underwater base have circulated for years

Swedish broadcaster SVT, in cooperation with NDR and other international media partners, reported as part of the “Russian Secrets” project that Russia has been building a covert network to monitor NATO countries for several years.

Sunken vessels are harder to detect than the seabed

One sign of this activity has been incidents involving cut telecommunications lines in the Baltic. Unlike devices placed directly on the seabed, equipment attached to a sunken ship is much harder to detect.

Western intelligence sources also believe that similar operations are occurring at sites of sunken aircraft.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia employed oil tankers to launch and control drones targeting European nations.

Zelenskyy: Russians use tankers to launch drones across Europe

Russia strengthens its Arctic presence, directing nuclear weapons toward the US, warns Norwegian Defense Minister Ture Sandvik. According to him, Moscow is increasing its nuclear arsenal and targeting submarines around the Arctic Circle, preparing for potential conflict with NATO, The Telegraph reports.

Oslo has detected expanded weapons development on Russia’s Kola Peninsula, home to the valuable Northern Fleet and part of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

Putin aims to dominate the Arctic

Russia is building up on the Kola peninsula, explained Norway's defense minister, where one of the largest arsenals of nuclear warheads in the world is located.

“They (the nuclear weapons) are not only pointed towards Norway, but towards the UK and over the pole towards Canada and the US,” Sandvik said.

Nuclear forces and new weapons tests

“We see that they’re testing new weapons, for example, hypersonic missiles, and they are testing nuclear-driven torpedoes and nuclear warheads,” he added.

The Kola Peninsula contains the world’s most concentrated nuclear arsenal and is critical for Moscow’s ability to deliver a “second strike.”

Putin’s tool of control 

The Northern Fleet serves as the base for Russia’s Arctic naval forces and, according to Sandvik, is now used to test powerful new weapons and expand Putin’s nuclear potential.

“Even though Putin is losing heavily in Ukraine – he has lost one million soldiers – the Northern Fleet is intact. And they are developing it,” he said, highlighting a new frigate and a multipurpose submarine developed over the past two years.

The Arctic as a key theater of conflict

The Northern Fleet has at least 16 nuclear submarines and hypersonic Zircon missiles capable of traveling eight times the speed of sound.

Alongside the US and the UK, Norway monitors the region 24/7, as the Arctic becomes a third critical battlefield, particularly due to new shipping routes opened by melting glaciers.

A strategy to blockade NATO allies

Putin seeks to establish the Bastion defense system, control the Bear Gap, and deny NATO allies access to strategic sea lanes.

His goal is to cut off supplies and support, and all Russian doctrines and military plans focus on this objective. For Norway, controlling these critical gaps is paramount.

Next potential theater of military operations

Sandvik added that if the war in Ukraine ends, the Arctic Circle could become the next main theater of military operations, as there is a possibility that Putin will deploy forces to threaten Finland’s borders.

Ukraine is prepared to continue fighting Russia for another two to three years, but fears the war could last decades, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in his interview for The Times.

He said he has "no doubt that Ukraine will survive as an independent state." However, Kyiv is concerned about how long the country can sustain the war, both in terms of human losses and economic strain.

"Now the main question is how many victims we will see. President Zelensky told me [on Thursday] that he hopes that the war will not last ten years, but that Ukraine is ready to fight for another two, three years," Tusk stated.

Ukraine’s right to strike Russia-linked targets across Europe

Tusk also emphasized that Ukraine has the right to target Russian-linked objectives anywhere in Europe. He noted that the full-scale war is crippling Russia’s economy, which faces “dramatic” challenges amid new US sanctions on Russian oil companies.

Following the “Coalition of the Willing” meeting, European leaders expressed hope that a decision on giving Ukraine access to frozen Russian assets could be reached by Christmas.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called for urgent action: “We have to go after Russia's money." According to the official, now that sanctions are working and it’s time to increase economic pressure to push Russian President Vladimir Putin toward negotiations.

Russia is willing to fight, the West still unprepared

Tusk highlighted that internal instability makes Putin even more aggressive, while the Trump administration’s tough stance on Moscow has yet to provide a clear picture.

He said that "the Russians are in really deep trouble" economically. 

“Does it mean we can say we are winning? Not at all. They have one big advantage against the West, and Europe especially: they are ready to fight … in wartime, this is absolutely the crucial question,” he emphasized.

Putin’s threat to NATO and European capitals is real 

Tusk warned that a Kremlin attack on a NATO country would also put the UK at risk. He expressed shock at the British public’s apparent indifference to national security, referencing a reported arson attack on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s home, likely orchestrated by Russian intelligence.

He added that Russia’s deployment of new “Oreshnik” hypersonic missiles in Belarus or Kaliningrad would allow Moscow to strike any European capital, including London, with a range of up to 3,200 km.

“We are talking about the end of the era of illusions in Europe — too late, I’m afraid. Too late to be well prepared for all the threats, but not too late to survive,” Tusk added.

Russia wants only Ukraine's capitulation. Moscow's maximalist demands regarding Ukraine from 2021–2022 remain unchanged. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this became clear during the visit of Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin's special envoy for investment and economic cooperation, to the US. 

Dmitriev's visit followed US sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

Kremlin's unyielding demands: capitulation 

In the US, Dmitriev stated that Russia seeks solutions to the “root causes” of the war. ISW notes that Moscow uses this narrative to insist on:

• Replacing Ukraine’s government with a Russian-backed puppet administration.
• Obligating Ukraine to remain neutral, leaving the country defenseless against military aggression.
• Ending NATO’s open-door policy

"Complete annihilation of humanity"

Dmitriev, known as Putin’s negotiator, claimed that “the security of the whole world” depends on peaceful US–Russia relations and warned the Trump administration about “complete annihilation of humanity” according to ISW.

He also pushed for US–Russia economic cooperation, subtly referencing Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin began nuclear exercises on 22 October, which included launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, after their potential meeting with Trump in Budapest was cancelled. 

According to Dmitriev, the US must consider Russia’s “national interests” in peace discussions. He cited NATO expansion as an “existential threat” to Russia and framed the need to “protect Russian-speaking populations in eastern Ukraine.”

Dmitriev additionally repeated Russia’s proposal to build a tunnel between the US and Russia across the Bering Strait using Elon Musk’s technology, claiming economic cooperation could become the “foundation of peaceful US–Russia relations.”

Sweets with threats

Additionally, Kirill Dmitriev brought boxes of chocolates to the negotiations in the United States, with wrappers featuring quotes by Russian President Vladimir Putin. He shared this on his Instagram page.

The chocolates included phrases such as “Russia doesn’t abandon its own” and “Russia’s borders have no end anywhere.”

Other quotes included:

• “It is pointless to speak to Russia from a position of strength.”
• “The fewer teeth you have, the more you love porridge.”
• “When a person stops being amazed, it’s time for them to go to the cemetery.”

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that Russia’s position on Ukraine has not changed since the Alaska summit in August 2025, rejecting any ceasefire that does not address the alleged “root causes” of the war.

Ukraine and the United Kingdom begin joint production of Octopus interceptor drones. The initial pilot batch, consisting of up to 1,000 drones, will be built in the UK at state-owned facilities. The Octopus drone will become the first Ukrainian combat drone to be serially produced in a NATO country, with Ukraine retaining full intellectual property and technological control. Combat deployment of the drones will take place in Ukraine after testing.

Britain to build, Ukraine to control and deploy

On 25 October during a live television appearance and later on Facebook, Rustem Umierov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, announced the plan. He confirmed that both software and hardware used in the drones belong to Ukraine. He emphasized that this is a state-level project carried out by the defense ministries of both countries. The technology is classified as sensitive, and Ukraine will maintain control over all critical components, according to Liga.

The official added that the production scale would eventually increase to meet Ukraine’s operational requirements, though the final target figure was not disclosed. The UK will manufacture the first drones in its government facilities, and following successful testing, they will be deployed for combat use in Ukraine.

Agreement signed under defense cooperation framework

According to Ukrinform, the agreement was signed in London within the framework of the Build with Ukraine program. It involved direct collaboration between the defense ministries of both countries. Umierov stated that the Octopus will become the first Ukrainian combat drone to be mass-produced in a NATO country.

In September, the British government had already announced the upcoming agreement, which would cover the joint development and production of advanced military equipment. It also confirmed plans to produce thousands of Octopus drones each month for transfer to Ukraine. The agreement includes technology-sharing provisions expected to create defense-sector jobs in Britain and improve security for both nations.

President Zelenskyy demonstrated the Octopus drone to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on 24 October and confirmed the agreement for the first batch of production, as reported by RBC Ukraine.

Octopus to anchor drone-based NATO air defense

In September, Militarnyi reported that the Octopus drones will form the foundation of a European “drone wall” intended to defend against Russian drone and aircraft incursions. British Defense Secretary John Healey told The Telegraph that these Ukrainian-designed drones have already proven effective against Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones and are significantly cheaper than foreign equivalents — costing less than one-tenth as much.

The Octopus system is expected to be deployed along NATO borders to deter Russian aerial intrusions. There are also plans to use the drones in missile defense operations protecting military infrastructure and strategic facilities in the UK. 

Earlier in September, Ukrainian drone manufacturer Ukrspecsystems revealed an approximately $250 million investment to build a new production facility in Mildenhall, UK. 

Two young Ukrainians walked into a Nova Post office in central Bucharest on 21 October 2025, carrying packages disguised as headphones and car parts. Inside: thermite devices designed to torch the building and sever the connection between millions of displaced Ukrainians and their families back home.

Romanian intelligence neutralized the attack and arrested the suspects—two Ukrainians allegedly recruited by Russian intelligence to sabotage their own community's lifeline. The operation was hailed as a victory against Russian sabotage networks on NATO soil.

But Romanian expert Sorin Ionița, head of ExpertForum (EFOR), warns that this success shouldn't obscure deeper problems. "The intelligence services, instead of fighting the threats, were occupied with other things," Ionița tells Euromaidan Press in an exclusive conversation. "Now they don't want to talk about that anymore."

The question remains: If Romanian intelligence can stop individual attacks, why did they overlook Wagner-connected networks, far-right extremists, and Kremlin-backed politicians building infrastructure for Russia's massive intervention in Romania's 2024 presidential election?

What the world missed about Romania's near-catastrophe

"The perception of Romania abroad was quite schematic," Ionița explains. "Not only in Ukraine, but also in the West, the nuances and games of internal politics aren't correctly perceived. Romania doesn't have a very clear profile and doesn't take strong positions on the European scene, so I wouldn't blame the world for not understanding what's happening inside Romania."

For years, Romania appeared as one of Eastern Europe's most reliably anti-Russian states—ethnically homogeneous, without a significant Russian-speaking minority, and consistently pro-NATO. Ukraine and Western partners saw it as largely immune to Kremlin subversion.

Then came the 2024 presidential election. The scale of Russian interference and the extensive networks Moscow had built inside the country shattered that assumption, forcing Romania's neighbors to reassess what they thought they knew.

While Washington saw Romania as a reliable NATO ally supporting Ukraine, Romanian government ministers were publicly exploiting anti-Ukrainian narratives for popularity points. While Brussels praised Romania's European alignment, Romanian intelligence services tolerated Wagner veterans recruiting for African operations. While the West counted Romania as solidly pro-democracy, major political parties flirted with extremists until those extremists nearly won.

Take Romanian mercenary Horatiu Potra, who worked with Wagner Group in Africa and later funded far-right presidential candidate Călin Georgescu's 2024 campaign.

Potra is now an international fugitive with proven Kremlin connections.

"It's impossible that the services—for example, the Romanian military information services—didn't know that people who were in the army, veterans, but even active military or from the gendarmerie, from the Ministry of the Interior, took unpaid leave and went to Africa with Potra to do Wagner's work there," Ionița says.

They knew. Romanian intelligence tracked these movements. The question is why they did nothing while Wagner veterans returned home and channeled money into a presidential campaign that nearly succeeded.

The overlooked corruption-extremism alliance

While Western analysts focused on Russian disinformation and TikTok algorithms, Romania's real vulnerability lay closer to home: a political establishment so consumed by corruption that it actively enabled the far-right's rise. The country's major parties didn't just ignore the extremist threat—they collaborated with it, viewing far-right parties as useful tools for managing voter anger while they continued looting state resources.

"Romania's public agenda wasn't very clear," Ionița explains. "Yes, in general, pro-Europe. We help our neighbors, Moldova, Ukraine. But the first priority of the big parties, like PSD and PNL, was different. It was about stealing more—controlling state contracts, appointments, resources. Fighting Russian influence was secondary to protecting their own corruption schemes."

Romania's major parties—the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and National Liberal Party (PNL)—maintained a pro-European facade while key figures exploited anti-Ukrainian, anti-NATO narratives for domestic popularity. When grain shipments from Ukraine created minor disruptions, ministers who officially supported Kyiv suddenly started reproducing far-right talking points.

"Every time there was a controversial issue [about Ukraine, vaccines, LGBT rights, migration, energy prices etc. - ed.] you would find a minister, usually from the Social Democrats, who was exploiting it populistically," Ionița says.

"Romania's official position was supportive: we discuss and support Ukraine. But individual ministers would reproduce speeches from the far-right AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians) because they wanted to be popular with their voters. And those speeches were profoundly anti-European, anti-NATO, anti-Ukrainian, and very conspiratorial."

This wasn't accidental spillover—it was deliberate strategy. AUR party served as a useful tool for siphoning votes from angry constituents. Government ministers adopted their talking points. Intelligence services looked the other way while their networks built connections to Wagner Group and Russian operatives. Nobody thought the extremists would actually threaten the establishment's power.

Then came November 2024.

When the useful extremists stopped being useful

Călin Georgescu—a far-right candidate with minimal political infrastructure and openly pro-Russian positions—won the first round of Romania's presidential election. Not through conventional campaigning, but through a sophisticated TikTok operation that bypassed traditional media entirely.

Suddenly, the extremists Romania's establishment had tolerated as manageable protest votes weren't manageable anymore. They were winning.

"The big parties thought they could control the far-right," Ionița says. "They thought AUR and candidates like Georgescu served their interests by channeling voter frustration away from the establishment parties. They were wrong."

The TikTok campaign that propelled Georgescu revealed networks Romanian intelligence had ignored for years. Accounts were coordinated. Messaging was sophisticated. Funding sources traced back to figures like Potra, who had operated openly despite his Wagner connections.

Romania's Constitutional Court ultimately annulled the election—an unprecedented move that sparked debate about democratic legitimacy versus democratic defense. But the annulment only addressed the symptom. The networks that made Georgescu's rise possible remain intact.

The Moldova comparison nobody wants to hear

Moldova faced similar Russian interference in its 2024 elections. The difference? Moldova's institutions actually fought back before the crisis reached catastrophic levels.

"In Moldova, you had very strong efforts to counter Russian influence," Ionița notes. "The intelligence services were focused, the prosecutors were active, civil society was mobilized. They weren't perfect, but they were serious about the threat."

Romania's response? Years of looking the other way, followed by panic when extremists nearly won, followed by attempts to claim credit for stopping threats they had enabled.

"I don't think they put in as many resources as they did in Moldova," Ionița says of Romanian intelligence efforts against Russian interference. The institutional priorities were elsewhere—namely, protecting the corruption networks that the major parties depended on.

/medu

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Washington joins Moscow in embracing sovereignism

And now there's a new factor Americans need to reckon with.

Romania's nightmare scenario evolved further: Just as Romanian institutions finally mobilized against Russian-backed sovereignism, American political figures started amplifying similar narratives.

US Vice President JD Vance began promoting "sovereignism" as an alternative to both Russian imperialism and liberal internationalism—the exact framing that Russian operations had spent years developing in Eastern Europe.

"We expected trolling from Moscow, yes, but we didn't expect that sovereignism would become the new thing in Washington," Ionița says.

The disruption wasn't just tactical—it was strategic. Romanian intelligence services had spent months developing counter-narratives to Russian sovereignist propaganda, framing it as anti-democratic, authoritarian, and contrary to Western values.

Then American officials started using identical language to describe their own positions, but in positive terms.

How do you tell Romanians that sovereignism threatens democracy when Washington promotes it as democratic renewal? How do you counter Russian narratives about Western hypocrisy when American officials validate those narratives by embracing the same frameworks Moscow developed?

You can't do both.

"All this story about the complexity of the political game in Romania is very difficult to explain in the West," Ionița notes.

Romanian institutions kept their corruption and double-dealing quieter than Hungary's Viktor Orbán—whose public controversies regularly draw Western attention and criticism—until the incompetence and complicity publicly broke in November 2024.

"For us in Romania, it's a very difficult position," Ionița says. "We depend on America for security. We need American support against Russia. But when American political figures amplify the same narratives that Russian operations developed, what do we do?"

Why this matters beyond Romania

Romania's near-catastrophe exposes a pattern playing out across NATO's eastern flank: Institutional corruption creates vulnerabilities. Russian operations exploit them. Local establishments tolerate the exploitation until it threatens their power. Then they mobilize—often too late, always incompletely.

"The lesson for other countries is simple," Ionița says. "If you really want to fight Russian interference, you can win. But you have to start fighting before the crisis, not after. And you have to be willing to confront the corruption and institutional capture that makes your country vulnerable in the first place."

Most NATO allies aren't willing to do that work until a crisis forces the issue.

Romania matters less to Washington than Ukraine does, Ionița acknowledges. "We're not a zone of interest."

But that's precisely why Romania matters as a case study. If institutional rot can nearly capture a NATO member that nobody's watching closely, what happens when similar dynamics play out in Poland, the Baltics, or elsewhere in Central Europe?

The corruption-to-Russian-influence pipeline doesn't require geographic proximity to Moscow—just leaders more interested in protecting their own power than their country's security.

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The uncomfortable questions

The Nova Post sabotage operation failed. Two suspects sit in Romanian custody. The thermite devices were neutralized before they could sever connections between displaced Ukrainians and their families at war.

Success—in the narrow tactical sense. But zoom out to the strategic picture:

• How many NATO allies are still in the "toleration" phase? Still letting Wagner connections operate while pretending not to notice? Still allowing government figures to exploit anti-Ukrainian narratives while officially supporting Kyiv?
• What happens when institutions finally decide to fight—but Washington backs the other side? When American political figures actively support sovereignist forces connected to Russian operations?
• How do you defend democracy when both Moscow and parts of Washington push in the same direction?

Romanian intelligence stopped this attack—one of several tactical victories against Russian sabotage—but only after years of overlooking the networks behind them. The institutions now seeking credit for these disruptions had long ignored warning signs about Wagner connections and far-right infiltration.

The deeper problem remains unresolved. The political establishment that enabled extremists faces no accountability. The institutional weaknesses and political compromises that made Romania vulnerable to Russian exploitation continue. And the networks that enable such operations are still active.

For American policymakers watching NATO's eastern flank, Romania offers an uncomfortable lesson: tactical successes in stopping individual attacks matter less than addressing the systemic vulnerabilities that invite them. Whether through corruption, political opportunism, or willful blindness, these weaknesses create openings for foreign intelligence services to exploit.

Washington celebrates when allies disrupt Russian sabotage. But Sorin Ionița's assessment raises a harder question: Why do some NATO members tolerate the conditions that make such operations possible until crisis forces action?

Russia is preparing a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine this winter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned. His statements came during a meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London ahead of a joint conference with leaders of the Coalition of the Willing, UNIAN reports. 

Starmer noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to participate in peace efforts and continues attacks that harm civilians, including children, as per the Independent. 

“I agree with you that Putin does not show any desire to end the war, and once again has taken steps that will lead us to a humanitarian disaster.

This is what he intends to organize this winter, targeting energy, gas, and water supply,” Zelenskyy emphasized.

Winter under attack

Zelenskyy thanked the UK for its support and confirmed that Ukraine is not alone. The Coalition of the Willing will discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, enhanced air defense, and energy assistance.

Europe and NATO strengthen Ukraine’s defense

Earlier, Zelenskyy reported that some European countries possess long-range weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, and Ukraine is already negotiating their delivery. The UK has previously provided Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles.