Russia’s claims of victory in Ukraine are pure fiction, argues retired US General Jack Keane in his 24 October 2025 New York Post opinion piece. Despite nearly four years of all-out war, Russia is bleeding manpower, facing a collapsing economy, and relying on lies to mask its military failure. 

Keane, chair of the Institute for the Study of War, says Kremlin propaganda conceals the reality that Russia is losing militarily and internally.

Russia’s war of attrition hides catastrophic losses

According to Keane, Vladimir Putin insists that victory in Ukraine is inevitable and refuses any peace deal that does not hand him full control of the Donbas. Yet after years of fighting, Russia’s forces remain stuck in place. They have failed to take any major Ukrainian city since 2022 and now fight for small towns and empty fields at what Keane calls “extravagant losses.”

Ukraine’s resistance, aided by effective drone warfare, has forced Russian troops to abandon tanks and mechanized formations. Instead, they attack in small squads of three to five soldiers, suffering massive casualties to move only meters forward. Keane cites data showing that in 2025, Russian forces lost an average of 70 to 75 soldiers for every square kilometer captured — a rate he calls “horrifying.”

Putin leans on foreign allies as Russia’s losses mount and recruitment system unravels

Keane writes that without China, North Korea, and Iran, Russia’s war effort would collapse. He highlights that 10,000 North Korean troops helped Moscow retake Kursk — a move he calls embarrassing.

Even as Russia loses 35,000 troops per month, the Kremlin is cutting enlistment bonuses. Keane suggests forced mobilization may follow, risking backlash at home.

As Russia’s economy sinks, Kremlin bets big on propaganda

Keane reports Russia’s sovereign wealth fund dropped from $113 billion in 2022 to $50.26 billion by October 2025. The country faces 16.5% interest rates and a 13–20% gasoline shortage due to Ukrainian refinery strikes. Trump’s sanctions have also hurt oil revenues.

Despite this, the Kremlin raised propaganda spending by 54% in its 2026 budget, flooding media with false victories to hide battlefield losses and economic pain.