The Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps is mopping up the last Russian positions in a 40-square-kilometer salient north of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, winning a two-month battle that could free up hundreds—possibly thousands—of troops. Meanwhile, Pokrovsk itself is falling to Russian infiltrators after a yearlong siege, and 100 kilometers south, Russia's 90th Tank Division is advancing across open terrain toward the logistics hub of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The victories north of Pokrovsk create a brutal dilemma: Ukrainian commanders can use these freed-up troops to buttress the new defensive line forming north of the fallen city—or rush them 100 kilometers south to Huliaipole, where Russia's 90th Tank Division is advancing across open terrain toward Zaporizhzhia.

Outnumbered five-to-one, they don't have enough troops to do both.

Ukrainian forces gain ground north of Pokrovsk

Counterattacks by the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps since mid-August have steadily reduced a 40-square-kilometer salient that the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade had carved out of the front line north of Pokrovsk a few weeks earlier. The salient bent toward the village of Dobropillia, which sits astride one of the main supply lines into Pokrovsk.

Liberating the village of Kucheriv Yar late last month and defending the nearby village of Shakhove from repeated Russian mechanized assaults, Ukrainian forces have the momentum in the salient battle. Now they're killing, capturing, or forcing out the last few Russians.

The armed forces of Ukraine "are continuing to mop-up the Dobropillia salient, successfully recapturing several positions around the village of Shakhove," the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team reported last week. "These successes may allow Ukrainian reserves to be redeployed from this sector to strengthen the Pokrovsk direction."

In other words, Russian commanders may have viewed the Dobropillia salient as a "counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian reserves," according to military theorist Delwin. The Russians devoted just enough troops and vehicles to the salient battle to keep the 1st Azov Corps fixated on fighting north of Pokrovsk—so the corps wouldn't shift its attention to Pokrovsk proper.

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Dobropillia diversion: did Russia trick Ukraine into losing Pokrovsk?

Pokrovsk likely lost despite northern gains

The problem, however, is that the Russians have the momentum in Pokrovsk—and it may be impossible for the Ukrainians, outnumbered five to one, to seize it from them. "Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad," the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. concluded Tuesday.

The Russians succeeded in infiltrating Pokrovsk following a brutal yearlong siege in part because the salient battle drew the 1st Azov Corps into fighting north of Pokrovsk—keeping it from fighting in Pokrovsk, which was garrisoned by two exhausted Ukrainian units. The 68th Jaeger Brigade and 155th Mechanized Brigade began retreating north in late October.

Now that the 1st Azov Corps is on the verge of winning the salient fight, it's probably too late to do much for Pokrovsk. A few elite Ukrainian units, including one commando team that helicoptered into the city on 29 October, are clinging to fighting positions on the northern edge of Pokrovsk, holding open a narrow escape route for any Ukrainian troops still attempting to flee that city or neighboring Myrnohrad.

Pokrovsk, a once-thriving mining city of 60,000 people, is almost certainly lost—as is smaller Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian forces romping to victory in the disappearing Dobropillia salient may end up staying in the area, buttressing a new defensive line north of Pokrovsk.

Southern front threatens Huliaipole logistics hub

Or they may head south to the junction of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, where a powerful force led by the Russian army's biggest division, the 90th Tank Division, has been steadily advancing across unfortified open terrain, pushing back an outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian force.

"Unfortunately, over the past few weeks, Russian forces have made a series of gains toward Huliaipole and, more broadly, achieved notable advances in the southeastern sector," explained Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group.

Reinforcements could stiffen Ukrainian defenses around Huliaipole. But Ukrainian commanders must choose carefully where they send their precious few reserves.

Their choice to fight so hard over the Dobropillia salient may have hastened Pokrovsk's fall. Likewise, rushing troops south to Huliaipole could weaken the new defensive line forming north of Pokrovsk.

At the same time, stiffening that defensive line at the expense of Huliaipole could accelerate Russian gains in the south. As long as Russia has more troops than Ukraine has, there are no easy choices for infantry-starved Ukrainian commanders.

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Ukraine dominates with drones—until fog arrives in Pokrovsk

Ukrainian forces continue resisting Russian pressure in the heavily contested city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, where close-quarters fighting is ongoing and logistics remain operational, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi. The general noted that reports that Russian forces have taken control of the city of Pokrovsk or have operationally encircled Ukrainian forces are false.

Syrskyi rejects claims of Russian control in Pokrovsk

Syrskyi stated on the morning of 13 November that Russian forces have not captured Pokrovsk and Ukrainian troops in the area are not surrounded. He emphasized that the stabilization of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad operation depends on coordinated actions between military leadership, combat units, and subunits carrying out assigned tasks.

To address the evolving situation, Syrskyi says he has visited the Pokrovsk direction, where he and local commanders evaluated the results of previously defined objectives and planned further operations. He stressed that the Pokrovsk axis remains the main focus of Russian offensive activity, with the highest number of daily enemy assaults recorded there. A significant portion of Russia’s forces in Ukraine is now concentrated on this front.

Urban fighting and logistics under pressure, search-and-destroy missions ongoing near Pokrovsk

According to Syrskyi, Ukrainian troops are engaged in continuous combat with small Russian assault infantry groups both on the outskirts and within Pokrovsk’s urban areas. There are also occasional engagements involving the destruction of light Russian vehicles.

Ukraine’s key objectives in this sector, he said, include gradually regaining control of designated areas, maintaining and defending current logistics routes, and organizing additional supply lines. These efforts are aimed at ensuring the timely delivery of essential materials to frontline defenders and the uninterrupted evacuation of wounded personnel.

Fighting also continues in the nearby Ocheretyne direction. Syrskyi reported that over the past seven days, Ukrainian forces have cleared 7.4 km² of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Pokrovsk district through search-and-strike operations.

"There is no question of Russian control over Pokrovsk or an operational encirclement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces grouping," Syrskyi said.

Meanwhile, the General Staff of Ukraine has released video footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting Russian troops and retaking previously lost positions in Pokrovsk. The footage from the 425th Separate Assault Regiment showed the use of tracked vehicles in logistics operations and the elimination of Russian soldiers during urban combat.

Russia increases pressure on Pokrovsk

Russian troops recently exploited poor weather conditions—specifically heavy fog—to penetrate parts of Pokrovsk. Separately, the Russians recently launched a mass assault on the city using light vehicles along the Selydove–Pokrovsk highway, achieving partial success.

Russian forces are likely to collapse the Ukrainian pocket around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast, but the impact depends on how Ukraine manages its withdrawal, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 12 November. ISW noted Russia had already denied Ukraine use of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub by July 2025. Meanwhile, Kremlin-linked milbloggers are prematurely declaring Pokrovsk’s fall, though ISW confirms Russian control over only 46% of the city.

Russian troops push into Pokrovsk as Ukraine maintains defense and logistics

ISW says Russian forces are advancing around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, supported by motorized assaults and glide bomb strikes. On 12 November, geolocated footage confirmed Russian progress in northern Pokrovsk. Moscow’s Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed the seizure of Sukhyi Yar and advances southwest of Rodynske, in eastern Novopidhorodne, and south of Molodetske — all near Pokrovsk.

Despite this, Ukrainian troops reportedly maintained or even regained positions in northern Pokrovsk and in the Zakhidnyi Microraion of central Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported Russia launched a multi-day assault on Pokrovsk using light vehicles along the M-30 highway. The unit confirmed Russia had established firing positions in several parts of Pokrovsk, but added that Ukrainian forces still controlled supply lines to the city.

Map: ISW.

A spokesperson for a Ukrainian drone battalion operating in Myrnohrad also said Ukrainian units continued receiving supplies there. Russian sources, meanwhile, acknowledged a Ukrainian counterattack near Rodynske, though they claimed the settlement remained in Russian hands.

ISW questions significance of Russian advances

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the strategic impact of Russia’s possible seizure of Pokrovsk hinges on how Ukraine withdraws — whether in an orderly fashion or under pressure. The think tank said Russian control of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub was already effectively achieved in July 2025.

Kremlin-linked sources exaggerate battlefield control

Russian milbloggers, many linked to the Kremlin, are mounting an aggressive information campaign claiming Pokrovsk is nearly or fully seized. One blogger said Russian troops gained "firm control" of the city by using heavy fog to advance, referencing footage of Russian soldiers entering Pokrovsk on motorcycles. Others declared that most of Myrnohrad is now a contested "gray zone."

Multiple milbloggers also circulated AI-generated videos allegedly showing mass Ukrainian surrenders in Myrnohrad. However, these were debunked by Ukraine’s General Staff and even by some Russian bloggers themselves. One milblogger even claimed Ukraine had shared the fake footage to discredit real videos from the front — while still insisting Russia held more ground than available evidence supports.

The overcast and foggy weather that rolled in with the winter months is an opportunity for Russian forces to rush infantry and vehicles across the drone-patrolled no-man's-land and secure new positions in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and other contested settlements.

That's because bad weather means poor visibility for drones—and drones are now the main means of defense for infantry-starved Ukrainian formations.

If the drones can see, the Russians struggle to advance. If the drones can't see, the Russians advance quickly—and in large numbers.

This was dramatically evident this weekend. "During recent days, the Russians have intensified efforts to penetrate Pokrovsk on light equipment through the southern suburbs," the Ukrainian 7th Rapid Response Corps, which defends Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad, explained on social media on Tuesday.

"For this, the enemy used adverse weather conditions, including thick fog," the corps added. "This reduces opportunities for our aerial reconnaissance."

How fog blinds Ukrainian drone defenses in Pokrovsk

Videos from Pokrovsk during the stretch of bad weather depict dozens of Russian troops motoring into the city on bikes and in compact cars and trucks. Yes, videos also depict some Ukrainian drone strikes on the intruding Russians—but too few and too slow to halt the Russian advance.

"There are currently more than 300 Russians in the city," the 7th Rapid Response Corps warned. "Their goal remains unchanged—to reach the northern borders of Pokrovsk with a further attempt to surround the agglomeration."

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First Russian truck enters Pokrovsk as fog blinds Ukrainian drones

The Russians were already creeping into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before the weekend fog, but much more slowly. Now with the advantageous weather, Russian forces have accelerated their advance dramatically—and the fragments of two Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad face potential encirclement.

Russian commanders exploit weather to bypass drone surveillance

One Ukrainian drone operator has been warning for months—years even—that fog and other obscurants can blunt Ukraine's drone edge, assuming Russian commanders have the foresight to take advantage of the concealment.

"Need to say that Russian [paratroopers are] trying to use fog and a lot of smoke at the battlefield," drone operator Kriegsforscher reported a year ago. "And it really helps."

Four months later in March, the Russians continued to attack under the cover of smoke and fog in Kriegsforscher's sector. "I need to say that because of the smoke, it was hard for us to find them," the drone operator stated. "It's effective."

The fog that protected the Russians back in the spring is even thicker now. In late October, analyst Moklasen observed the Russian 336th Naval Infantry Brigade attacking toward the village of Dobropillia, just north of Pokrovsk.

"Heavy fog," Moklasen observed. The concealment allowed Russian bike troops to sweep a road of Ukrainian munitions and clear a path for up-armored Russian vehicles to assault toward Dobropillia while the bikers fetched the wounded and sped them back toward Russian lines.

Dobropillia remains in Ukrainian hands despite the foggy Russian attacks, but the same can't be said of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. After a yearlong siege, the settlements are on the cusp of falling to the larger Russian force.

Ukraine's infantry shortage exposes critical vulnerability

The loss underscores an important truism. Infantry can fight through fog in a way drones can't, but Ukraine has too few infantry to fill the aerial gaps when the drones can't fly or see.

"Drones and artillery help, but infantry still matters," Finnish analyst Joni Askola explained. "You need soldiers to hold ground. Ukraine does not have enough."

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Dobropillia diversion: did Russia trick Ukraine into losing Pokrovsk?

Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold the flanks of a narrowing defensive pocket in the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad area in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast as Russian troops push forward from multiple directions, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have recently advanced in this direction.

Russia pushes toward encirclement as Ukraine holds the shoulders

ISW assessed that the battlefield situation in Pokrovsk remains difficult. Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the shoulders of the pocket around the town while Russian units continue to advance, especially in eastern and southern Pokrovsk. These advances may indicate an effort by Russian forces to create a sub-pocket that could further trap Ukrainian troops and force a wider withdrawal. Ukraine’s counterattacks continue on the western outskirts of Pokrovsk and within the town itself, slowing Russia’s progress in the north and west.

At the same time, Russian forces appear to maintain fire control over Ukrainian ground lines of communication into the pocket, threatening logistics and complicating Ukraine’s ability to hold the front. 

"Russian forces appear to be working simultaneously to complete the encirclement of the entire pocket and to reduce the pocket itself. The prospects and timeline for those efforts remain unclear," ISW wrote.

Both armies advance in contested areas near Pokrovsk

ISW confirmed that both sides recently made advances in the area. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on 10 November that Ukrainian troops had cleared Rodynske, located north of Pokrovsk. However, geolocated footage published the same day showed that both Ukrainian and Russian forces had moved in southern Rodynske, casting doubt on whether control had fully shifted.

Additional geolocated video showed Ukrainian advances in Zatyshok, northeast of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Russian soldiers were filmed raising flags along the T-0515 Pokrovsk–Dobropillya highway in southern Hnativka, east of Pokrovsk. ISW assessed that this was likely an infiltration mission that did not change terrain control or shift the forward edge of the battle area.

Russian attacks intensify, but come at a high cost

Ukrainian military sources reported on 9 and 10 November that Russian troops had resumed high-intensity assaults in the Pokrovsk direction. These assaults came with heavy losses. The Ukrainian General Staff reported in its 0800 10 November update that 97 of 265 total frontline combat engagements in the previous 24 hours occurred in the Pokrovsk direction alone.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on 9 November that Russia had committed 170,000 servicemembers to offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction. He added that Russian forces suffered a record 25,000 killed and wounded in the area in October 2025 alone. By comparison, Russia reportedly lost about 15,000 personnel in this direction in January 2025.

Slovakia’s prosecutor has determined that the government’s 2023 decision to send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine did not constitute a criminal offense, according to Politico. The investigation was launched following a complaint by the current pro-Russian government of Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Prosecutor halts MiG-29 case, finds no legal wrongdoing

On 10 November, the Bratislava prosecutor’s office confirmed that the country’s transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine was not a criminal act, Politico reported. The office said the criminal prosecution was halted on 30 October “because it was sufficiently established that the act in question does not constitute a criminal offense and there is no reason to refer the case further,” a spokesperson told Politico.

The office concluded that the donation of the aircraft and two anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine had not caused harm to Slovakia as defined by the country’s Criminal Code.

“Nor was it proven that members of the government acted with the intent to obtain an unlawful benefit for themselves or others, or that they exercised their authority in a manner contrary to the law or exceeded their powers,” the spokesperson added.

Slovakia delivered its entire fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets and two anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine in spring 2023, becoming the first country to send warplanes to Kyiv after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The current defense ministry, under Fico’s government, filed a criminal complaint in June against former Prime Minister Eduard Heger and former Defense Minister Jaroslav Naď. The complaint accused them of sabotage, abuse of power, and breach of duty in the management of public property in connection with the decision to transfer the jets.

Both officials rejected the allegations at the time.

Following the announcement, Jaroslav Naď published a statement on Facebook.

“It has been confirmed what I have repeatedly said: that the government of Eduard Heger, with me as Minister of Defense, acted not only morally correctly but also in the national interest of the Slovak Republic,” Naď wrote.

Russia reportedly used a Molniya drone armed with yellow phosphorus against Ukrainian forces. A video that emerged on social media shows an attack targeting Ukrainian trench positions with incendiary material. The Molniya drones is a cheap mass-produced medium-range drone.

Russia deploys phosphorus-filled Molniya drones over trenches

According to Ukrainian analytical group Vodohrai, Russian forces are using strike drones of the Molniya type equipped with warheads containing yellow phosphorus against Ukrainian troops. According to Militarnyi, Vodohrai received and studied footage from one of the attacks, concluding that the drones have been modified to deliver chemical agents that cause severe harm.

The use of phosphorus compounds in combat can lead to large-scale fires and devastating burn injuries. Yellow phosphorus retains many of the same properties as white phosphorus — it ignites easily and is highly toxic. This makes it especially dangerous when used in drone-delivered attacks against exposed infantry in trenches or dugouts.

Images and footage shared by Vodohrai also show the process of Russian troops extracting yellow phosphorus from mortar rounds. This supports the group’s assessment that Russian forces are attempting to modify standard munitions to increase their destructive potential against personnel, rather than for obscuring movements.

Since 2014, Russian forces have also used 9M22S incendiary munitions launched from multiple rocket systems against Ukrainian territory. The latest development marks a continuation and possible escalation of Russia’s use of incendiary weapons during its war in Ukraine.

Drones struck the Likhovskoy railway area in Russia’s Rostov oblast overnight on 9-10 November, according to Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+. The strike reportedly hit infrastructure near the Likhaya railway station, which sits less than 20 kilometers from the border of occupied Luhansk Oblast and roughly 180 kilometers from the front line.

New strike hits Likhovskoy rail node

Shortly before midnight on 9 November, Exilenova+ published a video of the strike that appeared to show a nighttime explosion near the rail junction in Likhovskoy, a settlement located along the North Caucasus Railway between Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. The footage, filmed from one of the tracks of Likaya station with a locomotive visible on the tracks, captured the distinct sound of a moped-like drone engine followed by two explosions in quick succession. Both blasts occurred in the same area near the station, producing adjacent fireballs. The exact target and the extent of the damage remain unclear.

Militarnyi reports that the area includes a fuel tank farm belonging to the company RN-Rostovnefteprodukt, known as the Likhovskaya oil depot. Its total fuel storage capacity is estimated at 26,400 m³.

Militarnyi suggested the oil depot may have been the intended target, citing its proximity to the blast and visible damage in the shared footage. Coordinates of the depot were also listed: 48.1451255, 40.1594278.

However, Petro Andriushchenko, the head of the Center for the Study of Occupation NGO, said the strike likely hit a traction substation and a control post at the rail facility.

Andriushchenko noted that the attack was the third drone strike on the same site, following previous attacks on 19 July and 2 August.

The air raid app buzzed in pockets across Bolgrad on November 8. Russian missiles were in Ukrainian airspace. Again. Thousands of festivalgoers checked their phones, noted the threat level, and returned to their wine glasses.

This is Ukraine in 2025: celebrating survival while calculating strike trajectories.

Bolgrad Wine Fest returned after six years — first COVID-19 shut it down, then Russia invaded. The festival's 2019 edition drew over 15,000 people to southern Odesa Oblast for tastings, music, and regional pride. This year's crowd was smaller but carried a different weight. Every glass raised meant something more than appreciation for local viticulture.

It meant refusing to stop living.

Bolgrad Wine Fest 2025 assembled 22 winemakers and a Crimean Platform booth highlighting what Russia's occupation destroyed: Ukraine's once-flourishing wine region, now strangled by sanctions. Visitors wrote postcards to Ukrainian prisoners held in Crimea and Russia while raising glasses for dual purpose — celebrating viticulture and funding military defense.

Twenty-four winemakers displayed their product while Russian drones hunted infrastructure across Ukraine's south. Sommeliers judged amateur and professional wines while attendees kept one eye on their phones, ready to move to shelter. Between tastings, conversations drifted from tannins to power outages, from harvest yields to which military units needed donations most urgently.

The organizers made the math explicit: every vendor pays an entry fee, every purchase supports the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Bolgrad City Council's Entrepreneurship Support Fund structured the festival around a simple principle — local producers pay taxes that fund everything, so keeping them alive keeps the region alive. When the war ends, something must remain standing.

Generators as backup plans

An announcement from the stage captured Ukraine's wartime normal: "Don't be surprised if the music stops — that just means we're switching to the generator because the electricity shut down."

Ukraine faces massive electricity shortages after years of Russian strikes systematically targeting power infrastructure. Rolling blackouts have become routine. But localities across the country have adapted with decentralized generator networks, ensuring that life continues even when the grid fails.

At Bolgrad Wine Fest, backup generators stood ready. When the power cut out — and it would — the festival switched over. Music might pause for a moment, but it would resume. The wine kept flowing. The crowd kept celebrating. Donations kept raising.

This is Ukrainian resilience in practice: not pretending the war doesn't exist, but refusing to let it win.

Crimea's wine legacy under sanctions

Izmail State University of Humanities brought the Crimean Platform to the wine festival, partnering with the Presidential Office's representation in occupied Crimea to operate a booth alongside wine vendors. The placement was deliberate.

Crimea once flourished as Ukraine's premier wine region, with renowned vineyards producing internationally recognized varieties. Under Russian occupation since 2014, that legacy has withered under international sanctions that cut Crimean wine off from global markets.

What Russia took by force, it cannot sustain through economics.

Visitors wrote postcards to Ukrainian political prisoners held illegally in Crimea and Russia, learning about the peninsula's decade under occupation while sampling traditional Crimean "coffee on sand" — a reminder of the cultural heritage that survives despite military control.

The message: Russia controls Crimean territory but cannot erase Ukrainian identity there or anywhere else. The letters matter, organizers explained, because they tell prisoners someone still fights for them, still remembers, still resists. Meanwhile, Crimean vineyards languish under an occupation that destroyed their international viability.

Donations for Ukraine's military accumulated in jars beside information pamphlets about war crimes and the collapsed wine economy Russia left behind.

The sound of normal life

Wine festivals should not require threat assessments. Harvest celebrations should not double as military fundraisers. Visitors should not need to map the nearest bomb shelter before ordering their next tasting. And the music certainly shouldn't depend on backup generators.

But Bolgrad Wine Fest 2025 happened anyway — perhaps because of those contradictions, not despite them. The festival became a statement about what Russia cannot destroy: Ukraine's capacity to produce, celebrate, and insist on living normally even when sirens interrupt the music and power grids collapse.

Southern Odesa Oblast has absorbed its share of Russian strikes. Infrastructure burns, power fails, civilians die. Yet on November 8, thousands gathered to drink local wine, support local business, fund military defense, and demonstrate that Ukrainian life continues.

This is resilience not as endurance but as defiance. Not survival but insistence. Not waiting for normalcy to return but creating it now, under threat, with missile alerts on phones, backup generators humming, and donation jars on tables.

Russia wages war. Ukraine raises glasses. Both continue.

Human error when approaching the wreckage of Russian drones can lead to death. Increasingly more Russian "Gerbera" drones, which were previously used for reconnaissance, have begun to be found with warheads inside, says Ukrainian electronic warfare expert Serhii Beskrestnov, also known as "Flash". 

At the same time, Russian forces use an extremely dangerous scheme in which the detonator is activated during the drone's flight, as a result of which it triggers on impact. 

Therefore, transporting a fragment in a car/trunk/bag is deadly dangerous: a bump on the road or shaking can cause an explosion.

From a reconnaissance drone to a lethal trap

He also showed the warhead with a detonator that he found inside one of the "Gerberas".

"In one photo the warhead OFBCh-2 with a UZ-2 detonator. In the second photo the warhead's connection inside the UAV," he notes.

Why "cutting the wires" won't save: detonator set to combat-ready

Flash explains that a signal from the flight controller goes to a relay, which closes and supplies voltage from three batteries to the detonator connector. This is likely to occur according to an altitude criterion.

"This signal does not detonate the warhead, as many think. This signal sets the detonator to combat-ready. Such a scheme allows the crew that launches the "Gerbera" not to take risks," the expert explains.

That is, activation of the detonator occurs during flight. On impact with the ground, the detonator triggers, and the warhead explodes. 

At the same time, he warns: the detonator may not trigger during a smooth landing of the drone; however, it remains in the combat-ready position. That is why such a drone must under no circumstances be thrown or transported in a trunk.

"The main mistake that can cost lives: it is not an electric detonator. Do not think that you cut the wires or disconnected the connector, and everything will be fine. The warhead's detonator is already in the combat position," emphasizes Flash.

This detonator also has self-destruction contacts, "so what nastiness the Russians may come up with in the future, no one knows," the specialist added.

Therefore, if a person finds such a drone, follow the official warnings of rescuers and do not approach the wreckage, do not transport it, and do not try to disassemble it.

The yearlong siege of Pokrovsk is coming to an end. At the same time, the three-month battle for the Dobropillia salient, a few kilometers north of Pokrovsk, is also coming to an end.

It may not be a coincidence. It's possible the Russians have fought just hard enough around Dobropillia to tie down Ukrainian reserves who otherwise might have rushed south and reinforced Pokrovsk.

In other words, Russian commanders may have viewed the Dobropillia salient as a "counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian reserves," according to military theorist Delwin. The tactic—known as a counter-fixation axis—works by threatening a secondary objective to pin down enemy reserves, preventing them from reinforcing the primary target. The Russians may have committed just enough forces to the salient battle, primarily from a quintet of marine brigades and regiments, to keep the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps busy ... and keep it out of Pokrovsk.

Delwin's theory makes some sense, and could serve as a warning for Ukrainian commanders as the Ukrainian garrisons retreat from Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad and the campaign for Donetsk Oblast enters a new phase. That warning is simple: expect deception and diversion.

The Russian breakthrough toward Dobropillia

When the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade discovered gaps in the undermanned Ukrainian line north of Pokrovsk and swiftly marched 15 km toward the village of Dobropillia back in early August, they initially aimed to gain fire control over the village—and pummel it with drones and artillery.

And for good reason: one of the two main supply lines into Pokrovsk threaded through Dobropillia. Severing that supply line could've accelerated the starvation of the two Ukrainian brigades in the Pokrovsk garrison.

But the Ukrainians reacted swiftly, deploying the 1st Azov Corps and several of its well-equipped brigades. The Ukrainians squeezed the 40-square-kilometer salient from both sides, forcing the Russians away from Dobropillia proper and surrounding them in at least two groups, including one in the village of Kucheriv Yar.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian 225th Assault Regiment and 33rd Mechanized Brigade established a strong defense in the village of Shakhove, which anchored the southeastern corner of the salient. The defenders of Shakhove rebuffed repeated Russian mechanized assaults, preventing heavy Russian reinforcements from entering the salient.

Erasing the salient

In late October, the Ukrainian 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion liberated Kucheriv Yar, taking Russian prisoners and eliminating around half of the salient. North of Pokrovsk, the momentum was on the Ukrainians' side as they eliminated the two-month-old incursion and straightened their line.

Farther south in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, however, the Russians had the momentum.

Russian regiments failed to captured Dobropillia, but they still managed to put pressure on the supply lines into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by pushing drone teams as close as possible to the front line.

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First Russian truck enters Pokrovsk as fog blinds Ukrainian drones

The strategic gamble: trading Dobropillia pressure for Pokrovsk penetration

Russian infiltrators slipped into Pokrovsk from the south, suffering enormous casualties but managing, slowly yet steadily, to accumulate enough forces inside Pokrovsk to destabilize the increasingly outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian garrison.

When the Ukrainian Tymur Special Unit staged a daring helicopter assault into Pokrovsk on 29 October, it wasn't a sign the Ukrainians were winning in the city. Quite the opposite.

The Tymur commandos were part of a wider Ukrainian effort to hold a few key fighting positions in northern Pokrovsk—and keep open an escape route for the last survivors of the city's garrison.

"The battle for the city is coming to an end," observer Thorkill concluded on Wednesday.

We may never know how much longer the city may have held if the Russians hadn't occupied the 1st Azov Corps in a long battle around Dobropillia. But it surely helped the Russian strategy in Pokrovsk that the 1st Azov Corps never fought in the city itself.

The Russians' apparent plan worked. And it may have worked even better if, for example, those mechanized columns had been able to get past Shakhove and bolster the Dobropillia salient. A harder fight over the pocket could've drawn in even more Ukrainian units, further weakening defenses in and adjacent to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

"Overall, Russian commanders in charge of the operation cannot be overly praised," Delwin wrote, "as they should have exploited this further."

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Ukrainian commandos rush into Pokrovsk to hold escape corridor open for fleeing garrison

The era of nuclear arms reduction is officially over. The world is returning to a trend of expanding nuclear arsenals, intensifying nuclear rhetoric, and abandoning arms control agreements, says Hans Kristensen, Associate Senior Researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) Weapons of Mass Destruction Program, per Newsweek.

According to Kristensen, the world is witnessing the growth of nuclear stockpiles, the escalation of rhetoric, and the rejection of arms control.

The US launches Minuteman III after Russian military drills 

In recent weeks, the US has conducted a test launch of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, without a warhead, but with a clear political message. 

The test was a response to recent Russian military drills, which took place after the collapse of the planned US President Donald Trump– Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting in Budapest regarding the war in Ukraine. Russia has not demonstrated readiness to make concessions or even discuss compromise conditions to end hostilities. 

The US military said the purpose of the launch was to evaluate the reliability, readiness, and accuracy of the weapon system.

The Kremlin starts with a “Yars” launch 

Before the American Minuteman III was launched, Russia launched a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, which hit its target at the Kura range in Kamchatka.

The Kremlin stated that the exercise aimed to test the readiness of its military command structures. Putin personally observed the process.

Following the tests, Trump stated that he could work on denuclearization with Russia and China, but acknowledged that both countries could catch up to the US within four to five years.

China, the US, and Russia form a new nuclear triad

All three nuclear powers — China, the United States, and Russia — now possess a complete nuclear triad: intercontinental missiles, ballistic missile submarines, and nuclear-capable aircraft. This ensures that each has the ability to deliver a retaliatory strike, even after sustaining an initial attack.

It remains unclear whether Beijing or Moscow will respond with new tests. One thing is clear: the world has entered a phase of dangerous nuclear modernization.

A thick fog blanketed Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad on Thursday. For the Russians, it was a long-awaited opportunity—to rush more forces past Ukraine's drones and into the embattled settlements.

They succeeded more than they failed. For the first time since the Russian Center Group of Forces arrived on the outskirts of Pokrovsk around a year ago, the Russians managed to get a vehicle into Pokrovsk. A truck.

That truck's crew immediately got to work removing obstacles from a road on the southern edge of Pokrovsk. Potentially clearing the way for more Russian vehicles to motor into Pokrovsk as the long, bloody battle for the city enters its final phase.

Why the weather now favors Moscow's forces

A surveillance drone from Ukraine's Peaky Blinders unit managed to get a clear view of the truck. But it seems conditions were too nasty for attack drones to strike the vehicle. "Unfortunately, the bad weather is now playing into the hands of the occupier," Peaky Blinders reported.

"If earlier we saw the infiltration of Russian troops into Pokrovsk exclusively on foot," the drone unit added. "At most, there were sometimes attempts to break through on a motorcycle. Today, through the fog, we noticed the first Russian military pickup in the city. They took their time throwing down the barricades and drove through the streets of Pokrovsk."

Russian strategy shifts from mechanized assault to infiltration

The truck's arrival was a long time coming. The Russian group of forces reached Pokrovsk's outskirts in late 2024 but struggled to slip infantry into to the city—to say nothing of getting vehicles in. The Russians outnumbered the Ukrainians five to one, but Ukrainian drones, mines, and artillery blasted every Russian assault group.

In early 2025, the Russians switched their strategy. As the weather warmed and the ground firmed up, Russian field armies parked their surviving armored vehicles and began sending infantry toward and around Pokrovsk on foot or on motorcycles.

These infiltration tactics were extremely costly in lives and light equipment.

Tens of thousands of Russians have been killed, wounded, and captured around Pokrovsk. But the Ukrainian garrison in Pokrovsk struggled to keep infantry in every fighting position.

Explore further

Ukrainian commandos rush into Pokrovsk to hold escape corridor open for fleeing garrison

If a Russian infiltration team could get across the drone-patrolled no-man's-land and reach the edge of Pokrovsk, it could shelter in a basement and await reinforcements.

"The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city," explained Michael Kofman, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, D.C. "Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin."

The coming of fall, with its wetter, colder, and cloudier weather, was a turning point. "Worsening weather enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks," Kofman added.

Why exhausted Ukrainian defenses couldn't stop every incursion

But even as more Russian infantry sneaked into Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces in and around the city managed to defeat a fresh wave of Russian mechanized assaults. The long break in vehicular operations had helped the Kremlin stockpile thousands of tanks and other vehicles—and many of them have staged around Pokrovsk.

That changed in the past month or so as Russia's own creeping encirclement of Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad, and the growing number of Russian drones along this sector of the front, squeezed Ukrainian logistics. "Virtually every vehicle heading into the city comes under attack," Ukrainian philanthropist Serhii Sternenko reported.

Even as Ukrainian defenses stiffened north of Pokrovsk, the defenses in Pokrovsk frayed for a want of people, supplies, and heavy weapons ... but mostly people.

Given Ukraine's continuing struggles to recruit enough fresh troops, it was probably only a matter of time before a Russian vehicle ran the gauntlet and arrived in Pokrovsk.

That time has come. It was already overdue for the surviving Ukrainians to retreat from Pokrovsk. Now withdrawal is even more urgent. "Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force," Kofman wrote.

Explore further

Ukraine hits elite Rubicon drone base, but it’s too late to save Pokrovsk

Russian forces are bolstering their positions in the Pokrovsk sector with reinforcements following infiltration-based advances, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian commanders say Russian troops have infiltrated throughout the town and are attempting to push into rear positions.

Russia changes tactics to hold ground in Pokrovsk

The Russian military command is reportedly increasing its troop presence in the Pokrovsk direction. ISW assessed that this effort likely aims to consolidate gains made through earlier infiltration missions and push further into the city. Geolocated footage from 28 October shows Russian forces advancing southeast of Balahan, which lies east of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Russian military bloggers also claim that Russian troops reached the T-0515 Pokrovsk–Dobropillya highway in northeastern Pokrovsk and made progress both east and south of the town. Other reported advances include north of Novopavlivka and the seizure of parts of the Pokrovska Mine complex near Udachne, southwest of Pokrovsk.

Unusual use of armored assaults and elite troops

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported that Russian forces conducted a platoon-sized mechanized assault near Myrnohrad at dawn on 5 November. Ukrainian defenders destroyed three vehicles. Such mechanized attacks have been rare in the Pokrovsk sector in recent months, with the only other known instances near Myrnohrad occurring on 13 and 22 October.

A Ukrainian servicemember said Russia has already carried out three troop rotations in the Pokrovsk direction in just four months due to heavy casualties. The servicemember also confirmed that Russia deployed unspecified Spetsnaz and naval infantry units to support the advance. ISW notes that this consolidation contrasts with earlier actions in the Dobropillya salient, where Russian forces failed to reinforce after initial penetration and were pushed back by Ukrainian counterattacks.

Assaults intensify across the sector

On 6 November, the Ukrainian 7th Corps stated that Russian assaults in its area of responsibility had significantly increased. In September, the average was 13 attacks per day; on 5 November alone, there were 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 276 combat engagements between 0800 on 10 November and 0800 on 11 November — with 100 of them taking place in the Pokrovsk sector.

A Ukrainian drone battalion commander noted that Russian troops are taking advantage of bad weather to group up and enter the town on motorcycles or buggies. He added that Russian forces are beginning to transport provisions and attempting to infiltrate northern Pokrovsk and reach Ukrainian rear positions, where drone teams and mortar crews operate.

According to the same commander, Russian troops have penetrated deep enough into Pokrovsk that Ukrainian and Russian positions are now mixed in a house-to-house configuration.

A Ukrainian drone strike has forced Russia’s Volgograd oil refinery to suspend operations after a fire broke out at the facility, sources told Reuters on Thursday. The Lukoil-operated plant, one of Russia’s largest, reportedly suffered damage to key processing units in the strike earlier reported by the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

The attack is part of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to disrupt Russia’s oil refining capacity - a strategy aimed at undermining the Kremlin’s ability to fuel its military and generate export revenue. Since late 2023, Kyiv has intensified long-range drone operations deep inside Russian territory, targeting refineries, depots, and fuel pipelines that sustain Moscow’s war effort.

According to three sources cited by Reuters, the Volgograd refinery halted work after its CDU-5 primary processing unit and hydrocracker were damaged. The CDU-5, with a daily capacity of 66,700 barrels, represents around a fifth of the refinery’s output.

The refinery processed 13.7 million metric tons of crude in 2024, about 5% of Russia’s total refining capacity.

Russian officials said Ukraine launched at least 75 drones overnight on Thursday, triggering explosions and fires in several regions.

The Volgograd refinery attack follows a series of high-impact strikes that have temporarily shut down or disrupted operations at major facilities across Russia. 

Russian forces have concentrated a massive push toward Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, deploying multiple brigades while sustaining severe losses throughout October 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Russia has deployed elements of three armies, according to the report.

Heavy Russian losses accompany continued advance on Pokrovsk

ISW says in the Pokrovsk direction continues to "absorb significant Russian losses." According to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), its units operating in the Pokrovsk direction killed more than 1,500 Russian servicemembers and destroyed 20 tanks, 62 armored fighting vehicles, and 532 transport vehicles in October 2025 alone.

Despite those staggering figures, Russian troops have made incremental gains. Geolocated footage published on 5 November confirmed Russian advances in western Rodynske, located north of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers claimed on 4 and 5 November that their forces also advanced within northeastern Pokrovsk, southeast of Hryshyne, and southwest of Sukhetske — all areas north of Pokrovsk.

A servicemember from a Ukrainian brigade active in the area told ISW that Russia has intensified its efforts in southern Pokrovsk. According to the report, Russian troops are now resorting to wearing civilian clothes to infiltrate Ukrainian lines — a tactic considered perfidy under international law. 

"ISW has recently observed multiple reports of Russian forces committing acts of perfidy in the Pokrovsk direction as Russian forces have leveraged infiltration tactics to penetrate the town between Ukrainian positions," the think tank wrote.

Russia deploys parts of three armies in pursuit of Pokrovsk

Moscow has committed substantial forces to the Pokrovsk offensive, including elements from the 2nd, 41st, and 51st combined arms armies (CAAs). 

Russian units currently active in the sector include the 35th and 74th Motorized Rifle Brigades, both part of the 41st CAA, and the 1441st Motorized Rifle Regiment, reportedly of the 2nd CAA. These forces are operating in western Pokrovsk. In eastern Pokrovsk, units from the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA), the 506th and 589th motorized rifle regiments (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd CAA), and the 1452nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (reportedly of the 41st CAA) are reportedly active.

Beyond Pokrovsk proper, the fighting stretches across a broader arc. The 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly part of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps) and the 506th Regiment are active in Rodynske. The 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) is reportedly present in Myrnohrad, located to the east of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, the 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment (reportedly of the 2nd CAA) is positioned in Zvirove, and the 1437th Regiment in Udachne — both southwest of Pokrovsk.

ISW noted that the three CAAs engaged in the operation have likely suffered serious degradation after 21 months of fighting to seize Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian servicemember stated that Russia rarely uses mechanized vehicles in the area, except near Myrnohrad. ISW confirmed prior reports of Russian mechanized assaults near that town on 13 and 22 October.

Ukrainian forces launched a coordinated overnight assault, striking deep into both Russian territory and occupied areas. The attacks ignited fires and explosions at critical fuel and drone infrastructure sites in Russia's Volgograd, and in the occupied Crimea and Donetsk, aiming to degrade the enemy’s logistics and offensive capabilities, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

General Staff confirms coordinated strikes across Russian and occupied areas

The General Staff reported on 6 November 2025 that Ukraine’s Defense Forces hit several high-value targets linked to Russia’s war effort. The confirmed targets included a major oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast, three fuel depots in Russian-occupied Crimea, and a base used for storing, assembling, and launching Shahed-type drones in occupied Donetsk.

The operation involved missile troops, artillery units, the 414th Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces, and Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The military described the attack as part of a larger campaign aimed at destroying elements of the aggressor’s military-industrial infrastructure.

Strike on Volgograd refinery sparks fire

Ukrainian forces struck the Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast. The facility processes 15.7 million tons of oil per year—around 5.6% of Russia’s total refining volume. The General Staff confirmed explosions and a fire at the site.

Footage published by Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ showed explosions and fire in the refinery area. The channel also released videos capturing what appeared to be a Pantsir air defense system's missile launch and hit on a residential building.

The governor claimed the area came under a “terrorist drone attack,” alleging that a 48-year-old civilian man was killed by shrapnel when debris hit a 24-story apartment building.

Fuel depots burn in Hvardiiske and Simferopol

Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces struck three oil infrastructure sites in occupied Crimea. The General Staff confirmed a successful hit on a reservoir and several rail tankers at a fuel loading rack in the village of Hvardiiske. Two additional targets in Simferopol were also hit—both described as reservoir parks. Fires broke out at each location, according to the report.

According to Telegram channel Krymsky Veter, the first drones were noticed around 1:00 a.m. Russian air defense opened fire over Hvardiiske at 2:00 a.m., and four separate impacts were reported by 3:00 a.m. The channel said it was unclear whether the target was the airfield or the fuel depot.

In Simferopol, Krymsky Veter’s sources reported a fire near the settlement of Bitumne at around 2:30 a.m. Witnesses suspected it was the Krymneftesbyt oil depot. Photos and videos shared on the channel showed flames rising from the site. Another fire broke out in the thermal power plant's area. A loud explosion at 6:01 a.m. was reportedly heard from Simferopol to the southern coast of Crimea.

Shahed drone base in Donetsk struck with secondary detonation

Ukraine also confirmed hitting a Shahed drone facility in occupied Donetsk, located within the territory of the former Donetsk airport. The base was used to store, assemble, and launch Iranian-designed drones employed in daily Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, according to the report. Russia uses the Iranian-designed Shaheds in its daily attacks against Ukrainian cities.

The strike was carried out by Ukrainian missile and artillery units, drone forces, and special operations personnel. The General Staff reported confirmed explosions and a powerful secondary detonation—likely from stored munitions—at the target site.

Telegram channel Exilenova+ posted videos of the explosion, including footage of a shockwave and fireball. One caption read, “Clarification: ammo depot near Donetsk destroyed.” Another post described it simply as a “missile strike” on Donetsk.

Update

Telegram channel Dosye Shpiona reported that late on 5 November, a strike hit Geran-2 launch positions and storage sites at the Donetsk airport base. The attack reportedly involved both cruise missiles and loitering munitions.

Geran-2 is Russia's designation for the Iranian Shahed-126 drone.

According to the channel, the strike destroyed a munitions depot, a fuel storage facility, and a UAV pre-launch preparation point, while also damaging power and communication infrastructure.

Dosye Shpiona claimed that up to 1,000 Geran-2 drones and more than 1,500 warheads were present at the airfield at the time.

When a company from the Ukrainian 425th Assault Regiment raised a Ukrainian flag on the city council building near the center of Pokrovsk on or just before Wednesday, it may have looked like Ukrainian forces were counterattacking in the embattled city.

Nothing could be further from the truth. The survivors of Pokrovsk's Ukrainian garrison are, in fact, trying hard to escape the ruins of the once-thriving mining city. To give the survivors of the 68th Jaeger Brigade and 155th Mechanized Brigade a fighting chance to escape to the new Ukrainian line north of Pokrovsk, several elite—but very small—units have deployed into the city.

They include that company from the 425th Assault Regiment. Don't mistake the company's jaunt into the city center for a counteroffensive. It's actually the covering effort for a belated general retreat. After a year of hard fighting, the battle for Pokrovsk "is coming to an end," observer Thorkill noted.

Why Russia's numerical advantage matters in Pokrovsk

The Russian Center Group of Forces suffered shocking casualties marching on Pokrovsk from the ruins of Avdiivka, 40 km to the southeast, starting in the spring of 2024. The Russian group bled for every meter it advanced, but thanks to its sheer size—its 100,000 or more troops outnumber the local Ukrainian forces five to one—it did advance.

By the new year, it was on Pokrovsk's outskirts. By this summer, Russian infantry had begun infiltrating Pokrovsk in growing numbers—taking advantage of wide gaps in Ukrainian defenses to dart into the city, hunker down in some basement and await reinforcement.

A Russian incursion north of Pokrovsk in August drew Ukrainian reserves away from the city. Renewed Russian mechanized assaults this fall—following a long pause in mech attacks that allowed the Kremlin to stockpile vehicles—kept up the pressure north of Pokrovsk.

How Russian infiltration tactics broke Ukrainian defenses

"The geometry of the battle has long been unfavorable" for Ukraine, wrote Michael Kofman, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, D.C., citing "deteriorating conditions, lack of reserves and [low] manning levels of deployed units."

That geometry got worse last month. "The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city," Kofman noted. "Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks."

Russian drone teams have followed the infiltrators into Pokrovsk. Now Russian drones range across Pokrovsk and the few roads into the city and neighboring Myrnohrad. There's still a 3-km gap between the westernmost and easternmost Russian elements north of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad—a way out for the Ukrainian troops in both settlements.

But that gap is patrolled by explosive drones. And it's in danger of closing completely any day now, especially if bad weather covers a fresh Russian push.

Explore further

Ukraine hits elite Rubicon drone base, but it’s too late to save Pokrovsk

Hold the door

To hold open the gap as long as possible, and allow the survivors of the 68th Jaeger Brigade and 155th Mechanized Brigade to retreat north, the Ukrainian command has deployed that company from the 425th Assault Regiment as well as a company from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade and three special operations units.

These elite troops, perhaps just a few hundred in number, are too few and too lightly equipped to push back the thousands of Russians winding their way into Pokrovsk. But operating from defensive positions on the northern edge of Pokrovsk, the newly deployed elite troops have succeeded in holding off the Russians for now.

The "shattered subunits" of the 68th Jaeger Brigade and 155th Mechanized Brigade seized the opportunity to escape starting on the night of 27 October, according to Thorkill. Many of the survivors "left the city on foot." Russian drones and aerial bombs rained down, killing some of the escapees. But others made it out.

There are still some Ukrainian troops in the chaotic center and southern quarters of Pokrovsk. "Trapped," In Thorkill's assessment. It's probably no coincidence that the 425th Assault Regiment recently appeared in the city center. There were probably Ukrainian troops in need of rescue in the area.

What happens after Pokrovsk falls

As Ukrainian troops look for ways out of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the fates of both settlements are clear. The Russians will capture their ruins in the coming days or weeks.

The porous front line will then shift a few kilometers north into the fields and villages north of Pokrovsk. The battle for Donetsk Oblast will grind on, with the Russians having yet again traded tens of thousands of casualties for a Ukrainian city whose outnumbered defenders fought for longer than should be possible.

Explore further

Ukraine’s window closes: Russian forces 3km from trapping Myrnohrad troops

Traces of the Russians disappear in the dust of clearance operations in Kharkiv Oblast. Nearly sixty Russian saboteurs are still hiding within the city. Ukrainian forces are actively hunting them down, says Yurii Fedorenko, commander of Ukraine's 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment Akhilles, per Suspilne. 

In September 2025, the Russian Defense Ministry publicly confirmed its plans to expand military operations deeper into Kharkiv Oblast following the potential capture of Kupiansk.

In a social media statement, it declared that its forces "intend to leverage the seizure of Kupiansk to attack further into eastern Kharkiv Oblast in several directions simultaneously."

When the fog sets in ... 

The Russians are using almost no armored vehicles, except during foggy conditions when Ukrainian drones are less effective.

“When fog falls and drones can’t operate properly, the occupiers try to move logistics equipment and manpower closer to the front line, sometimes in light armored vehicles,” Fedorenko says.

Continuous infantry "infiltration"

The main tactic of Russian forces remains constant fire pressure and continuous infantry infiltration. The Russians continue to storm Ukrainian lines, forming a “chain” and attempting to slip between defensive positions. Kupiansk, however, has now been largely cleared of infiltrators.

“In the right-bank part of Kupiansk and its northwestern outskirts, where the Russian had managed to penetrate earlier, their sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been eliminated,” Fedorenko adds.

According to the Ukrainian soldier, it took enormous effort for the Kyiv forces to achieve this, although some small reconnaissance and sabotage groups remain. 

Zelenskyy: "We will clear everything — dates already set"

On 3 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to completely clear Kupiansk of Russian occupiers, according to UkrInform. 

“We will clear everything. The dates have already been set, but it’s too early to share details,” Zelenskyy said.

The situation in the Kupiansk direction remains difficult, but Ukrainian forces are holding back the occupiers and preventing them from reaching the city center.

Ukraine's loss of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast could be perceived as a symbolic defeat in Washington. That's why Kyiv is determined to avert it at all costs. The occupation of the city may become the largest defeat since the beginning of the year, as Russia has committed all its forces to capturing the city, BILD reports. 

Ukrainian fighters report a critical situation near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where fierce battles are ongoing.

Senior Ukrainian officer: “We’ve lost 80% of the city, fighting for the remainder”

According to sources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops have breached the boundaries of Pokrovsk and are advancing toward fully encircling Ukrainian units.

Officially, Ukraine says that the city is “holding." In reality, however, Ukrainian military personnel report a very different situation, as the Russians have thrown 170,000 troops at the Pokrovsk front. 

“We’ve lost 80% of the city and are still fighting for the remaining 20%, but even there, we are losing. The troops in Myrnohrad and further south are in an even worse situation. They are practically surrounded,” a senior officer said.

Another soldier defending Myrnohrad confirmed his statements. 

“Even if we were ordered to withdraw, we probably wouldn’t survive. Most likely, none of us would make it alive to Rodynske. It’s better to stay in position and wait until we are either liberated or captured,” he said.

Bakhmut-like strategy: political and military risks of defending the city

Many compare the situation to Bakhmut, when the Ukrainian president, contrary to the generals’ advice, delayed giving a withdrawal order.

“Yes, the situation is similar. We defend heroically, claim that Russia is in worse condition than it admits, and then we retreat,” a Ukrainian diplomat said.

Meanwhile, the president’s supporters believe that continuing the defense has political motives, in particular because Kyiv fears that the loss of Pokrovsk could be seen as a symbolic defeat in Washington.

The ratio of Russia’s use of ballistic missiles with 480 kg warheads to cruise missiles has increased in 2025 compared to previous years. Additionally, the Russians are refining their deployment methods for Iskander-M systems, which are capable of destroying residential buildings, making it more difficult for Patriot systems to intercept them, according to RBC-Ukraine.

The missile subtly changes course while the battery tries to keep up automatically

This challenge is compounded by the fact that the Iskander-M missile can make minor course adjustments as it approaches its target.

As Yurii Ihnat, Head of Communications for the Air Force Command, has noted that the Patriot system intercepts ballistic missiles automatically, which makes it harder to determine the precise moment to engage a maneuvering missile.

Ballistic missiles make sharp trajectory changes

Russian occupiers have also begun using Iskander-M more frequently and from multiple directions, often combining them with other tools, such as drones and cruise missiles.

“This, in turn, makes them even harder to intercept. A Patriot battery during an attack can only 'look' in one direction. It cannot engage targets 360 degrees around it,” the military official added.

Despite these challenges, Patriot systems continue to operate effectively, achieving confirmed interceptions of both Iskanders and Kinzhal missiles.

Russia's elite Rubicon (also spelled Rubikon) drone group is strangling the Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad. So the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, the HUR, is trying to strangle Rubicon—by striking at its operators in one of their rear bases.

But the Ukrainian effort is too little, too late.

A recent HUR drone raid on an alleged Rubicon base near Avdiivka, 40 km southeast of Pokrovsk, is a desperate effort to delay the likely inevitable outcome of the yearlong Russian siege of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.

Potentially thousands of Ukrainians are still fighting in and just south of the settlements, but they're nearly cut off by a Russian force that outnumbers them five to one. The Russian armed forces "have intensified efforts to encircle the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration," the Conflict Intelligence Team noted.

"Currently, only about 3 km remain between the converging segments of the contested area north of Pokrovsk and southwest of Krasnyi Lyman—a narrow corridor through which Ukrainian troops could potentially exit the operational encirclement," CIT warned.

Rubicon's stranglehold on Pokrovsk supply routes

Disrupting one Russian drone group might buy the Ukrainians more time to escape Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But it's unlikely to save the settlements.

The HUR launched its attack drones at the Rubicon base under the cover of darkness on or before Tuesday. Footage from the long-range, first-person-view drones shows at least one of them slamming into a two-story building the HUR claimed housed Rubicon operators.

Explore further

Ukraine’s window closes: Russian forces 3km from trapping Myrnohrad troops

It's unclear how much damage the raid inflicted. And it probably doesn't matter very much. The real damage along the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis is being inflicted by Rubicon teams flying short-range first-person-view drones whose operators are on the front line ... not behind it near Avdiivka.

How Rubicon perfected supply-line warfare in Kursk

Rubicon is among the best Russian drone groups. It made its major combat debut in February when it deployed its FPV teams north of the Ukrainian-held salient around the town of Sudzha in western Russia's Kursk Oblast. The drones swiftly destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian trucks, cutting off the flow of supplies into Sudzha and compelling the Ukrainian troops to retreat.

The elite unit was created in mid-2024 under orders from Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, combining drone development, operator training, and electronic warfare capabilities. It operates at least seven detachments of 130-150 personnel each, with projections to reach 5,000-6,000 specialists by fall 2025.

The Kremlin's attention then shifted south to Donetsk ... and Pokrovsk.

FPV drones make Ukrainian resupply nearly impossible

Sometime this summer or fall, the Russian Center Group of Forces—which had been steadily grinding toward Pokrovsk for more than a year—finally got close enough to the settlements for supporting FPV operators to fly their tiny drones directly over the two main supply routes threading into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Some controlled by radio, others guided by signals traveling along jam-proof fiber-optic cables, the FPV drones made it extremely dangerous for any Ukrainian vehicle to travel along the roads during daytime. The proliferation of FPVs with thermal cameras meant nighttime was only slightly safer.

"All that we are seeing today in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad happened mostly due to the unmanned FPV forces of the Russians, who are blocking our logistics," Ukrainian service member Skhidnyi wrote. "The same crews that destroyed our logistics on the Kursk direction last winter and spring are still operating."

There may be scores of Russian FPV teams along the porous front line around Pokrovsk. Realistically, the HUR can't hit them all.

Ukrainian forces previously struck Rubicon's command post in August 2025, destroying a large ammunition depot in Donetsk Oblast. While that operation temporarily disrupted the unit's operations, military experts warned the unit remains a systemic threat that requires a comprehensive counter-strategy beyond individual strikes.

Explore further

Ukrainian troops nearly cut off as Pokrovsk defense strategy fails

The situation in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, is absolutely critical. Russian occupiers continue to amass forces. The DeepState monitoring project reports that the invaders have already established control over parts of the city, setting up positions and logistics hubs to support further infiltration. 

A logistical trap for Ukrainian forces and lost possibilies

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to carry out clearing operations and neutralize Russian troops using all available capabilities, with drone pilots playing a key role in securing Pokrovsk. 

The occupiers are attempting to secure the area between Pokrovsk and Hryshyne, while Ukrainian special units continue clearing operations to maintain control of this critical logistical corridor. 

“However, this does not solve the main problem — blocking the Russians on the southern outskirts to prevent further infiltration into the city. Given that they are already establishing positions and taking control of the area, this possibility is effectively lost," the experts say. 

An occupation, even without strong fortifications

The situation also threatens Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk's twin city, with being cut off entirely from the outside world. 

"Its capture would be especially damaging because the occupiers could take it without even properly fortifying their positions," the DeepState experts add.

Russians are leveling Pokrovsk within the city and along the flanks of the defensive line

Meanwhile, Spokesperson for the 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Serhii Okishev says that active operations are ongoing in the northeastern part of Pokrovsk to clear Russian occupation forces, according to Ukrinform.

Okishev notes that Russian forces are using artillery, drones, and guided aerial bombs. The fighting is concentrated both within the city and along the flanks of the defensive line.

Putin sets deadline for Pokrovsk conquest, throws 17,000 more soldiers thrown into burning city

Russian troops are attempting to advance through the urban areas and establish positions on the outskirts. 

Fighting continues in the Pokrovsk area between Ukrainian special forces and Russian occupation troops. The operation aims to protect a strategically important logistical area and neutralize Russian attempts to expand their fire control over critical supply routes.

The gap between separate contingents of Russian troops advancing east and west of Myrnohrad is now just 3 km. With every passing day, it becomes much more difficult for the Ukrainian troops south of the closing Russian pincer to receive supplies through the gap—or retreat through it to the north.

Current situation in Myrnohrad: Russian pincer gap stands at just 3 km between advancing forces. Ukrainian defenders—parts of the 25th Air Assault and 38th Marine brigades—face an encirclement timeline measured in days, not weeks. One remaining corridor under heavy drone surveillance provides the only escape route.

The implication is clear, according to the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team. "It is time for the [armed forces of Ukraine] to abandon Myrnohrad and the area south of it," CIT urged.

Myrnohrad, an industrial town with a pre-war population of around 40,000, lies just east of Pokrovsk, a mining city with a pre-war population of more than 100,000.

Why Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad matter strategically

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad anchor Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast. Capturing Pokrovsk would give the Russian Central Group of Forces a clearer shot at the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, 60 km to the north—major population centers that remain under Ukrainian control.

For more than a year, outnumbered Ukrainian forces have defended Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. At tremendous cost in men and machines, the Russians ground toward the city, trading bodies and equipment for every meter of Ukrainian soil.

Initially rebuffed on the outskirts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the Russians pivoted—and began encircling the twin settlements instead of directly assaulting them.

In March, the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade discovered gaps in Ukrainian defenses northwest of Pokrovsk and quickly marched north toward the village of Dobropillia, which sits astride one of just two main supply routes into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Explore further

Pokrovsk is falling. Ukraine’s northern defense line is rising.

The Russians lost the subsequent battle for the Dobropillia pocket, but only after the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps—one of Ukraine's main formations then in reserve for emergencies—rushed toward the salient.

Russian drones turn supply routes into kill zones

The Ukrainian counterattack prevented the supply lines from being overrun by Russian infantry, but couldn't prevent the best Russian first-person-view drones—flown by Rubicon and other elite groups—from striking Ukrainian vehicles speeding down the roads into Pokrovsk.

"Virtually every vehicle heading into the city comes under attack," Ukrainian philanthropist Serhii Sternenko warned. "It's impossible to quickly evacuate the wounded. It's impossible to deliver supplies and ammunition on time. The main losses aren't at the positions, but on the road."

Fresh mech assaults tighten Russian grip

Resuming mechanized attacks after a long pause, the Russians continued to close their pincer around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad through October, slowly strangling their Ukrainian garrisons. Now it's too late to save either settlement. "Both towns are effectively lost and recapturing them is nearly impossible," CIT noted, "as AFU reserves were deployed to the neighboring front-line section to stabilize and eliminate the Dobropillia breakthrough."

Today, there are hundreds of Russian infiltrators inside Pokrovsk and more than 100,000 Russians in the wide front around the city.

Parts of just two Ukrainian brigades—the 25th Air Assault Brigade and the 38th Marine Brigade—remain in and around Myrnohrad. They should retreat first, followed by any troopers from the 155th Mechanized Brigade who remain in Pokrovsk.

Escape possible but increasingly deadly

The pincer is closing, but it's not impossible for the Ukrainians to escape. "Although we expect the gray zone to close soon, full encirclement and capture or killing of all soldiers trapped in the pocket cannot be anticipated," CIT explained. "In modern warfare, where Russian advances often involve small units, similar small Ukrainian groups may still be able to break out, despite the risks of drone strikes or firefights."

But the retreat will be dangerous. And the Ukrainians will have to escape on foot, leaving behind any heavy equipment that remains in Myrnohrad.

The order to quit Myrnohrad could have—and, according to some observers, should have—come much earlier. Ukrainian forces are preparing new defensive lines north of Pokrovsk. And with their advantage in drones as well as the natural advantages any defender enjoys over an attacker, the Ukrainians are increasingly adept at defending open terrain where approaching Russian troops have nowhere to hide.

Unlike in cities, where the attacking Russians have everywhere to hide.

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Ukrainian troops nearly cut off as Pokrovsk defense strategy fails

Ukraine's pattern of late withdrawals

Sternenko urged Ukrainian commanders to learn from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and allow plenty of time for an orderly retreat once a city or town becomes indefensible.

But waiting too long to withdraw is becoming a tragic tradition in the Ukrainian armed forces. It happened in Bakhmut. It happened in Avdiivka. It happened in Sudzha.

"Every time, our forces withdrew at the last moment with heavy losses, abandoning property and equipment," Sternenko pointed out. "Not everyone could get out. Some remained in their positions forever."

"This is happening again right now."

In these minutes, Ukrainian defenders are conducting clearing operations in Pokrovsk to prevent the city from being captured by Russian forces. The soldiers are pushing the aggressor back and working to prevent a strategic breakthrough in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine's 7th Rapid Response Corps reports.

Ukraine reinforces positions as Russia tightens its advance with every second

According to the reports, Russia has concentrated nearly 170,000 troops on the Pokrovsk front. The occupiers are continuing to infiltrate the city and conducting free reconnaissance from drones. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers refuse to leave the ground. 

“Over the past few days, the Defense Forces have created conditions to replenish our troops in the area of responsibility with additional personnel and equipment,” Ukraine's 7th Rapid Response Corps said. 

The Ukrainian forces prevented the Russians from cutting off the road connecting Pokrovsk and Rodynske. 

“To counter the enemy, we are continuing to deploy more assault units and special forces,” the report states.

According to Ukraine's 7th Rapid Response Corps, the city’s defenses have already been reinforced with additional forces.

“We have clear plans to counter the enemy and maintain close coordination to stabilize the situation," it said. 

Pokrovsk’s twin city also appears in Russian "combat pocket"

According to some sources, up to a thousand Russian troops may be present in the city. The railway line running through Pokrovsk effectively divides it in half. OSINT sources have started marking the southern part of the city as a gray zone or under Russian control.

Nevertheless, there is currently no encirclement or “cauldron.” The occupiers are conducting raids into the central, western, and northern parts of the city, engaging in close combat.

An additional threat comes from simultaneous enemy pressure on Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk’s twin city. Both localities are now effectively in a “pocket,” with logistics hampered by constant FPV drone attacks on supply routes, RBC reports. 

“The fate of Pokrovsk will be decided in the coming weeks. If we lose Pokrovsk, we’ll likely have to abandon Myrnohrad without a fight. And then this problem will spread further north in Donetsk Oblast," a source said. 

Meanwhile, Russian occupation forces reportedly have a new “deadline” for seizing the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of February 2026. That means that the region is expected to remain the epicenter of fighting throughout the coming winter.

Ukraine must make a tough decision on Pokrovsk immediately. Founder of Ukraine's Come Back Alive foundation, Vitali Deineha, says units should be withdrawn from the city to avoid unjustified casualties and a serious weakening of the front.

The DeepState analytical project that monitors the Russian occupation has reported for several days in a row that the invaders were advancing near Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that a complex operation is underway on the Pokrovsk axis to destroy and repel Russian forces.

Save people or hold ground?

Deinega warns that without an order to withdraw, the risks are catastrophic — not only human losses but also the loss of fortifications and logistics, which would quickly fall to the Russians.

“If no one signs an order to withdraw troops from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the near future, we may find ourselves not only losing a significant number of highly motivated paratroopers and marines,” he says.

He explains that Ukraine's troops have already lost "equipment worth hundreds of millions" in Pokrovsk, and there’s no chance to evacuate it.

"We could end up with a hole in the front that no one can plug, and the fortifications we built in the rear will quickly pass into enemy hands," he believes.

"They see everything from above"

Deinega stresses that the Russians watch Ukrainian movements in real-time and use that intelligence to plan further steps. He delivers a stark diagnosis and calls for the secure protection of those who refuse to withdraw without an order.

"The General Staff reports are increasingly full of lies. In fact, we have almost already lost Pokrovsk, which means holding Myrnohrad also makes little sense. I’m not revealing any big secret. The Russians see this perfectly from their drones in real time," Deineha says.

Saving people is more important than politics

The expert insists on a bold, unpopular choice: withdraw units, record the losses, and preserve personnel to continue the war.

He warns that fearing a decline in approval ratings is pointless, as there will be no easy choice, because "the next year there will be war again."

“We must record this and save those who refuse to leave without an order. Don’t be afraid of rating drops, because there will be no elections: next year there will be war again. Somebody will have to fight it," Deineha adds. 

Russian occupiers die by the hundreds in hellish meat grinder near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. According to the Hostri Kartuzi or "Peaky Blinders" unit of the Ukrainian Army, the occupation troops pay an enormous price for every square meter of Ukrainian land. 

Ukrainian troops use drones to take out the Russian military outside Pokrovsk

“Truly colossal losses of the Russian army near Rodynske,” the unit reported in a caption to photos published on its Telegram channel. (Warning! Graphic content) 

Russian occupying forces are suffering enormous manpower losses, trying to fulfill the military command’s orders to achieve success in the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration at any cost. 

Earlier, Mykola Malomuzh, a former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service and Army General, stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered his forces to seize Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the entire Pokrovsk agglomeration by 15 November. 

According to the Ukrainian soldiers, almost all the occupiers shown in the images were eliminated by drones.

“Dozens of charred or torn bodies of Russian soldiers lie in the open on the approaches to the city,” the Hostri Kartuzi wrote. 

The Ukrainian defenders emphasized that Russian forces are assaulting positions by “throwing in meat,"  without tactics or strategy. They added that Russia is ready to sacrifice thousands of its troops for even minimal territorial gains.

“So when you see reports of Russian advances on maps, remember the price the occupier pays for every square meter of Ukrainian land,” they said. 

What does Ukraine's General Staff say? 

On the Pokrovsk front, since the start of the day, the Russians have launched 38 assaults in an attempt to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from their positions.

Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled 36 attacks, are conducting active counter-operations, and have achieved advances of up to 0.4 kilometers in certain areas. 

The situation is on the brink

Russian occupying forces have not encircled Pokrovsk in the Donetsk Oblast, but intense fighting continues inside the city. Small assault groups of Russian troops are attempting to infiltrate urban areas, according to Artem Prybylnov, Head of Communications for the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade. 

In his comments for the Kyiv24 channel, he said that Russian troops are actively utilizing attack and reconnaissance drones, as well as artillery, and maintain a superiority in manpower.

“The city is a commanding height, and its loss would be painful for the entire front. We must stabilize the situation and do everything possible to prevent its capture," Prybylnov said. 

He added that Russian assault units had been preparing for months for urban fighting aimed at taking Pokrovsk, but are now moving chaotically through the city.

Over the past day, Russian forces have made limited advances within Pokrovsk, where the situation remains on the verge of critical.

Analysts from DeepState reported that Russian troops are establishing observation posts and entrenching themselves in several districts of the city.

According to the 7th Corps of the Air Assault Forces, Ukrainian troops have improved their tactical positions in several neighborhoods while continuing to hold off numerically superior Russian forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given his soldiers an ambitious task. Mykola Malomuzh, former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service and Army General, says he has ordered his forces to seize Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the entire Pokrovsk agglomeration by 15 November, Kyiv24 has reported.

Putin wants to dictate the terms amid Trump's change of stance 

“Putin’s strategic goal is to demonstrate that he can conquer specific territories ... especially after Trump’s shift in stance and his meeting with Xi Jinping, showing that he can dictate the terms,” Malomuzh explains.

The general emphasizes that the Kremlin seeks a political effect, aiming to project success domestically while signaling power abroad.

Putin sends 17,000 troops to Pokrovsk

According to Malomuzh, Putin has redeployed around 17,000 soldiers to assault Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces are attempting to cut Ukrainian supply lines and create a “model of encirclement or semi-encirclement.”

Strikes on morale and energy infrastructure

Malomuzh adds that attacks on civilian infrastructure are part of a broader campaign to weaken Ukrainian morale, disrupt the economy, and pressure the international community to scale back its support for Kyiv.

“Another goal is to showcase Russia’s weaponry, including nuclear arms,” he says.

Earlier, Ukraine’s monitoring project DeepState reported that Russian forces from the 170,000 grouping continue infiltrating Pokrovsk. As of the evening of 2 November, the occupying troops advanced even further into the city. 

The Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding back Russia's assault, having already repelled 36 attacks, conducted active operations, and achieved certain successes. In some areas, our units have advanced up to 0.4 kilometers, as per the General Staff. 

Russian forces are intensifying operations around Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, aiming to seize the town as fighting shifts to close-quarters battles under worsening weather, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. According to the report, geolocated footage confirms recent Russian advances in both central and southeastern Pokrovsk, while Ukrainian troops say Russian units have infiltrated neighboring towns and established near-total fire control over Myrnohrad’s supply route.

Russian troops advance into urban core of Pokrovsk

ISW assessed on 1 November that Russian forces recently pushed deeper into central and southeastern Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage posted on 31 October and 1 November shows Russian troops advancing along Berezina Street in central Pokrovsk and on the M30 highway in the southeastern part of the city. Russian milbloggers went further, claiming advances in areas the footage does not support — including northeastern Pokrovsk and northeast of Kotlyne, southwest of the city.

A senior Ukrainian officer told Ukrainian outlet Hromadske on 31 October that Russian troops are currently operating in about 60% of Pokrovsk and have entered Rodynske to the north and Myrnohrad to the east. Meanwhile, geolocated video confirms Ukrainian forces still hold or recently regained ground in central Rodynske — a location where Russian sources earlier claimed control.

Russian redeployment shifts pressure to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad

On 1 November, the chief sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, northeast of Pokrovsk, reported that Russian forces significantly reduced attacks there following a failed mechanized assault on 27 October. The officer suggested the drop in activity indicates Russia redeployed troops to strengthen its offensive on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

A Ukrainian drone operator working in Pokrovsk told Hromadske that Russian units are isolating some Ukrainian positions through infiltration. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade in the area confirmed logistics have become “complicated” but said Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) remain uncut.

A Ukrainian officer said Russian forces have near-total fire control over the narrow road supplying Myrnohrad.

Weather, infiltration, and drone combat reshape the Pokrovsk front

ISW emphasized that fog, rain, and urban terrain are disrupting both Russian and Ukrainian drone operations while shaping infiltration tactics. A Ukrainian officer told Hromadske on 31 October that infantry on the front line rarely engage in direct combat. Instead, Russian forces target drone and mortar crews operating in near rear positions.

The same officer stated that constant Russian infiltrations are forcing Ukrainian drone crews to shorten their flight times and prepare for direct combat, often engaging infiltrators with small arms. Ukrainian units have reportedly been forced to pull back their second echelon drone operators, reducing their capacity to strike Russian forces on Pokrovsk’s outskirts.

One Ukrainian drone pilot said control over high-rise buildings is now decisive. Both sides are fighting for rooftops and elevated terrain that allow operators to hit enemy GLOCs from up to 30 kilometers away.

Ukrainian troops are dangerously close to being surrounded in the 30-square-kilometer pocket stretching from Pokrovsk east to Myrnohrad. The open end of the pocket, the only escape route for some or all of no fewer than three Ukrainian brigades—the 25th Air Assault Brigade, the 38th Marine Brigade and the 155th Mechanized Brigade—is barely 10 km across.

Commanders have yet to order the garrisons in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad to withdraw north to the next line of Ukrainian defenses.

In any event, it's probably too late for a safe and orderly retreat. Russian drones and artillery can range across the only roads and footpaths out of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. If there's any reason to hope for anything short of a catastrophic withdrawal, it's that the front line in Ukraine isn't really a line anymore—it's a porous zone of contested control.

Maybe all those Ukrainian paratroopers, marines, and mechanized troops can slip out of the pocket the same way Russian troops have been slipping into it—on foot in small groups, at night. But it's risky. And the retreating Ukrainians may leave behind a lot of heavy equipment.

Serhii Sternenko—founder of the Sternenko Fund, which equips Ukrainian forces with drones—surely spoke for many Ukrainians when he voiced his frustration.

Citing chaotic and costly Ukrainian retreats from Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Sudzha, he asked how yet another Ukrainian force could find itself "in a fire sack."

"Every time, our forces withdrew at the last moment with heavy losses, abandoning property and equipment," Sternenko wrote. "Not everyone could get out. Some remained in their positions forever. This is happening again right now."

How this happened is clear to see. A powerful Russian force with more than 100,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles has been marching on Pokrovsk for more than a year since capturing the ruins of Avdiivka, 40 km to the southeast.

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Pokrovsk is falling. Ukraine’s northern defense line is rising.

Bloody march

The Ukrainian armed forces bled the Russians for every kilometer they advanced, but the main defensive line was anchored by Pokrovsk itself. That was consistent with Ukraine's urban defense strategy. For nearly four years since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Ukrainian commanders have fortified cities at the expense of the countryside.

That used to make sense. Built-up urban areas can hide and protect infantry fighting on the defensive, helping them repel enemy assaults.

The problem, in 2025, is that Ukraine is desperately short of trained infantry.

"To put it as bluntly as possible: Ukraine has fallen short by at least 10,000 recruits per month over the past two years," Ukraine Control Map explained.

"We don't lack the will to fight," wrote Ryan O'Leary, the former commander of the now-shuttered Chosen Company, a volunteer unit that fought in Ukraine. "We lack the infantry to hold the ground so we can continue fighting."

Ukraine compensates with a large force of tiny explosive drones. But the drones are most effective on open terrain where there's nowhere for their prey to hide.

They're least effective over cities, where their prey has everywhere to hide. If Russian troops can slip through the many wide gaps in Ukrainian defenses, they can accumulate in small but growing numbers inside a city like Pokrovsk.

There, the "overwhelming number of Russian soldiers and the possibility to hide easily from drones inside cities” make a drone-based urban defense “more difficult,” French analyst Clément Molin explained. The drones can't find or hit all the Russians in their basement hideouts. And there are too few Ukrainian infantry to clear out the Russian infiltrators the old-fashioned way: with direct close combat.

Since arriving at the gates of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad late last year, the Russians have been slowly but steadily creeping into both cities in small groups. Today, there are around 250 Russian infantry inside Pokrovsk. That might not seem like a lot, but it's enough to create a lodgement for follow-on forces.

Meanwhile, Russian assaults northeast of Myrnohrad and northwest of Pokrovsk have partially closed a pincer around the twin cities, nearly bottling up the Ukrainians in the settlements. "The enemy cut off our logistics," Sternenko pointed out. Aerial resupply via drone is still possible, but drone resupply can't fully replace ground resupply, which is much more efficient.

There may have been an opportunity for Ukrainian troops to safely leave Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But it was weeks ago. And it required Ukrainian commanders to understand that their most abundant forces—small drones—work best over open terrain.

The old urban defense model may be obsolete.

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Ukraine stops Russian armor—but infiltrators are already inside Pokrovsk

Russia uses "peace initiatives" to create an illusion of control and victory. In recent days, Russian generals reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the alleged encirclement of three Ukrainian cities — Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kupiansk, 24 Kanal reports, citing Russian media.

Ukraine has refuted the occupiers’ claims. In response, the Kremlin leader decided to “prove” he wasn’t lying, and issued a bizarre order.

Russia’s Defense Ministry of Defense received Putin’s order to ensure the passage of foreign journalists to visit areas in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kupiansk, where, supposedly, Ukrainian troops are “encircled.”

“Encirclement exists only in Putin’s imagination”: Ukraine responds

According to the Ukrainian defense forces, Russian command is prepared, if necessary, to halt combat operations for 5–6 hours in these areas.

The occupiers also reportedly expressed readiness to provide corridors for the unrestricted entry and exit of groups of foreign, including Ukrainian, journalists, on the condition of safety guarantees for both reporters and Russian soldiers.

Victor Trehubov, Head of Communications for the Joint Forces Group, has reacted to the situation in Kupiansk and Putin’s absurd order. 

“How can one even respond to that? The encirclement of Kupiansk exists only in Putin’s imagination,” the officer said.

He added that there is currently no question of any “encirclement” of the city.

“Ilovaisk-2”: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry's warning

At the same time, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi recalled Russia’s treacherous actions in Ilovaisk.

“Frankly, I wouldn’t recommend any reporters trust any of Putin’s proposals for ‘corridors’ in combat zones. I saw with my own eyes how such promises are staged on 29 August 2014, in Ilovaisk. Putin’s only goal is to prolong the war,” wrote Tykhyi.

Back then, Russians promised Ukrainian forces a safe withdrawal from the Ilovaisk encirclement through a humanitarian corridor. Ukrainian troops began withdrawing in organized columns along the agreed routes, but soon, Russian forces opened fire.

During the battles for Ilovaisk in August 2014, 366 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 429 were wounded.

Such “ceasefires for the cameras” could once again serve as cover for war crimes.

Barracuda-500 opens up a new 900 km strike potential for Poland. Manufacturing these missiles would theoretically allow Warsaw to reach Moscow, writes military portal Defence Express.

“The presence of Barracuda-500 in the Polish military’s arsenal would theoretically allow them to strike even Moscow, which lies roughly 900 km from the state border,” the analysts say. 

Can Barracuda-500 production spread fast? 

For now, the discussion concerns producing these missiles only for Poland’s own needs, and does not even touch on the possibility of supplying them to Ukraine, although that scenario is entirely realistic.

In addition, the US Air Force also wants to purchase more than 3,000 Barracuda-500 missiles.

“Ukraine had already expressed interest in the Barracuda-500, which is intended to replace or complement the Tomahawk,” the experts explain.

The missiles were first revealed in autumn 2024, and since then, production has also been rolled out in Taiwan.

“Therefore, looking ahead, it is quite possible that Barracuda-500 production could be established in Ukraine in a relatively short time,” the experts believe. 

The cheap missile ready to strike from fighters or transport planes

“The price of one Barracuda-500 is estimated at $216,500, which is very low for a cruise missile," the experts added. 

Barracuda missiles can be launched from airborne platforms such as the F-15E, F-18E/F, and F-16, and also from any transport aircraft, even an An-26, on Rapid Dragon pallets.

Russian leaders keep claiming non-existent major battlefield victories in Ukraine, yet these boasts are being publicly dismissed even by pro-war Russian milbloggers, who describe the situation on the ground as chaotic and accuse the military leadership of inflating results, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on 26 October.

Putin and Gerasimov outline sweeping operations

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov have continued to issue claims of major battlefield victories while reaffirming the Kremlin’s intent to capture all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.

ISW says Putin held a meeting on 26 October with Gerasimov and commanders of Russia’s groupings of forces. The event drew attention because Putin appeared in military uniform—only the third such appearance since the start of the full-scale invasion and just weeks after the previous one on 16 September. During his report to Putin, Gerasimov said Russian forces were continuing operations to seize all territory within the four illegally annexed Ukrainian oblasts.

He further claimed that Russian forces from the Western Grouping had ostensibly encircled Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. According to him, detachments from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division crossed the Oskil River south of the town and, together with units from the 47th Tank Division and 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army, had allegedly cut off Ukrainian troops on the eastern bank. Gerasimov stated that 18 Ukrainian battalions were trapped in Kupiansk.

He also declared Russian progress in the northeast and east of Ukraine, including the seizure of more than 70% of Vovchansk, completion of fighting in Yampil, and the capture of Dronivka and Pleshchiivka. Gerasimov said Russian troops continued urban fighting in Siversk and Kostiantynivka.

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NYP: Russia tells the world it’s winning — actual military performance paints a different picture

Russian milbloggers openly challenge the official version

Several Russian milbloggers said the claims of encirclements in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk were false. One wrote that a wide corridor still separates Russian groups west and north of Pokrovsk, while another pointed out that Russian fire control over Ukrainian supply lines does not mean a full encirclement.

Others highlighted the porous nature of the front and said that Russian forces often declare towns captured while Ukrainian troops still hold positions there. One described the situation in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk as “100% chaos.” Another blogger said Gerasimov was “getting ahead of himself again,” predicting that the general expected reality to eventually align with his optimistic reports. That same source argued that the exaggerated claims were meant to influence US President Donald Trump by giving him the impression that Ukrainian forces faced collapse.

"Gerasimov similarly presented exaggerated territorial claims in late August 2025, including about Kupiansk, that Russian milbloggers heavily criticized," ISW wrote.

The Russians have begun using guided aviation bombs, also known as KABs, with rocket engines to strike Ukraine, but air defense systems are capable of shooting them down. Such bombs have already been recorded in the skies over Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Poltava oblasts, Suspilne reports. 

Comment from the Air Force and strike confirmation

Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, says that the Russians are using the new KAB modifications selectively, primarily to test the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defenses. 

“This is the bomb released from an Su‑34: by flight parameters, it resembles a cruise missile, so it can be intercepted by air defense systems,” Ihnat explains.

He confirmed that Air Command South shot down two such KABs. Another fell in open terrain without consequences. Specialists are already determining the type of munition.

New strikes — impact on cities and infrastructure

On 26 October, Russia launched a guided aerial bomb of a new modification toward Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Its debris damaged an industrial enterprise. Rescuers were deployed to the impact site to extinguish a fire. One person was injured in the city. The day before, the Russians struck Kamianske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for the first time with rocket‑powered aerial bombs of the UMPB‑5/Grom‑E type.

Regional risks and expert assessments

Vadym Kushnikov, an analyst for the portal “Militarnyi,” said on air that, given the Kyiv Oblast's proximity to the Russian border, some objects there could fall into the risk zone and be within reach of these new aerial munitions, per 24 Channel.

“As for the city of Kyiv, the distances are a little greater there, and accordingly, the chances of effective and successful use are significantly lower,” he stressed.

NATO and Ukraine test innovations to intercept KABs

On 24 October, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that the NATO‑Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Center and NATO Allied Command Transformation conducted the next phase of tests of an innovative solution to counter guided aviation bombs.

During tests at a French range, developer teams evaluated a comprehensive technical solution under adverse weather conditions — radar, AI‑based software, and a drone interceptor.

The statement notes that a radar equipped with an advanced sensor suite detected, tracked, and engaged a simulated “hostile” target. Then, using AI software, the drone interceptor followed a pre‑computed trajectory to engage the target.

“The development has progressed from concept to prototypes of various levels of technological implementation and is intended to protect Ukrainian soldiers and civilians from one of the most destructive threats of modern warfare,” the statement said.

The project to counter Russian guided aviation bombs began in March 2025 with the 15th NATO innovation contest hosted at the NATO center.

Ukrainian specialists are directly participating in the tests and providing expert assessments, allowing the solution to be adapted to the realities of the modern battlefield.

Ukrainian paratroopers from the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Air Assault Forces have liberated the village of Sukhetske in Pokrovsk district, Donetsk Oblast. On 25 October, the press service of the Air Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published a video showing soldiers raising the Ukrainian flag in the liberated settlement.

Assault and results

During the assault operations, Ukrainian troops engaged in heavy fighting with a Russian unit numbering more than 60 personnel, the Brigade says. According to the Air Assault Forces, 44 Russian occupiers were killed, eight were wounded, and nine surrendered. The command described the operation as “lightning-fast and uncompromising.”

The command stated that the Air Assault Forces demonstrate "resilience, strength, and precise calculation in the hottest points of the front," emphasizing that every meter of liberated land is a step toward victory earned by the courage and blood of Ukraine’s defenders.

Location and situation near Pokrovsk

Militarnyi noted that Sukhetske is located north of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration, near the city of Rodynske. The liberation of the settlement slightly eases the Russian pressure around the agglomeration. However, Russian forces continue to attack this part of the front, carrying out infantry assaults on Pokrovsk.

Lithuanian authorities reported on Thursday that two Russian military aircraft violated the country’s airspace, remaining over Lithuanian territory for 18 seconds. 

The brief airspace violation comes amid heightened concern in the Baltic states over Russian military activity near NATO borders, including drone incidents and previous airspace intrusions, raising fears Moscow may be testing the alliance’s defensive response.

The incursion included an Su-30 fighter jet and an Il-78 refueling plane, which flew roughly 700 meters (nearly half a mile) into Lithuania from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, possibly as part of a refueling training mission.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda condemned the incident as a “true violation of international law and territorial sovereignty of Lithuania”.

Russia casts the shadow of a nuclear war on the world. Russian President Vladimir Putin began nuclear exercises on 22 October, which included launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, Newsweek reports.

Russia’s nuclear triad operates at full power

According to a statement published by the Russian state news agency RIA on Telegram, all Russian nuclear triads—land-based, sea-based, and air-based—participated in the exercises.

During the drills, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) “Yars” was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, while strategic Tu-95MS bombers conducted strikes with air-launched cruise missiles.

A strategic submarine cruiser also launched a ballistic missile from the Barents Sea.

“The exercises tested the level of preparedness of the military command and the practical skills of operational personnel in organizing the management of subordinate forces,” the Kremlin statement said.

Nuclear tension rises as peace talks on Ukraine hang in the balance 

According to AP News, the meeting in Budapest was postponed following a statement by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Rubio said the meeting “is unlikely to yield positive results in peace negotiations,” as Russia has not demonstrated readiness to make concessions or even discuss compromise conditions.

Earlier, Trump announced plans to meet with Putin in Budapest to talk over conditions for ending the war after pressure regarding potential Tomahawk supplies to Ukraine. However, these announced intentions were insufficient for Moscow to overlook the “root causes of the war,” which is simply the existence of Ukraine as an independent state, which Lavrov reminded them of after the call.

Moscow pushes the security to the edge

That these exercises were clearly aimed at influencing Trump is evidenced by statements from the Russian Foreign Ministry, claiming that “the hostile policies of NATO countries could lead to a head-on collision of nuclear states.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that Moscow must ensure the resilience of Washington’s rejection of the extremely hostile anti-Russian course of the previous US administration, TASS reported. 

“We… must make sure… of Washington’s readiness to work on eliminating the root causes of the current Russia–West crisis,” he said.

Ryabkov also said that “calls for nuclear disarmament without considering the current military-political situation are completely unrealistic.”

“In the event that the US rejects the Russian initiative on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the nuclear threat will increase, but Russia will undoubtedly ensure its own security,” Ryabkov added.

Putin made statements regarding the new nuclear treaty in September and October 2025. Specifically, on 22 September 2025, at a meeting of the Russian Security Council, he declared Russia’s readiness to continue adhering to the treaty's main quantitative limits for one more year after its official expiration on 5 February 2026.

He added that this will be possible if the US “acts in a similar manner and does not take steps that undermine or violate the existing balance of deterrence potential.”

Kyiv has unveiled a new generation of legendary Sea Baby naval drones. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has showcased a next-generation version of its unmanned naval platforms.

Sea Baby hits again: third strike on the Crimean Bridge

“Our drones have changed the balance of power in the Black Sea and proved their effectiveness. The new generation of Sea Baby is even more capable,” says Lieutenant General Vasyl Maliuk, the SBU's chief. 

He stresses that "the work to clear the Black Sea of the Russian fleet will continue."

"The enemy will feel the full force of our technological developments," he claims. 

Brigadier General Ivan Lukashevych, also known as “Hunter” from the SBU, adds that during this year's attack on the Crimean Bridge, the “sea babies” delivered explosives directly to the target, allowing the bridge supports of the illegal structure to be destroyed.

Range and payload: enhanced capabilities of Sea Baby

The new modifications of Sea Baby were developed using funds raised through the Ukrainian crowdfunding platform UNITED24.

Armed to strike: naval firepower on board

The SBU development team presented two drone variants, each equipped with different weapons:

• One fitted with a gyro-stabilized machine gun turret featuring target auto-tracking and recognition.
• Another capable of carrying a 10-tube Grad multiple rocket launcher system.

"SBU is constantly searching for effective tools to maintain Ukraine’s advantage in the Black Sea. The president’s objective is the neutralization of Russia’s powerful Black Sea Fleet, and we are actively working on it,” Lukashevych emphasizes. 

The Security Service continues to develop other advanced weaponry and is already deploying it in the Black Sea, though details remain classified.

The active use of unmanned maritime platforms forced Russia to relocate most of its warships to the port of Novorossiysk and enabled the unblocking of the grain corridor.

Satellite images reveal that Russia has expanded and modernized at least five nuclear-related facilities near European borders in recent years, Swedish broadcaster SVT reported on June 16, citing new imagery obtained from Planet Labs.

One of the most notable developments is in Kaliningrad, where the suspected nuclear weapons storage site has undergone significant reconstruction.

Images taken in May 2025 show the addition of triple-layered fencing, new buildings, and advanced communications equipment. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski previously said that up to 100 tactical nuclear warheads might be stored at the site.

Kaliningrad, a militarized Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, is a key concern for NATO because of its advanced missile systems and expanding nuclear infrastructure.

The Osipovichi base in Belarus, a former Soviet nuclear storage facility, is also being renovated. Satellite imagery shows new air defense installations and a modernized loading platform for rail-based logistics.

In Novaya Zemlya, a remote Arctic archipelago long linked to Soviet-era nuclear testing, several new buildings have appeared, reinforcing its role as a potential site for future test activities.

On the Kola Peninsula, near the borders with Finland and Norway, Russia has built about 50 storage bunkers for submarine-launched ballistic missiles and constructed a specialized pier for loading those missiles onto submarines, according to the imagery.

Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson responded to the findings, saying Stockholm is "closely monitoring" Russian nuclear capabilities. Sweden officially joined NATO in March 2024 after years of non-alignment, citing escalating Russian threats as a primary reason.

The Kremlin has repeatedly used nuclear threats to pressure Ukraine and Western countries since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

‘Russians lie about everything’ — Ukraine hits out at Kremlin claims after yet another drone strike on Kyiv

“This is a deliberate tactic of terror,” Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy