North of Pokrovsk, Ukraine is winning. South of Pokrovsk, Russia is winning.

Pokrovsk itself is likely lost—but that may matter less than the terrain around it. Open ground with clear sightlines and dense obstacles has proven easier to defend than sprawling cities, where Russian infiltrators exploit blind spots and gaps between Ukrainian positions.

The fall of the former mining city would open the road to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—the last major Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast. But Ukraine's counterattacks north of the city could establish a new defensive line against the Russian Center Grouping of Forces—perhaps 150,000 strong— in open terrain where Russian mechanized assaults have already failed repeatedly.

Capturing Pokrovsk has been the Russian command's top priority for a year now. Defending it has been the Ukrainian command's top priority. But the Ukrainians always had too few troops for the task.

Now there are hundreds of Russian infiltrators in the city center—and the supply lines to the embattled Ukrainian garrison are fraying.

"The fall of Pokrovsk appears inevitable," the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team warned.

How urban warfare dynamics have changed

But Ukrainian victories north of the city should temper any dooming. Pokrovsk is likely to fall, and soon. But Ukrainian brigades may be able to establish a new and stronger defensive line north of the city.

That's because cities are no longer the key defensive positions they used to be.

"It has become easier to defend fields or villages than large cities," French analyst Clément Molin pointed out. "Fewer soldiers are needed, the Russian infantry is quickly spotted, and the increasingly numerous obstacles (ditches, barbed wire) sometimes prevent progress."

Ukraine's northern counteroffensive gains ground

That's not mere theory. A clutch of Ukrainian brigades overseen by the 1st Azov Corps isn't just holding the line in the fields just north of Pokrovsk—they're actively counterattacking in several directions, steadily chipping away at a salient Russian infiltrators carved in the Ukrainian line back in August.

In and around the village of Shakhove on the eastern edge of the collapsing salient, the Ukrainian 33rd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades and 95th Air Assault Brigade have repulsed several Russian mechanized assaults in recent weeks.

Despite occasionally bad weather that can interfere with aerial surveillance, drones have detected the approaching Russian vehicles—and mines, drones, and artillery have blasted them from above and below.

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Ukraine stops Russian armor—but infiltrators are already inside Pokrovsk

Russian mechanized assaults fail in open terrain

A Russian mech assault on Saturday may have been the biggest of the current campaign. "It’s hard to count how many [vehicles] were used because of the bad weather conditions (fog)," Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher wrote. "But we are sure that [there were] dozens."

When the Ukrainians got done with them, 16 vehicles lay immobilized and burning, Kriegsforscher reported.

Shakhove holds. Meanwhile, a few kilometers to the west, on the other side of the collapsing salient, Ukrainian forces are on the move. In the past week, they've liberated several villages, including Kucheriv Yar.

Inside Pokrovsk: Russian infiltration continues

That won't save Porkrovsk, however. Ukrainian positions are too few and too widely spread to block all Russian attempts to infiltrate the city from the south.

The Russians have "used inter-positional space and infiltrated small infantry groups," gradually concentrating around 200 soldiers in Pokrovsk, according to the Ukrainian general staff.

"In effect, this statement acknowledges a critical shortage of Ukrainian manpower, which prevents the establishment of a continuous defensive line," CIT observed. "The gaps between Ukrainian strongpoints—the so-called inter-positional space—are precisely the areas through which Russian troops are advancing."

The end is coming for Pokrovsk. How soon is unclear.

"I believe the Pokrovsk battle is not over," Molin wrote. "It could last additional months. Everything will depend on what the leadership will do. Leave the city or fight for it."

Fighting for it could endanger the last few troops in the garrison, who may have to beat a hasty retreat as urban positions finally—and suddenly—become untenable. An orderly retreat could reposition Ukraine's precious manpower behind a new defensive along the open ground north of Pokrovsk.

Open ground that has proved to be a killing field for attacking Russians.

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Winter in Ukraine: when drones can’t see, tanks advance

Under the cover of rain and clouds, no fewer than 29 Russian vehicles attacked Ukrainian positions northeast of the fortress city of Pokrovsk on Monday morning.

A clutch of Ukrainian brigades, including the 33rd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades, assisted by the 1st Azov Corps and the Unmanned Systems Forces, knocked out more than half of the vehicles with mines, drones, and artillery, and scattered the infantry who managed to dismount.

Losing half of a battalion-size assault group would be catastrophic for any other military. For the Russian military, it may actually represent a victory of sorts. It's possible enough infantry survived the assault to find covered positions and create a lodgement for eventual reinforcements.

If those reinforcements arrive in time, the Russians may be able to consolidate their new positions and create opportunities for future advances. "The levels of success from this attack will become clearer in the coming days," AMK Mapping noted.

The Monday assault, apparently involved some of the five Russian marine brigades and regiments that rushed toward Pokrovsk this summer, was "one of the most massive in recent times," the 1st Azov Corps reported.

The assault targeted Ukrainian positions northeast of Pokrovsk, where the Russians are struggling to hold onto a salient they carved out of Ukrainian lines in August. That salient, bending northwest toward the village of Dobropillia, is—or was, until recent Ukrainian counterattacks—Russia's best chance to encircle Pokrovsk from the north.

If—or when—Pokrovsk falls, the Russian Center Grouping of Forces will have a clearer path toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last major free cities in Donetsk Oblast.

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Ukraine’s killer drones just hit a wall—Russia’s souped-up “turtle” tanks

Too many turtles

Notably, according to the 1st Azov Corps, there was an unusually large number of up-armored "turtle tanks" among the 29 Russian vehicles that rolled out on Monday.

Tanks often lead Russian mechanized assaults, absorbing first-person-view drones with their add-on armor, clearing mines with their front-mounted rollers, and firing their cannons to suppress Ukrainian troops.

"The enemy tried to complicate the actions of the defense forces of Ukraine by advancing the equipment in small groups—four to five units—along different routes and at different times," the 1st Azov Corps stated. "The invaders also counted on adverse weather conditions, which would complicate the work of drones. Despite this, their plan was thwarted."

Fifteen of the 29 vehicles were immobilized, according to the 1st Azov Corps.

But perhaps thanks to the large proportion of tanks in the assault, 14 vehicles weren't immobilized—and may have dropped off their infantry passengers in new positions.

It's possible the tanks ate so many drones that there weren't enough drones left over to hit the other armored vehicles trailing behind the tanks, as well as the infantry they landed.

"The clearing of the enemy infantry landing sites continues," the 1st Azov Corps reported.

But if Ukrainian drones and counter-assaults can't clear out these infantry, it could become a problem for the Ukrainian defense north of Pokrovsk.

Experts warned something like this could happen.

“For those mocking armored vehicles and specially turtle tanks and thinking drones are a wunderwaffe that have rendered armor obsolete, take a look at the sheer amount of FPVs that are required to destroy a well-up-armored tank,” analyst Jompy wrote.

There are recent examples of Russian turtle tanks shrugging off dozens of drones before succumbing.

“It’s not about how many dollars a tank costs versus a drone,” Jompy added. “It’s about how many targets drone-intensive defenses can take out before being overwhelmed.”

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Winter in Ukraine: when drones can’t see, tanks advance

Ukrainian forces stopped Russia’s largest autumn mechanized assault so far on 27 October, wrecking tanks and armored vehicles and striking fleeing infantry with drones near Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast. The 1st National Guard Corps "Azov," and the Army's 33rd and 93rd separate mechanized brigades shared videos of the attack and reported the details of the failed Russian push, which involved 29 armored vehicles and lasted over six hours. Russian vehicles operated in small groups from different directions, possibly trying to adapt their infantry small-groups infiltration tactic for mechanized assaults.

The latest attempt today near Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, proved no different: Ukrainian forces repelled the attack and inflicted fresh losses on the enemy.

Russia throws 29 armored vehicles at Dobropillia — and fails to break through

On 27 October, Russian forces attempted a large-scale mechanized assault near Dobropillia, targeting the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka, according to Azov. They reported the enemy deployed 29 armored vehicles — one of the most massive attacks of recent months — with a notable increase in the number of tanks. 

Russian troops tried to complicate Ukraine’s defensive response by advancing in small scattered groups of 4–5 vehicles, each using different routes and timings. Ukrainian forces said Russian planners relied on fog and wet conditions to hamper drone visibility and limit aerial detection.

The defenders countered with pre-prepared engineering positions, minefields, and coordinated action across military branches. Artillery units of the Armed Forces and the National Guard, along with drone system crews, played key roles in stopping the attack. The assault, which lasted over six hours, was fully repelled, Azov confirmed.

Ukrainian 33rd Brigade: split Russian attack waves, damaged BTRs, infantry hunted in forest belts

The 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade also took part in the battle. In its report, the Brigade said the Russian assault on Volodymyrivka started during a damp and gray morning and came in two separate waves. Ukrainian observers spotted at least six Russian vehicles covered in anti-drone mashes on the approach to the village.

Under artillery and drone fire, Russian vehicles dropped troops into forest belts on the outskirts of Volodymyrivka. These carriers failed to reach their intended targets. Bomber and FPV drones of the Unmanned Systems Forces and of two mechanized battalion units of the 33rd Brigade hunted the scattered Russian infantry.

Russia’s previous failed attempt to advance near Dobropillia occurred on 13 October. During that battle, Ukrainian forces destroyed nine infantry fighting vehicles, four MT-LBs, three tanks, and three motorcycles.

A mechanized Russian assault collapsed near Volodymyrivka in Donetsk Oblast on 25 October 2025 when six armored vehicles sank in the Kazennyi Torets River, Militarnyi reports. Ukrainian units, including the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, repelled the attack with combined artillery, HIMARS, and drone strikes. The sight of Russian equipment stuck in the river recalls the notorious 2022 Donets crossing near Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, where Russian troops lost dozens of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Morning assault drowned in mud and fire. Ukrainians hit retreating Russians

The 33rd Brigade shared the video of the attack and said said five armored vehicles advanced from the Novotoretske side early Saturday but stalled in swampy ground. Three vehicles got stuck so badly that troops had to climb out into the water. Ukrainian artillery immediately targeted concentrations of personnel, while a HIMARS salvo and FPV drones destroyed remaining vehicles.

“The weather conditions, on which the occupiers obviously relied, did not play in their favor,” the brigade wrote.

As the assault unraveled, adjacent Ukrainian formations engaged retreating Russian troops. Drone bombers and FPV operators finished off abandoned equipment. According to the Brigade, three armored units drowned in the river and two more were destroyed together with neighboring forces. Confirmed Russian equipment losses include one MT-LB and a motorcycle. The defenders reported at least four enemy soldiers killed and two wounded.

Larger attack repelled near Pokrovsk

Ukrainian soldier and OSINT researcher Kriegsforscher wrote on X that the failed crossing was part of a larger Russian mechanized push near Pokrovsk. According to him, the 33rd, 93rd, 95th, and other brigades destroyed at least sixteen infantry fighting vehicles during heavy fog that limited visibility.

OSINT analyst Moklasen, reviewing the brigade’s footage, identified at least six pieces of armored equipment stuck in the Kazennyi Torets riverbed.

Echo of Bilohorivka

In May 2022, Russian troops suffered catastrophic losses while trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast. Over eight days, they lost more than eighty armored vehicles, many of which drowned during the crossing or the chaotic retreat.