The gap between separate contingents of Russian troops advancing east and west of Myrnohrad is now just 3 km. With every passing day, it becomes much more difficult for the Ukrainian troops south of the closing Russian pincer to receive supplies through the gap—or retreat through it to the north.

Current situation in Myrnohrad: Russian pincer gap stands at just 3 km between advancing forces. Ukrainian defenders—parts of the 25th Air Assault and 38th Marine brigades—face an encirclement timeline measured in days, not weeks. One remaining corridor under heavy drone surveillance provides the only escape route.

The implication is clear, according to the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team. "It is time for the [armed forces of Ukraine] to abandon Myrnohrad and the area south of it," CIT urged.

Myrnohrad, an industrial town with a pre-war population of around 40,000, lies just east of Pokrovsk, a mining city with a pre-war population of more than 100,000.

Why Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad matter strategically

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad anchor Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast. Capturing Pokrovsk would give the Russian Central Group of Forces a clearer shot at the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, 60 km to the north—major population centers that remain under Ukrainian control.

For more than a year, outnumbered Ukrainian forces have defended Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. At tremendous cost in men and machines, the Russians ground toward the city, trading bodies and equipment for every meter of Ukrainian soil.

Initially rebuffed on the outskirts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the Russians pivoted—and began encircling the twin settlements instead of directly assaulting them.

In March, the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade discovered gaps in Ukrainian defenses northwest of Pokrovsk and quickly marched north toward the village of Dobropillia, which sits astride one of just two main supply routes into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

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The Russians lost the subsequent battle for the Dobropillia pocket, but only after the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps—one of Ukraine's main formations then in reserve for emergencies—rushed toward the salient.

Russian drones turn supply routes into kill zones

The Ukrainian counterattack prevented the supply lines from being overrun by Russian infantry, but couldn't prevent the best Russian first-person-view drones—flown by Rubicon and other elite groups—from striking Ukrainian vehicles speeding down the roads into Pokrovsk.

"Virtually every vehicle heading into the city comes under attack," Ukrainian philanthropist Serhii Sternenko warned. "It's impossible to quickly evacuate the wounded. It's impossible to deliver supplies and ammunition on time. The main losses aren't at the positions, but on the road."

Fresh mech assaults tighten Russian grip

Resuming mechanized attacks after a long pause, the Russians continued to close their pincer around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad through October, slowly strangling their Ukrainian garrisons. Now it's too late to save either settlement. "Both towns are effectively lost and recapturing them is nearly impossible," CIT noted, "as AFU reserves were deployed to the neighboring front-line section to stabilize and eliminate the Dobropillia breakthrough."

Today, there are hundreds of Russian infiltrators inside Pokrovsk and more than 100,000 Russians in the wide front around the city.

Parts of just two Ukrainian brigades—the 25th Air Assault Brigade and the 38th Marine Brigade—remain in and around Myrnohrad. They should retreat first, followed by any troopers from the 155th Mechanized Brigade who remain in Pokrovsk.

Escape possible but increasingly deadly

The pincer is closing, but it's not impossible for the Ukrainians to escape. "Although we expect the gray zone to close soon, full encirclement and capture or killing of all soldiers trapped in the pocket cannot be anticipated," CIT explained. "In modern warfare, where Russian advances often involve small units, similar small Ukrainian groups may still be able to break out, despite the risks of drone strikes or firefights."

But the retreat will be dangerous. And the Ukrainians will have to escape on foot, leaving behind any heavy equipment that remains in Myrnohrad.

The order to quit Myrnohrad could have—and, according to some observers, should have—come much earlier. Ukrainian forces are preparing new defensive lines north of Pokrovsk. And with their advantage in drones as well as the natural advantages any defender enjoys over an attacker, the Ukrainians are increasingly adept at defending open terrain where approaching Russian troops have nowhere to hide.

Unlike in cities, where the attacking Russians have everywhere to hide.

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Ukraine's pattern of late withdrawals

Sternenko urged Ukrainian commanders to learn from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and allow plenty of time for an orderly retreat once a city or town becomes indefensible.

But waiting too long to withdraw is becoming a tragic tradition in the Ukrainian armed forces. It happened in Bakhmut. It happened in Avdiivka. It happened in Sudzha.

"Every time, our forces withdrew at the last moment with heavy losses, abandoning property and equipment," Sternenko pointed out. "Not everyone could get out. Some remained in their positions forever."

"This is happening again right now."

Ukrainian troops are dangerously close to being surrounded in the 30-square-kilometer pocket stretching from Pokrovsk east to Myrnohrad. The open end of the pocket, the only escape route for some or all of no fewer than three Ukrainian brigades—the 25th Air Assault Brigade, the 38th Marine Brigade and the 155th Mechanized Brigade—is barely 10 km across.

Commanders have yet to order the garrisons in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad to withdraw north to the next line of Ukrainian defenses.

In any event, it's probably too late for a safe and orderly retreat. Russian drones and artillery can range across the only roads and footpaths out of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. If there's any reason to hope for anything short of a catastrophic withdrawal, it's that the front line in Ukraine isn't really a line anymore—it's a porous zone of contested control.

Maybe all those Ukrainian paratroopers, marines, and mechanized troops can slip out of the pocket the same way Russian troops have been slipping into it—on foot in small groups, at night. But it's risky. And the retreating Ukrainians may leave behind a lot of heavy equipment.

Serhii Sternenko—founder of the Sternenko Fund, which equips Ukrainian forces with drones—surely spoke for many Ukrainians when he voiced his frustration.

Citing chaotic and costly Ukrainian retreats from Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Sudzha, he asked how yet another Ukrainian force could find itself "in a fire sack."

"Every time, our forces withdrew at the last moment with heavy losses, abandoning property and equipment," Sternenko wrote. "Not everyone could get out. Some remained in their positions forever. This is happening again right now."

How this happened is clear to see. A powerful Russian force with more than 100,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles has been marching on Pokrovsk for more than a year since capturing the ruins of Avdiivka, 40 km to the southeast.

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Bloody march

The Ukrainian armed forces bled the Russians for every kilometer they advanced, but the main defensive line was anchored by Pokrovsk itself. That was consistent with Ukraine's urban defense strategy. For nearly four years since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Ukrainian commanders have fortified cities at the expense of the countryside.

That used to make sense. Built-up urban areas can hide and protect infantry fighting on the defensive, helping them repel enemy assaults.

The problem, in 2025, is that Ukraine is desperately short of trained infantry.

"To put it as bluntly as possible: Ukraine has fallen short by at least 10,000 recruits per month over the past two years," Ukraine Control Map explained.

"We don't lack the will to fight," wrote Ryan O'Leary, the former commander of the now-shuttered Chosen Company, a volunteer unit that fought in Ukraine. "We lack the infantry to hold the ground so we can continue fighting."

Ukraine compensates with a large force of tiny explosive drones. But the drones are most effective on open terrain where there's nowhere for their prey to hide.

They're least effective over cities, where their prey has everywhere to hide. If Russian troops can slip through the many wide gaps in Ukrainian defenses, they can accumulate in small but growing numbers inside a city like Pokrovsk.

There, the "overwhelming number of Russian soldiers and the possibility to hide easily from drones inside cities” make a drone-based urban defense “more difficult,” French analyst Clément Molin explained. The drones can't find or hit all the Russians in their basement hideouts. And there are too few Ukrainian infantry to clear out the Russian infiltrators the old-fashioned way: with direct close combat.

Since arriving at the gates of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad late last year, the Russians have been slowly but steadily creeping into both cities in small groups. Today, there are around 250 Russian infantry inside Pokrovsk. That might not seem like a lot, but it's enough to create a lodgement for follow-on forces.

Meanwhile, Russian assaults northeast of Myrnohrad and northwest of Pokrovsk have partially closed a pincer around the twin cities, nearly bottling up the Ukrainians in the settlements. "The enemy cut off our logistics," Sternenko pointed out. Aerial resupply via drone is still possible, but drone resupply can't fully replace ground resupply, which is much more efficient.

There may have been an opportunity for Ukrainian troops to safely leave Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But it was weeks ago. And it required Ukrainian commanders to understand that their most abundant forces—small drones—work best over open terrain.

The old urban defense model may be obsolete.

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