Vue lecture

Why Were Polls So Wrong in the Wisconsin Governor’s Race?

Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist running in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor, had a double-digit lead in polls as recently as last week. Then she lost. What happened?

© Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times

Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, was the front-runner in polls ahead of the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor. But her bid came up short.
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Poll: Voters See Political Parties as More Extreme Than Their Own Candidates

In a New York Times/Siena poll of battleground states, national parties were seen as too far to the right or the left, while nominees were viewed as more moderate.

© John Tully for The New York Times

A wide gap between perception of political parties and individual candidates was revealed in several states, including Iowa, North Carolina and Maine.
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Why Polling Overestimated Abdul El-Sayed’s Advantage in Michigan

Surveys greatly overestimated how Dr. Abdul El-Sayed would fare in the state’s Democratic Senate primary, revealing some typical polling challenges.

© Nick Hagen for The New York Times

Polling ahead of the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan had indicated stronger support for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed than he received on Election Day.
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What Was on the Minds of Michigan Voters? Many Cited the Economy and Trump.

As they cast ballots in the Democratic Senate primary, voters said they were concerned about data centers, health care, Israel and the war with Iran.

© Nick Hagen for The New York Times

As voters went to the polls, they said that they were motivated by a variety of issues.
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