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Russia reactivates Syrian airbase in high-stakes gamble on post-Assad leadership

Russian military aircraft have returned to Syria’s Hmeimim airbase between 24–29 October, ending a months-long suspension that began in March 2025 after President Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed in December 2024. The renewed activity follows Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s 15 October visit to Moscow, where he pledged to uphold existing agreements on key Russian military installations in Syria.
The move underscores Moscow’s urgency to preserve its strategic infrastructure amid shifting alliances in the Middle East. Reactivating Hmeimim enables Russia to sustain logistical operations stretching from Africa to the Mediterranean, directly countering predictions that Moscow would lose its Syrian strongholds after Assad’s fall.
A strategic pivot or an effort to save face?
A source close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg that Russia has fully resumed operations at Hmeimim airbase, corroborated by open-source flight tracking data. A Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-62M transport aircraft flew from Libya to Latakia on 26 October before continuing to Moscow. Meanwhile, Antonov An-124-100 Ruslan heavy cargo planes — capable of hauling tanks and air defense systems — landed at Hmeimim three times between 24–29 October.
Military flights to Hmeimim airbase in Syria have resumed after a nearly six-month pause, as Moscow and Damascus seek to restore ties following the ousting of Russia’s ally, Bashar al-Assad.he ousting of Russia’s ally, Bashar al-Assad.
"The renewal of flights indicates an effort by Russia and Syria to rebuild their bilateral relations after a period of instability for the Syrian leadership," Bloomberg reported.
Putin seeks guarantees as Syria’s new leadership redefines terms
During al-Sharaa’s 15 October Kremlin meeting — his first since taking power — the Syrian president vowed to “respect all agreements concluded throughout the great history” of bilateral relations. His pledge came despite leading Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces, which had toppled the Assad government that Russia once fought to preserve.
Putin, striking a pragmatic tone, said Moscow was ready to renew cooperation on “interesting and useful beginnings” and praised Syria’s recent parliamentary elections.
Talks reportedly focused on Russian involvement in Syrian oil and infrastructure projects. However, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani announced that agreements made with the previous regime are suspended and "not accepted," a statement seen as directly targeting the status of Russia's Assad-era deals.
Diplomatic engagement is accelerating. A Syrian Foreign Ministry delegation visited Moscow on 27 October to reopen the country’s embassy, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Syrian Defense Minister Major General Murhaf Abu Qusra led a three-day official visit to the Russian Federation with senior military officials to discuss renewed defense cooperation, SANA reported.
Russia’s strategic foothold amid wartime strains
Reestablishing operations in Syria is vital for Russia’s ability to project power across multiple regions. The Hmeimim and Tartus bases have long served as logistical lifelines for Russian troops and affiliated units — including the Wagner Group and Africa Corps — active in the Middle East and Africa.
Losing either base would have been a significant strategic setback for Moscow, Bloomberg noted, as the Kremlin remains entangled in a confrontation it created with the United States and Europe over the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump has reportedly courted Syria’s new administration, meeting al-Sharaa twice this year, while Washington and the EU have begun easing sanctions on Damascus.
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has forced it to withdraw much of its expeditionary force from Syria. Maintaining a reduced presence now marks a symbolic win. Still, Bloomberg noted, Russia’s footprint in Syria is expected to be smaller than it was under Assad.
Syria positions itself for reconstruction investments
Syria has attracted $28 billion in investments during the first six months after amending investment laws, President al-Sharaa announced at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. The president emphasized reconstruction should rely on investment rather than foreign aid.
Moscow portrays itself as a benevolent partner keen to answer the call for help.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russian companies are eager to participate in rebuilding Syria’s oil fields, transport networks, and energy systems. “Our companies are interested in using Russian equipment inside Syria, and this topic was discussed extensively during the meeting between Presidents Putin and Al-Sharaa,” Novak told reporters, highlighting Moscow’s long-standing experience in Syria’s energy sector.
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