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ISW: The Kremlin’s Europe distraction playbook just opened to the Balkans chapter

Par :Yuri Zoria

isw kremlin’s europe distraction playbook just opened balkans chapter russian foreign minister sergei lavrov (r) president republika srpska milorad dodik (l) during meeting moscow 9 2025 midru 3 airspace threats

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Kremlin is intensifying its campaign to destabilize the Balkans, likely as part of a broader effort to divide and distract Europe.

“The Kremlin has previously leveraged its relationship with Republika Srpska to further influence the Balkans, sow divisions in Europe, and undermine the US-backed Dayton Accords to throw the Balkans into turmoil,” ISW noted.

Lavrov meets Dodik in Moscow, targets Dayton peace framework

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, in Moscow on 9 September. Republika Srpska is the Serbian political entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Lavrov and Dodik’s meeting marked the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Dayton Accords, which ended the 1992–1995 Bosnian War.

At a press conference following the meeting, Lavrov declared that the Dayton Accords brought an end to what he called NATO “aggression” during its 1995 Operation Deliberate Force. He stated that Russia is one of the guarantors of the December 1995 agreement and accused the West of having “trampled” the deal to seize “undivided control” over Bosnia and Herzegovina while depriving Serbs of their rights.

Lavrov described “external interference” in Bosnia and Herzegovina as inadmissible and condemned what he called Western efforts to remove “undesirable” Serbian leaders from power. He referred to a recent ruling by a Bosnian appeals court that sentenced Dodik for defying the Constitutional Court and ignoring decisions made by an international peace envoy.

ISW: Kremlin aims to dismantle Dayton Accords to sow European division

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 11 September that the Kremlin continues its attempts to destabilize the Balkans and dismantle the Dayton Accords. According to ISW, this effort is part of a broader Kremlin campaign to fracture and distract Europe.

Lavrov warned that “destroying the consensus that underlies Bosnia and Herzegovina is… an invitation to another war in the Balkans.” He also praised Dodik’s plan to hold a referendum in Republika Srpska in October, claiming that “the West does not like referendums,” including Russia’s 2014 Crimea sham plebiscite, which he described as “transparent.”

ISW noted that Lavrov and Dodik met on the same day that Russian drones entered Polish airspace in a major incursion, suggesting a coordinated attempt to test NATO and EU unity.

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