It’s increasingly rare for Russian regiments to organize a large mechanized attack. Running low on armored vehicles but flush with fresh infantry, the Russians increasingly attack on motorcycles, quad bikes … or on foot.

So it’s worth taking note when and where Russians forces roll out some of their vanishingly rare tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. The targets of the infrequent mechanized assaults are some of the Russians’ main objectives as their wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 40th month.

It should come as no surprise that the town of Kostyantynivka is one of those main objectives. Frustrated in their attempts to directly attack the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, Russians forces are trying to flank Pokrovsk—by rolling through Kostyantynivka, 40 km to the northeast. They’re willing to risk some of their armored vehicles for the chance to capture Kostyantynivka.

On Wednesday, a substantial Russian force—around a dozen up-armored BMPs and other vehicles—split into two sections and rolled northeast from Novoolenivka, heading for the village of Yablunivka.

They didn’t get very far. The Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade and 12th Azov Brigade spotted the approaching vehicles—and hit them with drones and potentially other munitions. When the smoke cleared, half or more of the vehicles were on fire.

The Wednesday assault was one of several in the area. All failed. “Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian defense forces positions near Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Yablunivka,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted. “Ukrainian units prevented any deterioration of tactical positions.” 

But “the enemy continues to build up forces for further attacks,” CDS noted. And at least one analyst isn’t optimistic Ukrainian lines will hold. The Russians may be low on armored vehicles, but they’ve got infantry to spare thanks to strong recruiting numbers—driven in part by generous enlistment bonuses.

Mounting damage

“Things aren’t going well for Ukraine,” wrote Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group. 

While the Russian military steadily inducts 30,000 fresh infantry every month—more than enough to replace permanent losses to Ukrainian action and establish a few new units, the Ukrainian military is still struggling to recruit the 80,000 new infantry it needs to fully staff existing brigades. “With current resources, Ukraine can’t win,” Tatarigami claimed. 

“Russians will likely take Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, and Kupiansk is also at risk,” Tatarigami added, without saying when the Russians might take those cities and towns. 

But a Russian advance through and around Pokrovsk wouldn’t necessarily signal catastrophic defeat for Ukraine—nor decisive victory for Russia. “The most optimistic anticipated outcome here is where both sides lose,” Tatarigami explained.

“Russia’s realistic goal … may no longer be outright occupation,” Tatargami added, “but rather rendering Ukraine unviable as a functioning state—undermining its economy, depopulating its cities and precipitating long-term sociopolitical collapse.”

But “the Russian state itself suffers economic and demographic decline,” Tatarigami pointed out. In 40 months, more than a million Russians have been killed or wounded. War spending now accounts for 40% of the Kremlin’s budget. “Even a ‘successful’ outcome in Ukraine could leave Russia so depleted that it enters its own period of internal instability and geopolitical marginalization.” 

“If Ukraine manages to repel Russian advances, why wouldn’t that constitute a victory? Because, as noted, winning a war is not only about holding ground—it’s about what remains afterward.” 

Half a million Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. Entire cities are in ruin. “A country left with ruined infrastructure, lost territories, millions of its citizens displaced and a dramatically aged population with a GDP per capita over twice smaller than Mexico cannot claim a strategic win.” 

It’s better for Ukrainian forces to repulse a Russian mechanized attack than to not repulse a Russian mechanized attack. But that’s fleeting good news in a war that’s catastrophic for both sides. “If you think this has a happy ending,” Tatarigami concluded, “you haven’t been paying attention.”

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Ukraine’s new bike unit mirrors Russia’s dumbest suicidal tactic — and that’s a strategic problem

Today, there are a lot of important updates from the Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Here, between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Russian forces have punched through a vulnerable section of the front, threatening two of Ukraine’s most strategic cities in Donbas. As the breakthrough deepens, both sides are now rushing to tip the balance before the summer offensive reaches full scale.

Recently, Russian forces made relatively rapid gains in a breakthrough between Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka. This breakthrough places key Ukrainian positions in Donbas at risk, including the logistics behind Kostyantynivka and the Myrnograd-Pokrovsk agglomeration, which would open up an axis of advance for the Russians on both Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. This vector of advance is the best chance of frontline progress for the Russians, which is why they are throwing the most forces for attacks here.

This creates a potential vulnerability for the Ukrainians in the defense of both Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Ukrainians understand that this Russian breakthrough will play a pivotal role in the upcoming Russian summer offensive in their effort to take both cities. 

The Russian offensive effort on the other frontlines surrounding Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka is relatively slow, characterized by brutal and grinding battles that lead to meager territorial gains. Meanwhile, in the area of the breakthrough, the Russians managed to advance over 10 kilometers from their initial positions at Vozdvizhenka in less than 2 months of fighting, placing them just 12 kilometers away from Kostyantinivka. Such a continued rate of advance could allow the Russian forces to reach the city during the summer, unless the Ukrainians successfully contain them and stabilize the situation.

Russians achieved these territorial gains through multi-phase assault tactics designed to systematically locate, bombard, and overrun Ukrainian positions. Russians start by probing Ukrainian defenses with small reconnaissance units made up of expendable “suicide squads”, hoping to reveal Ukrainian firing positions.

After several squads have been sent forward, the Russians are then able to accurately identify Ukrainian positions, before hitting them with intense artillery and glide bomb strikes. Following the bombardment, additional Russian infantry squads are sent forward to assess the damage and engage in close-quarters combat if any Ukrainian defenders remain. 

Meanwhile, Russian drones work to isolate the Ukrainians by monitoring and cutting off potential Ukrainian retreat or reinforcement routes, limiting their tactical flexibility. This leaves Ukrainian defenders with a difficult choice: either remain in position and risk being overrun after bombardment, or attempt a retreat under the threat of Russian drones. Regardless of the loss of positions, this Russian tactic usually results in a casualty ratio of at least three to one in favor of the Ukrainians. 

Ukrainians counter this Russian tactic by taking out the initial Russian suicide squads with mines, drone-dropped grenades, and kamikaze strikes. This ensures the Ukrainian defenders do not have to reveal their position by firing on the Russian assault groups. The implementation of these drone interceptions has reportedly increased the casualty ratio in some areas to as high as seven to one, with a number of cases going even higher. 

As a result, these Russian tactics typically succeed only when Ukrainian forces lack sufficient drone support to detect and eliminate the Russian recon squads before they reach the Ukrainian positions, and can commence their bombing strikes. 

This is why, in response to the Russian breakthrough, Ukrainians redeployed elite drone brigades to stabilize the front. The units deployed include the Phoenix drone regiment, whose elite drone operators have already started to successfully counter and destroy Russian heavy equipment and infantry on the move. 

They are further complemented by ground components of the Anne of Kiev Brigade, assigned to reinforce and defend key ground positions from the Russian onslaught while the drone units relieve the pressure. Their experience with past successful counterattacks on the western flank of Pokrovsk will enable them to conduct an active defense, and possibly even push the Russians back around their recent breakthrough. 

Overall, the Russians managed to exploit a critical breakthrough along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway, where the Ukrainians responded promptly to counter the threat. By redeploying elite drone units, such as the Phoenix Regiment, to counter Russian assaults, as well as the Anne of Kiev assault brigade, Ukrainians are effectively closing a weakness in their defensive lines. If the newly redeployed units succeed in their respective missions, they will prevent Russians from consolidating their positions and halt the advance before Russians could translate this into a larger operationally significant gains.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.