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ISW: Russian forces advance to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border
Russian forces have advanced to the administrative boundary between Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts as Kremlin officials “continued to demonstrate that Russia has wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 9 June.
ISW reported that geolocated footage published that day indicates Russian forces recently advanced to the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk administrative border northwest of Horikhove, located southeast of Novopavlivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on 9 June that Russia’s Central Grouping of Forces seized additional territory in unspecified areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Russian military bloggers claimed on 8 June and 9 June that Russian forces, including elements of the 90th Tank Division from the 41st Combined Arms Army within the Central Military District, are conducting combat operations near and across the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
Kremlin declares buffer zone operations
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on 9 June that Russia has begun an offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast “within the framework of the creation of a buffer zone” in Ukraine. First Deputy Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev claimed that Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is now within the “sphere of interests” of the Russian military.
Chairperson of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building Andrei Klishas claimed that Russia’s offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates the beginning of Russia’s “denazification” of the oblast, referencing Russia’s longtime demand for regime change in Ukraine. Chairperson of the Duma Defense Committee Dmitry Sablin claimed that Russia will “definitely take” Dnipro City and other unspecified Ukrainian cities if Ukraine “does not make peace on Russia’s terms.”
Possible preparation for announcing another annexation
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa stated on 5 June that Russia likely seeks to occupy the entirety of Ukraine on the east bank of the Dnipro River, including parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and to seize Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts by the end of 2026.
“Russian officials are likely setting information conditions to illegally declare Dnipropetrovsk Oblast annexed, as ISW has previously assessed,” the think tank wrote.
Kremlin officials have repeatedly signaled that Russia maintains territorial ambitions beyond the four oblasts that Russia has already illegally annexed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov notably repeated a longstanding Kremlin claim that Odesa City is a “Russian” city as recently as 9 June.
“ISW continues to assess that Russia is not interested in peace negotiations with Ukraine and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war in order to make further battlefield gains,” the think tank reported.
ISW continues to assess that current Russian tactical activity in the vicinity of southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast represents a continuation of ongoing Russian offensive efforts in southwestern Donetsk Oblast rather than the beginning of a new major offensive operation to seize operationally significant territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
