Russian forces are trying to trap Ukrainian defenders inside Pokrovsk while moving to encircle the wider Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket from the west, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Fog and road-clearing indicate Russia may use vehicles to speed up clearing Pokrovsk.

Russia pins Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk while pushing to encircle from west

ISW reported late on 17 November that Russian forces may have determined that an encirclement from the west is more feasible than one from the east. Units from the Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAA) and the 51st CAA are attempting to close the ring from the southwest and northeast of Pokrovsk, but both struggle to concentrate forces and achieve major progress. The 51st CAA in particular operates along multiple non-supportive axes—trying to advance north of Pokrovsk, close the pocket, and reduce Ukrainian presence inside it—hindering its effectiveness.

Elements of the 51st CAA are attacking southwest toward Rodynske in an attempt to close the encirclement. Simultaneously, Russian forces northeast of Pokrovsk, including naval infantry likely subordinated to the 8th CAA, are advancing toward Sofiivka and Novopavlivka. Russian forces are also pushing from multiple points around Dobropillia. In response, Ukrainian troops are counterattacking at the base of the salient from both west and east, which ISW says likely aims to blunt Russian efforts to push north.

Ukrainian counterattacks test Russian lines near Dobropillya

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces launched counterattacks near Zapovidne–Ivanivka and Mayak–Nove Shakhove to defend against these Ukrainian moves. ISW notes that Russia likely exploited the Dobropillya axis earlier in 2025 to show signs of momentum ahead of the August Alaska summit. However, a Russian milblogger later admitted the penetration's base was too narrow for logistics, exposing the salient to Ukrainian strikes.

ISW states the 51st CAA has since deprioritized the Dobropillya effort but now faces the dual challenge of defending its eastern flank while advancing to the north and northeast of Pokrovsk. That internal division reportedly weakens the overall push to collapse the Pokrovsk pocket.

Russia pushes on multiple fronts, struggles to collapse pocket

ISW reports that the 2nd CAA is also facing difficulty concentrating forces. Mashovets noted its elements are attacking near Udachne and Kotlyne, southwest of Pokrovsk. This indicates that the 2nd CAA is splitting its efforts between advancing from the west and engaging inside Pokrovsk itself. ISW assesses that Russian forces are trying to fix Ukrainian troops inside Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad to prevent a coordinated withdrawal that could negate a future Russian gain. While the 2nd CAA has made faster progress in the west, it has not yet seized Pokrovsk or collapsed the pocket.

ISW states that Russian troops in this direction have taken some of the heaviest battlefield losses in recent months. Both the 51st and 2nd CAAs are likely degraded, though ISW believes Russia will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad—though the timeline and overall impact remain unclear.

Russia may rely on fog to push troops into Pokrovsk

Mashovets reports that Russian forces are clearing the T-0504 Novoekonomichne–Myrnohrad and O0544 Hrodivka–Myrnohrad roads, east of Myrnohrad, to allow vehicle-borne troops to move in. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces use fog to conceal troop movements, as poor visibility limits Ukrainian drone surveillance and strikes.

Mashovets also notes that small Russian groups are fighting under sub-tactical encirclement conditions in northern Pokrovsk. Ukrainian troops south of the Donetska Railway face similar combat conditions. 

"The inability of Russian small group infiltration tactics to generate sufficient mass to clear Ukrainian forces within Pokrovsk presently will likely force Russian forces to resort to using vehicles during inclement weather conditions to transport large numbers of troops into Pokrovsk," ISW says.