Eight Baltic and Nordic countries announced a joint $500 million weapons and munitions military aid package for Ukraine on 13 November.

The package is designed to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities ahead of winter, as Russia intensifies strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure. It will supply critical weapons and ammunition sourced from the United States through NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative.

Eight northern allies declare "Ukraine's security is directly connected to ours"

The countries involved - Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden - confirmed the package during the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) Defence Ministers’ meeting in Helsinki. 

In a joint statement, they reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s security, calling it “fundamental to European security” and emphasizing the need for long-term, coordinated military support.

The statement said the package is one of many ways the NB8 supports Ukraine’s ability to deter future Russian aggression. “We will not allow [Russia’s war of aggression] to succeed. Ukraine’s security is directly connected to ours,” the ministers said.

How NATO's PURL initiative pools allied funds for urgent Ukraine weapons deliveries

The Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) allows NATO allies to pool funds to purchase US-supplied weapons, munitions, and military equipment for Ukraine. 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed the announcement: “This equipment is extremely important as Ukraine enters the winter months, and deliveries through PURL are flowing into Ukraine. NATO Allies will continue to deliver essential equipment and supplies.”

The aid package will provide high-priority military equipment such as missiles, precision weapons, air defence systems, long-range artillery shells, HIMARS rockets, and guided aerial bombs. 

Norway’s Defence Minister Tore O. Sandvik noted that PURL ensures Ukraine receives urgent equipment quickly, and Sweden highlighted the package’s contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s air-defence capabilities.

Norway leads with $200M, Lithuania commits funds through 2026

Norway is contributing the largest share at roughly NOK 2 billion (~$200 million), Sweden $60 million, Denmark around 400 million Danish kroner (~$53 million), and Lithuania $30 million.

Lithuania also earmarked funds for next year and stressed the importance of using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defence spending.

Beyond weapons: Nordic-Baltic Eight expands brigade training in Poland

The NB8 meeting also addressed broader initiatives, including training Ukrainian brigades in collaboration with Baltic, Nordic, and Polish forces. Lithuania will contribute €12 million worth of equipment, ammunition, grenades, and a mobile training team to the OP-LEGIO Training Centre in Poland.

Ministers emphasized that Russia’s aggression poses a long-term threat to European security, the transatlantic community, and the rules-based international order. 

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said maintaining support for Ukraine will remain central to the NB8’s agenda during Estonia’s presidency next year.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used a media interview to unleash a barrage of accusations against the Baltic States, echoing the same narratives Russia once used to justify its invasions of Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War, this signals a renewed Kremlin effort to set long-term pretext conditions for a possible future attack on Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.

Lavrov escalates anti-Baltic rhetoric in major narrative shift

The Institute says Russia is "conducting multiple information operations against the Baltic States as it did to justify the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Phase Zero conditions-setting for a possible attack on the Baltic States at some point in the future." ISW, however, doesn't predict an "imminent Russian attack on the Baltics" yet.

Lavrov’s comments, given in a 11 November interview to Russian media, combined several long-running Russian propaganda claims into a single statement. He accused Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania of harboring “Russophobia,” promoting “anti-Russian” sentiment, and mistreating Russian speakers. He also alleged that the Baltic States had violated agreements with Russia and painted them as pawns of the United Kingdom. According to Lavrov, they had lost their sovereignty and were no longer truly European.

No signs of imminent attack, but groundwork being laid

ISW assessed that Lavrov’s statements are part of ongoing Russian Phase Zero operations — a strategy to set informational conditions for possible military aggression. It emphasized that such efforts can last for years and do not necessarily result in an attack. ISW said there are no indicators of imminent military preparations against NATO states.

Still, the think tank stressed that these activities echo pre-2022 Russian efforts toward Ukraine and warned against ignoring the parallels.

"ISW’s assessments that these and other activities constitute Phase Zero conditions-setting efforts are meant to call attention to the parallels with pre-2022 Russian conditions-setting efforts vis-à-vis Ukraine but are not an imminent attack warning at this time," the think tank wrote.

The Ukrainian skies are growing stronger. In the coming days, Kyiv will receive two MIM-104 Patriot launcher units from its European partners, according to the German Aid to Ukraine channel. 

European support: Germany, Denmark, Lithuania, and Norway

"Reminder: The in early August 2025 announced delivery of two MIM-104 Patriot fire units from Bundeswehr stocks to Ukraine, which have largely been financed by Denmark, Lithuania and Norway, is scheduled to be completed in the following days!” German Aid to Ukraine wrote on X.

A contract for 25 Patriot systems: a long queue 

In October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is preparing a contract to purchase 25 Patriot systems. Deliveries will take place gradually over several years, as the systems are produced.

“We ask our partners to give up their place in line so that the Patriots are delivered first to Ukraine, not to countries that are not at war,” the Ukrainian leader emphasized.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Air Forces spokesperson Yuri Ihnat said that Russia was modifying its missiles to evade Ukraine’s air defenses, including US-made Patriot systems. 

A Russian marine accused of torturing a Lithuanian citizen in occupied Ukraine has been extradited to Lithuania from Ukraine. This is the first time Ukraine has handed over a Russian suspect to a foreign country for war crimes prosecution since Russia's full-scale invasion began.

Lithuanian court detains Russian soldier over torture of Lithuanian citizen

A Russian soldier suspected of torturing civilians, including a Lithuanian national, in occupied Melitopol has been extradited to Lithuania, Liga and Delfi reported on 31 October. The man, identified as a senior seaman from the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment of Russia’s Caspian flotilla, was transferred on 29 October and placed in pretrial detention in Vilnius for three months by court order the following day.

Lithuanian Prosecutor General Nida Grunskienė announced the extradition at a press conference, calling it a landmark moment in international cooperation. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko, who authorized the transfer, joined her in Vilnius for the announcement.

Authorities say the suspect was directly involved in guarding and abusing detainees. Grunskienė detailed the torture methods allegedly used by the man and his fellow soldiers: beatings, electric shocks, suffocation until unconsciousness, hanging captives by their bound arms, dousing them with freezing water, and confining them in metal safes.

Ukrainian forces captured the suspect in August 2023 near the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kravchenko says. He has since been charged in Lithuania under articles relating to war crimes against civilians and prisoners of war, torture, unlawful imprisonment, and violations of the Geneva Conventions. If convicted, he faces 10 to 20 years or a life sentence.

Kyiv and Vilnius stress message to war criminals

Kravchenko emphasized that the transfer of the suspect was not only a legal step but also a warning.

“This is a clear message to every war criminal: you will not escape responsibility in any country of the free world. Justice will be served,” he said, as cited by Liga.

Baltic companies are quietly sustaining Russia’s “shadow fleet,” helping sanctioned and high-risk tankers to transport Russian oil globally, a joint investigation by LRT, 15min, Eesti Ekspress, and Nekā personīga has found.

Russia’s “shadow fleet” is a network of old, often uninsured tankers with opaque ownership, designed to evade Western sanctions and move Russian oil and petroleum products around the world. These vessels fly under various foreign flags, frequently disable tracking systems, disguise cargo origins, and transfer fuel at sea, allowing Moscow to maintain its energy exports and finance its war effort despite international restrictions.

The investigation tracked the movements of two bunker tankers, Rina and Zircone, which conducted hundreds of ship-to-ship refueling operations between June 2024 and March 2025. 

During this period, the vessels supplied fuel to at least 177 oil tankers, 159 of which had recently visited Russian ports. 

The vessels are linked to Fast Bunkering, a Baltic oil empire founded by Aleksei Tšulets in Estonia. While Tšulets sold the ships in 2023, the investigation found they remain effectively controlled through Dubai-registered FB Trade, using complex offshore structures to obscure ownership.

How shadow fleet operations exploit sanctions loopholes

Many of the tankers the vessels refueled exhibit classic shadow fleet characteristics: they operate without insurance, conceal ownership, and disable tracking systems. 

Experts say these shadow fleet operations exploit loopholes in EU maritime sanctions, which allow for exceptions for refueling vessels transporting Russian oil, provided companies conduct due diligence. 

In practice, the LRT investigation shows these safeguards are often bypassed, with tankers operating largely undisturbed despite repeated EU, US, and UK sanctions.

Fast Bunkering and its affiliates have long used offshore companies and layered corporate structures to hide connections and continue trading Russian fuel, including shipments to India, Brazil, and Libya. 

Western countries struggle to enforce sanctions

“The threat is growing. Russia sees this as an effective weapon - both to undermine European security and to keep its oil flowing,” Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told LRT. He warned that such practices not only expose the slow pace of sanctions enforcement, but also heighten the risk of environmental disasters.

Even after multiple high-profile incidents, including EU sanctions against some of its vessels, Fast Bunkering’s network continues to operate, underscoring the difficulty of policing international waters.

Maritime intelligence analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann told LRT that the shadow fleet has tripled in size since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Russia has spent billions of dollars building this network. In that sense, the sanctions have failed to achieve their intended goal - instead of making the seas safer, they’ve made them more dangerous,” she said.

Broader pattern of sanctions circumvention

A February investigation by Follow the Money found Western shipowners earned over $6 billion by selling aging oil tankers that now transport Russian oil. More than 230 vessels previously owned by Western companies, representing over a third of Russia's shadow fleet, were sold at premium prices.

Despite the US and UK blocking two major Russian oil producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as part of January's largest-ever energy sanctions package, enforcement remains challenging. 

The investigation underscores the continuing challenge for European authorities to monitor and enforce sanctions in the Baltic and beyond, as private companies play a central role in sustaining Russia’s global oil trade.

Lithuania shut down Vilnius Airport for the fourth time in a week after a new wave of suspicious balloon incursions. Authorities blame Belarus for repeated airspace violations and smuggling attempts, triggering serious national security responses. In response, Vilnius indefinitely closed two Belarus border crossings.

Fourth airport shutdown over Belarus-linked balloons

At 9:42 p.m. on 26 October, Vilnius Airport suspended air traffic due to balloons flying toward its airspace. According to Vilnius Airport, the closure lasted until 4:30 a.m. the next morning and affected 47 flights — 13 were cancelled, 14 diverted, and 20 delayed.

The airport warned of further delays due to crew and aircraft rotation issues. Passengers with cancelled flights were told not to come to the airport and to contact their airlines for alternatives. Airlines were instructed to provide full details on next steps.

Lithuania accuses Belarus of using meteorological balloons for smuggling and destabilization. Officials believe the incidents form part of a deliberate pattern targeting the country’s airspace and borders.

Border crossings closed indefinitely

At 10:10 p.m. the same evening, Lithuania closed the Medininkai and Šalčininkai border checkpoints. The State Border Guard Service (VSAT) reported the halt in the movement of vehicles and individuals following new balloon incursions from Belarus, according to LRT.

Interior Minister Vladislavas Kondratovičius announced on Facebook that the closure would remain in place until a separate decision by the National Security Commission. He called the move essential to safeguard national security and resist hybrid threats.

Lithuania's Ministry of Defense has conducted intensive training exercises for mobile anti-aircraft fire groups at the General Silvestras Žukauskas training ground in Pabrade, less than ten kilometers from the Belarus border, according to an official announcement.

The drills involved units equipped with large-caliber machine guns and mobile armored vehicles fitted with machine gun modules. Military personnel tested various weapons systems against unmanned aerial vehicles, including launching missiles from the RBS surface-to-air missile system. An aircraft-type drone painted orange for better visibility during firing served as the target.

The exercises come after Lithuania's Seimas approved amendments in September expanding military authority to engage hostile drones. Under the new regulations, the defense minister or an authorized representative can permit the use of military assets against drones in prohibited or restricted zones when unmanned aircraft violate established rules or restrictions.

Previously, military forces could only shoot down aircraft used as weapons in forbidden zones. "The new norms will allow the military to respond more flexibly and effectively to airspace violations," the Ministry of Defense reported. "If necessary, they will be able to quickly neutralize dangerous drones."

The policy shift follows an incident where a Russian Gerber drone entered Lithuanian airspace, prompting security services to send government officials to shelter. Fragments of the downed Russian UAV were recovered in August 2025.

The ministry emphasized that military assets will not be deployed in all cases. Their use is permitted only under conditions of "absolute military necessity" with all safety measures observed to prevent harm to people and property.

The amendments to the Aviation Law also establish mechanisms for designating restricted zones and procedures for notification in case of airspace violations. The changes position Lithuania to respond rapidly to threats from unmanned systems, which are increasingly used in contemporary conflicts.

Lithuania has signed a memorandum with American defense firm Northrop Grumman and Norwegian Nammo to secure the production of ammunition amid Russia's war against Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced on June 24.

"By strengthening our national defense industry, we are investing in both technological capabilities and Lithuania’s resilience to crises. This Memorandum of Understanding will allow us to better equip our armed forces and help Lithuania become an important link in international supply chains," Lithuanian Vice Minister of National Defense Loreta Maskalioviene said.

"The investment and expertise of our allies... will significantly contribute to strengthening of the national defense industry and security not only in Lithuania, but also in the entire region, including Ukraine. The development of the defense industry and investment in production must come without delay," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sadzius said.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has sparked concern in Europe that Russia could attack NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, the Baltic countries, and Finland.

Ukrainian intelligence has evidence that Russia is preparing new military operations in Europe, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 22.

The partnership will be implemented at the state-owned Giraite Armament Factory, the announcement said, adding that the factory is set to be integrated into Northrop Grumman’s international supply chains.

Northrop Grumman will supply ammunition produced in the Lithuanian defense factory to the international market.

Nammo, as a subcontractor, will provide Northrop Grumman with the 35 mm ammunition production technology.

"It will enhance national strategic autonomy in defense and deepen partnerships with NATO allies, the United States, and Norway. The planned production of ammunition is of critical importance to the Lithuanian Armed Forces, our allies, and Ukraine," Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said.

The memorandum will initiate negotiations for the production of medium caliber ammunition, ranging in size from 20-50 mm.

The Giraite Armament Factory will be provided with 35 mm ammunition production technology from the two defense firms, the announcement said.

Sakaliene noted that the new partnership will ensure an uninterrupted supply of ammunition to Lithuania's Armed Forces.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

‘Like any technology, it’s a race’ — UK’s largest ammo maker rebooting chemistry to break NATO’s dependence on explosive imports

Russia’s war in Ukraine has drained Western ammunition stocks. Despite years of claimed weapons ramp-ups, NATO’s arms manufacturing is still not refilling those stocks apace, let alone making it to Ukraine in needed mass. The West has come to recognize that these shortages are due to the offshoring

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

An invitation for Ukraine to become a member of NATO "is not on the agenda" of the upcoming summit in The Hague, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in an interview with the Baltic News Service published on June 18.

"This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

"There is no such expectation that there will be breakthrough decisions, neither before the Washington summit nor now before the Hague summit – it is not on the agenda."

The comments, coming less than a week before the summit, hint at a shifting rhetoric within the alliance regarding Ukraine's potential membership after U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

The new Trump administration has spoken out against Kyiv's accession, and the U.S. president even echoed the false Russian narratives that its efforts to join NATO helped instigate Russia's full-scale invasion.

Unlike during the previous summits, the final communique may reportedly completely omit the topic of Ukraine's membership, as NATO members seek to avoid a conflict with Trump. The gathering was also preceded by rumors that Ukraine may not be invited due to U.S. opposition, but the invitation was extended in the end.

In spite of these tensions, Budrys said that the summit should keep its focus on Ukraine, stressing that the war-torn country is part of the Euro-Atlantic security space.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion. The alliance has signaled support for Kyiv's accession efforts in previous years, even declaring at the Washington summit in 2024 that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" — but stopping short of a formal invite.

Kyiv's swift entry seems increasingly unlikely amid opposition from the U.S. and several other members, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reaffirmed that a political commitment to Ukraine's membership stands. Ukraine would need support from all 32 members to join.

It remains uncertain whether The Hague summit will lead to any breakthroughs regarding Ukraine. Following signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may not attend the event, the Guardian reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky may skip the summit as well.

Tired of military aid delays, Ukraine has designed its own ballistic missile — and it’s already in mass-production

Ukraine announced on June 13 that its short-range Sapsan ballistic missile would go into mass production, a major development in Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to domestically produce the weapons it needs to fight Russia’s full-scale invasion. As Ukraine faces growing challenges in securing weapons from Western partners, and Russia continues launching

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Russia is exploiting automatic medical exemptions in EU sanctions regulations to import dual-use goods for its military, Lithuania's Deputy Foreign Minister Gabija Grigaite-Daugirde told Bloomberg on June 12.

According to Grigaite-Daugirde, Lithuanian customs authorities blocked 28,854 goods in 2024 that were allegedly destined for Russia and Belarus "under the guise of medical exemption."

Many of the flagged shipments contained parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copiers, and microelectronics — all of which can have military applications.

"We have witnessed parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copying machines, and other types of microelectronics being exported directly to Russia, claiming that these are bound for medical use," she said.

Under current EU rules, medical exemptions are automatically granted, leaving customs authorities to investigate the shipments retroactively. Lithuania has called for reforms allowing exporters to apply for exemptions before shipments are approved.

"Leaving automatic exemptions from sanctions for medical goods is like closing a door but leaving a keyhole," Grigaite-Daugirde said. "Russia definitely finds a way to pass."

As Moscow shifts to a wartime economy and seeks Western-made technology for its arms production, its efforts to circumvent sanctions have grown "desperate," she added.

Lithuania, a key EU and NATO member bordering both Belarus and Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, has taken a hardline stance on enforcement and regularly pushes for tougher sanctions within the bloc.

Why can’t the West match Russia’s ammunition production?

The West is failing to catch up to Russia’s production of the most basic unit of war for the past half-millennium — gunpowder. The modern propellants and explosives that power war have largely been offshored. While Western manufacturers are churning out shell casings, they are short on the materials to fill

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post