Ukraine’s hryvnia will remain stable around 43.5 per dollar through 2025, Dragon Capital chief economist Olena Bilan said on the “What’s Up with Economy?” podcast this week.

The forecast from Ukraine’s largest investment firm comes as the National Bank actively defends the currency despite ongoing war pressures and mounting labor shortages.

“The National Bank has more room to maneuver and more opportunities to keep the exchange rate more or less stable,” Bilan said. “So it is possible that we will not see any significant shifts by the end of the year.”

According to the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, the central bank sold $3.4 billion in July to support the hryvnia while international reserves fell from $45.1 billion to $43.0 billion. Recent policy moves include expanding the types of government bonds banks can use for reserves and encouraging domestic financing without money printing.

“The main goal of all NBU actions is to bring inflation back to target and keep it there.”

However, Ukraine faces a growing challenge due to its shrinking workforce. “Since 2023, there has been a significant shortage of personnel on the labor market, especially skilled workers, which is pushing wages up,” Bilan warned. Continued mobilization keeps draining workers from the economy, creating wage pressures that threaten price stability.

Economic data shows this tension. Inflation was 14.1% in July with consumer prices falling 0.2% month-on-month, but the NBU raised its 2025 inflation forecast from 8.7% to 9.7% while cutting GDP growth projections from 3.1% to 2.1%.

Dragon Capital’s 43.5 forecast strengthened from earlier projections of 44, reflecting confidence in monetary policy management.

The bigger question is whether Ukraine can maintain this balance between mobilization needs and economic stability as the war continues. Bilan’s cautious optimism suggests 2025 will test both the central bank’s tools and the economy’s resilience.