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Azerbaijan demands Russia admit guilt in downing passenger jet with air defense as Moscow stonewalls investigation
Seven months after an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed near Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, President Ilham Aliyev has had enough of Russia’s stonewalling.
Azerbaijan is preparing legal documents for international courts, targeting Russia over what Baku calls the deliberate downing of its civilian aircraft. The move escalates a diplomatic crisis that has simmered since 25 December, when flight J2-8243 was went down near Aktau.
Why the dramatic step? Russia’s investigation has produced nothing but bureaucratic delays, according to President Aliyev.
“Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General keeps writing to Russia’s Investigative Committee,” Aliyev told reporters, as reported by AZERTAC. “The response is always the same: ‘the investigation continues.'”
But Azerbaijan isn’t buying it. “For us, everything is clear. We know what happened, and we can prove it. And we know that Russian officials also know what happened,” Aliyev said bluntly.
Russian air defense most likely led to plane crash
Flight J2-8243 left Baku bound for Grozny, Russia’s republic of Chechnya, that December morning. It never arrived.
Instead, after multiple course changes, the plane crashed hundreds of miles off course near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people aboard.
Russian authorities quickly blamed bird strikes and bad weather—fog had closed Grozny airport, they said, forcing the reroute.
The explanation unraveled under scrutiny. Flight tracking data from Flightradar24 showed the plane’s GPS signal had been jammed near Grozny. More damaging: social media photos revealed puncture marks across the aircraft’s tail section that looked suspiciously like shrapnel damage.
OSINT analysts compared the damage patterns to known effects of Pantsir air defense missiles. The same morning, Grozny airport had implemented “Carpet” protocols—emergency closures during Ukrainian drone attacks.
Earlier, Azerbaijan’s President already stated that the aircraft was damaged by external fire, caused by electronic warfare systems that rendered the plane uncontrollable, and ground fire that severely damaged its tail.
Aliyev emphasized that the plane was shot down accidentally by Russian air defenses responding to threats in the area, and he condemned the poor coordination and failure to close Russian airspace.
The Azerbaijani president also dismissed Russian explanations that a Ukrainian drone was responsible. “There were two attacks on the aircraft. So imagine: a Ukrainian drone flies in, targets the Azerbaijani aircraft, hits it, falls, and then attacks again. This is a kindergarten story,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov stated flatly that a Russian missile caused the crash, likely fired during anti-drone operations around Grozny.
Azerbaijan ready to wait for years to get justice
Baku has outlined four non-negotiable demands:
- Russia must admit responsibility
- punish those who fired the missile
- compensate victims’ families
- reimburse Azerbaijan Airlines for the lost aircraft.
Russia’s response? More delays.
Aliyev referenced the decade-long legal battle over Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, which Russia shot down over Ukraine in 2014.
“We are ready to wait ten years, but justice must prevail,” he said.
Only in 2025, after more than ten years, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) issued a historic ruling holding Russia responsible for the downing of MH17, recognizing Russia’s effective control over separatist territories.
European court makes history: Russia guilty of Ukraine human rights violations since 2014 and plane downing MH17
In February 2025, Azerbaijan also officially expelled Rossotrudnichestvo, the main Kremlin propaganda and soft power agency, from its territory, citing the protection of national interests and refusal to tolerate external interference. Azerbaijani authorities took control of the agency’s headquarters in Baku, the so-called Russian House, after discovering it operated without proper registration.
Rossotrudnichestvo, known for orchestrating pro-Russian rallies and suspected intelligence activities, was seen as an instrument of Kremlin influence and disinformation.
Azerbaijan expressed growing tensions and openly criticized Russia, including suspending cultural events linked to Russia and detaining Russian journalists suspected of intelligence activities, so their relations have sharply deteriorated.
