Stability in Ukraine is in China’s own interest, and Beijing holds the most powerful levers to influence Moscow and urge Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to end the war, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi says, according to UkrInform. 

Tykhyi calls on China, which has been called the main sponsor of Russia’s war, to view Ukraine not merely as another European country, but as a future member of the European Union. He emphasizes that “Ukraine–China relations are ongoing, dialogue exists.” Kyiv is also openly responding to instances of Chinese citizens participating in combat on Russia’s side or engaging in acts of industrial espionage.

For instance, on 9 July, Kyiv detained two Chinese nationals, accused of attempting to steal classified documentation on Ukraine’s Neptune anti-ship missile system. The weapon that sank Russia’s flagship Moskva.

The younger suspect studied at a Kyiv technical university until 2023, when he was expelled for poor grades. Instead of returning to China, he stayed in Ukraine. The SBU suggests he used his remaining contacts to target someone with access to advanced weapons development.

“Recently, Chinese nationals were detained for gathering sensitive information about Ukrainian weapons. These facts are not being concealed,” the spokesperson says, adding that such incidents damage bilateral relations, and Ukraine cannot ignore threats amid all-out war.

Earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a senior EU diplomat that China “cannot accept” Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine, arguing that such an outcome would allow the US to focus its foreign policy on Beijing. However, this does not fully indicate that Beijing is focused on Moscow’s victory. 

Trump activates drawdown powers for the first time in his current term to approve Ukraine military aid, according to Reuters. The $300 million package may reportedly include Patriot missile systems and guided rockets—probably, GMLRS for HIMARS systems.

Trump may be activating drawdown powers to send $300 million in arms from existing US stockpiles

Two sources familiar with the decision told Reuters the aid would come from US weapons already in storage. The package is expected to be pulled from Pentagon stockpiles using Presidential Drawdown Authority. One of the sources said a final decision on the equipment could be made at a meeting on “Thursday.”

The reported $300 million in aid may include defensive Patriot missile interceptors and offensive medium-range rockets. However, “a decision on the exact equipment has not been made,” according to a source. According to Reuters, the equipment is likely to be delivered quickly because the systems are already staged in Europe.

Reuters said the Pentagon and the White House declined to comment when asked about the plans.

First planned direct aid under Trump since return to office

By now, the Trump administration has only “approved”—or, more accurately, did not block—deliveries authorized under Biden.

If finalized, it would be the first time Trump activates drawdown powers to directly send weapons to Ukraine, Reuters notes. The use of authority may show a shift in Trump’s Ukraine policy.

Presidential Drawdown Authority allows the president to transfer weapons quickly from US stocks, bypassing the need for new legislation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine’s collapse is near, according to The New York Times. The paper reports that this belief is driving a sharp escalation in Russia’s war. Despite multiple calls with US President Donald Trump, the Kremlin continues to press forward. Russian insiders told NYT that Moscow expects Ukraine’s defenses to fall and sees no reason to compromise.

Putin rejects any pause, believing Ukraine’s collapse is near

Two people close to the Kremlin told NYT that Putin expects Ukraine’s front lines to fail within months. They said the Russian president views any halt in fighting as unacceptable unless Ukraine agrees to sweeping concessions.

“He will not sacrifice his goals in Ukraine for the sake of improving relations with Trump,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Putin believes he sees momentum on the battlefield and believes time favors Moscow. He continues to press for Ukrainian capitulation rather than any negotiated freeze of his was in Ukraine.

Trump’s personal diplomacy fails to slow Moscow’s offensive

Since February, Trump has spoken with Putin by phone six times. Russia and Ukraine also held two rounds of direct talks in Istanbul.

On 9 July 2025, Trump voiced his anger:

“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin,” he told reporters. “He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

Despite the breakdown, Putin continued to praise Trump. At a 27 June press conference in Belarus, he called him “a courageous man.” Referring to Trump’s frustration, Putin added:

“That’s how it is. Real life is always more complicated than the idea of it.”

Putin reiterates goals: NATO rollback, Ukraine neutrality, legal changes

The Kremlin’s war aims now go far beyond territorial control. Putin demands that NATO halt eastward expansion and remove infrastructure from Eastern Europe. He also wants Ukraine to adopt a neutral status and reduce the size of its military. Another key demand: alleged protection for the Russian language in Ukrainian law.

Most significantly, Putin insists Ukraine withdraw all forces from its territory claimed by Russia. That condition continues to block any potential cease-fire.

Kremlin sees no value in compromise — yet

For Putin, the re-opening of direct contact with Trump marked a diplomatic breakthrough after years of Biden-era isolation.

Still, the Kremlin is frustrated that Trump refuses to separate peace in Ukraine from broader US-Russia ties. That approach has stalled Moscow’s hopes of striking a deal quickly, NYT says.

US President Trump reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call on 4 July that he wasn’t responsible for the pause in US weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported on 7 July that Trump blamed the Pentagon and said he never gave an order to freeze military aid.

People briefed on the call told WSJ that Trump explained he had initiated a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles after recent US strikes on Iran but had not intended for that process to block shipments to Kyiv.

According to WSJ, Trump assured Zelenskyy the United States would send as much military aid as it can spare. Zelenskyy later called the conversation “probably the best… in all this time” and thanked Trump for his “readiness to help” during his 5 July address.

Weapons deliveries resume after Trump shifts stance

On 7 July, Trump confirmed publicly that the United States would resume sending weapons to Ukraine.

“They are getting hit very hard. We’re gonna have to send more weapons,” he said during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement the same day:

“At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves.”

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Trump flips on Ukraine weapons cutoff: “We have to help them”

According to a March 2025 State Department fact sheet, the US has provided $66.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

US President Donald Trump has ordered the delivery of more weapons to Kyiv, days after the Department of Defense paused military shipments to Ukraine amid the ongoing Russian invasion of the country. The Pentagon confirmed the new deliveries, stating they were directed by Trump to ensure Ukraine can defend itself amid intensifying Russian attacks.

“We’re going to send some more weapons — we have to,” Trump says

Speaking on 7 July 2025 at the White House during a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said the United States would resume arms shipments to Ukraine, according to multiple media reports.

“We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now,” Trump told reporters. “Defensive weapons, primarily, but they’re getting hit very, very hard. So many people are dying in that mess.”

Trump also expressed clear dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating,

“I’m disappointed, frankly, that President Putin hasn’t stopped. I’m not happy with President Putin at all.”

US President Trump: We're gonna to send some more weapons to Ukraine. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. pic.twitter.com/TiroEZwScW

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) July 8, 2025

These remarks came after a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 4 July. According to Zelenskyy, the discussion covered Russian airstrikes and the broader front line, with the leaders agreeing to work together on strengthening Ukraine’s air defense.

“President Trump is very well-informed, and I thank him for his attention to Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said after the call.

Pentagon confirms shift: weapons to help stop the killing

Soon after Trump’s public comments, the Department of Defense issued an official statement confirming resumed military support.

“At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops,” said Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell.

Parnell added that the framework for evaluating global military shipments “remains in effect and is integral to our America First defense priorities” — the same justification, used earlier by the Pentagon to justify the suspension of weapon supplies.

Explore further

Forbes: Trump can’t stop the war with words — but he can with Russian money

A brief but turbulent pause in support

Trump’s promised to send more weapons to Ukraine followed a short but controversial pause in arms shipments, which had sparked backlash in Washington and among European allies. The Pentagon’s pause, initiated around 30 June, halted deliveries of air defense munitions, Patriot missile interceptors, and precision-guided artillery rounds. US officials cited concerns about allegedly declining stockpiles.

Trump had defended the pause at first, stating the US needed “to make sure we have enough for ourselves.” The White House said the decision was based on a Department of Defense review and framed it as part of the administration’s policy to prioritize US interests.

According to the New York Times and Bloomberg, the halt was ordered after a review launched by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Two people familiar with the matter told the NYT that someone at the Pentagon classified weapons into categories and suspended those intended for Ukraine. Reports indicated the White House was initially unaware of the Pentagon’s decision.

Russia escalates with record air assault on Ukraine

Trump’s shift came shortly after Russia launched the largest combined drone and missile barrage of the war so far, killing at least 11 civilians and injuring over 80, including seven children, as reported by AP. The attack targeted Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities and occurred hours after Trump spoke with Putin on 3 July. Trump later told reporters he made “no progress” with the Russian leader during the call.

Similar Russian air attacks, targeting residential area in the cities far behind the frontline, occur every day. 

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Trump satisfied with Zelensky call, suggests Patriot missiles still possible for Ukraine despite deliveries halt

Pause triggered alarm in Washington and Europe

The halt in aid led to concern that Ukraine’s defenses could be weakened at a critical moment. US lawmakers from both parties, including Republican Representatives Don Bacon and Michael McCaul and Democrat Marcy Kaptur, pushed for an investigation into how the decision was made.

According to NBC News, senior military officials assessed that continuing support to Ukraine would not reduce US stockpiles below critical readiness levels. Three officials said that the Pentagon’s Joint Staff concluded that delivering the paused munitions would not jeopardize US capabilities.

Mixed messaging and internal divisions

While the White House eventually confirmed the pause publicly through Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, Trump had remained silent until after the Russian assault and his calls with Putin and Zelenskyy. As Atlantic Council analyst John E. Herbst noted, the policy reversal highlighted tensions between factions within the administration — with figures like Hegseth and others seen as more aligned with a “restrainer” view, skeptical of continued large-scale support to Ukraine.

Trump’s ultimate decision to resume aid aligned with the positions he had expressed at the June NATO Summit in The Hague, where he voiced support for helping Ukraine acquire more Patriot systems. Ukrainian officials said they had not received formal notice of a change in aid schedules but were tracking developments closely.

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“Only Russia is friend of Russia,” says Russian general amid Trump’s peace efforts

Trump administration’s Ukraine pause exposes internal divide

The Atlantic Council’s John E. Herbst says the Pentagon’s short-lived aid pause revealed deep policy splits within Trump’s team. He noted that “administration policy on Russia and Ukraine is put together with the input of people with vastly different worldviews,” citing “restrainers” like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and DNI Tulsi Gabbard.

Herbst suggested the pause was likely to end soon, though he warned that “restrainers are still in the game.” He contrasted the administration’s softer posture toward Russia with its assertive stance on Iran, describing it as part of a broader reluctance to challenge the Kremlin.

Looking forward

The resumption of shipments reestablishes a key supply line for Ukraine at a time of heightened Russian aggression. Though the list of weapons included in the resumed aid was not disclosed, Trump has also earlier suggested the US might sell additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine.

“They’re going to need something because they’re being hit pretty hard,” he said last week aboard Air Force One.

Read the follow-up:

WSJ: Trump blames Pentagon, not himself, for Ukraine weapons pause

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow and Budapest should “unite efforts” in defending their “compatriots” in Ukraine — a term the Kremlin uses to justify interference in foreign states. The comments appeared in an exclusive interview with Magyar Nemzet, a pro-government Hungarian newspaper, published on 7 July 2025.

Lavrov has repeatedly invoked the concept of “defending compatriots” as part of Russia’s stated goals in Ukraine. In this interview, he again mentioned it while proposing joint steps with Hungary.

Speaking to Magyar Nemzet, Lavrov said:

“Today, Russia and Hungary are openly speaking out in defense of their compatriots. We can unite our efforts in this regard,” Lavrov stated.

Lavrov blames Kyiv for alleged discriminatory policies against minorities, while Russia kills Ukrainian civilians every day

Lavrov repeated the Kremlin’s narrative that Ukrainian authorities target Russian-speaking citizens and other national communities. He said that after 2014, Ukraine ostensibly pursued policies aimed at erasing Russian language, culture, traditions, “canonical” orthodoxy—meaning Moscow’s church in Ukraine—and media.

Lavrov said Hungary is well aware of what he called the “forced Ukrainization” of minorities, including ethnic Hungarians. He stated that both Russia and Hungary are already speaking out in defense of their compatriots and proposed that the two countries unite their efforts. He presented the issue as one affecting language, identity, and rights — and as a shared cause for coordinated action.

He accused Kyiv of “destroying everything connected to Russia, Russians, and Russian-speaking people” in areas it controls. Lavrov added that other ethnic groups, including Hungarians, Romanians, Poles, Bulgarians, Greeks, Armenians, and Belarusians ostensibly “also underwent violent Ukrainization.”

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Hungary and Slovakia block new EU sanctions against Russia, Szijjártó says

Kremlin praises Hungary’s cooperation and ongoing projects

Lavrov praised Hungary’s stance toward Russia, calling it “balanced” and “pragmatic.” He noted that Hungary follows this course despite “constant pressure from NATO and the EU.”

He highlighted that “despite anti-Russian sanctions” Russian-Hungarian economic cooperation continues, including energy shipments and the Paks nuclear plant expansion. 

Lavrov reiterates demand for Ukraine’s de facto capitulation, blames NATO and Kyiv for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Lavrov rejected any ceasefire that would allegedly allow “Kyiv regime” (Russia’s euphemism for Ukraine to deny its sovereignty, – Ed.) to regroup, stating that Moscow seeks a “lasting peace” instead. He demanded full removal of Western sanctions, return of seized Russian assets, withdrawal of all legal claims, and Ukraine’s total demilitarization and “denazification.”

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Sanctions hit harder than bombs: Russian courts reveal systemic failure in weapons supply

He also insisted Kyiv must recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Ukraine’s Russian-occupied regions. According to him, those are Crimea, Sevastopol — a city in Crimea which Russia considers a separate entity, Donetsk and Luhansk — which Lavrov referred to as “people’s republics,” Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russia does not even control in their entirety the latter four oblasts.

The Russian Foreign Minister once again repeated the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was allegedly provoked by NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s pursuit of alliance membership. He also reiterated the Kremlin’s false claim that “Russians were persecuted and killed” in Ukraine following what he called the “February 2014 state coup in Kyiv.”

“After 2014, Ukrainian punitive squads killed more than ten thousand Russian and Russian-speaking Donbas residents — innocent civilians,” Lavrov stated, invoking a fabricated death toll often used in Russian propaganda without evidence.

In reality, the UN reported about 4,300 military and civilian deaths in the Donbas, with 3,404 civilian deaths.

Politico noted that Lavrov’s remarks, aimed at encouraging Hungary to more openly back Moscow, come as Russia tries to “get Budapest to more overtly support its ongoing full-scale invasion.”

Trump can make Russia pay — not by deploying troops, but by taking action with what’s already in US hands. As detailed in a Forbes op-ed by Andy J. Semotiuk, after President Trump’s recent phone call with Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin rejected any peace and resumed bombing Ukraine.

Reports indicated that Russia launched nearly 5,500 missiles and rockets in June 2025 alone. Up to 1,000 drone strikes per day could hit Ukraine in August.

Even as the West backs Ukraine militarily, it continues buying Russian oil and gas — channeling far more money into Putin’s war machine than it sends to Ukraine, Forbes says. Since February 2022, Western energy payments have tripled the aid given to Kyiv. Russia, meanwhile, has inflicted over $552 billion in theft and destruction — looting grain, steel, industrial equipment, and flattening critical infrastructure.

Russia’s looting campaign has cost Ukraine over half a trillion dollars

According to Forbes, Russia has inflicted more than $552 billion in theft and destruction across Ukraine — seizing over 1,150 companies, looting grain and steel, and devastating infrastructure. These losses underscore the scale of Moscow’s economic war alongside its military one.

Forbes: Trump can’t stop the war with words — but he can with Russian money

Frozen Kremlin assets can fund Ukraine’s defense

Semotiuk notes that $330 billion in frozen Russian sovereign funds are sitting untouched in Western banks. Trump can make Russia pay by leading a legal effort to seize those funds — a move with precedent, as the US has done with Iraq and Afghanistan. That money alone could cover Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction for three years. Acting swiftly would likely push allies like Canada, the UK, and EU states to follow.

Historian Timothy Ash, quoted in the op-ed, estimates Ukraine needs $150 billion annually to secure victory. If it loses, NATO could face over $4.5 trillion in defense spending within a decade. Mass refugee waves, destabilized markets, and aggressive moves by China or North Korea would likely follow. Funding Ukraine now prevents far greater costs later — both financial and strategic.

Shift energy policy to isolate Russia and protect US interests

Semotiuk argues that supporting Ukraine also means cutting off Russia’s revenue stream. The US and its allies — especially Canada — have the capacity to replace Russian energy in global markets. That would boost Western economies and deny Putin the cash to wage war. Countries still purchasing Russian oil — including China, India, Türkiye, Brazil, and several EU members — should face strict US sanctions.

Ukraine has earned America’s support — and needs it now

For over 30 years, Ukraine has supported every major US military operation. In return, Washington pledged protection in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal. Turning away now, Semotiuk warns, would shatter US credibility.

The op-ed notes that Ukraine has already inflicted immense damage on Russia’s military: over a million troops dead or wounded, the Black Sea Fleet decimated, and weapons facilities under constant attack. All without a single American soldier on the battlefield.

Late on 2 July, the Pentagon and the US State Department have confirmed the Trump administration’s decision to suspend certain arms supplies to Ukraine amid Russia’s ongoing invasion. Officials described the Ukraine arms pause as part of a broader capability review to prioritize US defense readiness and the President’s “America First” foreign policy.

Pentagon says weapons “review” is “common sense” step

At a Pentagon briefing on 2 July, Chief Spokesman Sean Parnell stated the Department of Defense continues to offer the president “robust options” on Ukraine aid, in line with his goal of ending the war. Parnell emphasized the pause is part of a “capability review” to align support with national defense priorities and “preserving US military readiness.”

“We will not be providing any updates to specific quantities or types of munitions being provided to Ukraine,” Parnell said, insisting the move is a “common sense, pragmatic step” towards evaluation “what munitions are sent and where.”

Explore further

Russian battlefield gains expected after US aid pause, ISW warns

He added,

“Let it be known that our military has everything that it needs to conduct any mission, anywhere, anytime.”

When questioned about the risk that the Ukraine arms pause might embolden Russia, Parnell replied that peace remains Trump’s highest aspiration, not explaining how it may stop Russia.

“Our job at the Department of Defense is to pursue the president’s America First agenda and make sure that we achieve peace through strength throughout the world,” he stated.

No clarity on timeline or weapons affected

When pressed for details about when the aid pause began or what weapons are being held back, Parnell declined to answer.

“Ultimately, the President and the Secretary will make those decisions about what happens with those weapon systems,” he said.

He also criticized the Biden administration’s prior Ukraine policy, stating it gave away weapons “without really thinking about how many we have.”

“The President’s strategic outset with regards to Ukraine and Russia has been one of peace,” Parnell said, referring to Trump’s months-long failed attempt to force Ukraine and Russia into a peace deal — once again confirming the administration’s continued reliance on an unrealistic diplomatic effort.

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FT opinion: Russia may last a year. Ukraine risks collapse within half a year without urgent aid

State Dept claims arms assistance continues

During a press briefing on 2 July, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce echoed that diplomacy remains Washington’s focus. She stressed that the Department of Defense manages weapons decisions and repeated that the administration’s goal is a “durable, negotiated settlement” between Russia and Ukraine.

Responding to concerns over the timing and communication of the aid pause — Kyiv said it had not received any official notifications — Bruce claimed,

“Our communication lines with Ukraine have always been robust,” but declined to clarify how or when Ukraine was allegedly informed.

Bruce stated,

“This is not a cessation of us assisting Ukraine or of providing weapons. This is one event in one situation.”

The United States has halted key weapons deliveries to Ukraine, a move that think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns could accelerate Russian battlefield gains and force Ukrainian troops to conserve dwindling resources. The suspension, which affected munitions already staged in Poland, caught Ukrainian authorities off guard and threatens to weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold the line.

Ukraine not notified before US halted weapons

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated that no official notification was given prior to the US announcement about the aid suspension. The New York Times reported US officials as saying the munitions weren’t scheduled for delivery for several months, but the Wall Street Journal contradicted this, noting that deliveries already staged in Poland were halted as of 1 July. Politico cited a Trump administration official as saying no additional aid has been requested, but that remaining Biden-era packages could sustain Ukraine “several more months.”

Ukrainian forces continue to husband matériel

A deputy battalion commander told the Washington Post in a 2 July article that Ukrainian troops are now focused on holding defensive positions rather than advancing. This echoes past situations when US aid suspensions forced Ukrainian forces to ration air defense interceptors, GMLRS rockets, and artillery shells.

While European partners are increasing support and Ukraine’s domestic defense industry is expanding, ISW assessed that only the United States can provide some crucial systems at the necessary scale and speed.

“Ukrainian forces very likely will have to conserve materiel again should the United States continue to suspend weapons deliveries,” ISW wrote.

Russian offensives benefit from past US aid delays

According to ISW, past pauses in US assistance have created openings for Russian forces. During the fall 2023 and winter-spring 2024 suspensions – when the US Congress Republicans delayed approving the Ukraine aid funding for six months.

During this period, Russian troops intensified offensives, particularly around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. In January 2024, Russia ramped up its assault on the settlement, eventually capturing it in February while Ukrainian troops were constrained by artillery shortages. These conditions allowed Russia to sustain offensive momentum, aiming westward and launching further attacks toward Pokrovsk during spring 2024, when aid was still delayed.

ISW assessed that between 6 December 2023, when the US aid pause began, and 24 April 2024, when it resumed, Russian troops advanced roughly three kilometers per day — especially in Donetsk Oblast.

In contrast, during the previous six months, Russia had lost around 203 square kilometers due to Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, which was heavily supported by US and allied military aid.

Why the pause happened: US reviews global commitments

Politico reported that the Trump administration made the decision in early June 2025 to hold off on certain deliveries, but the effect only became clear in early July. White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly confirmed on 1 July that the decision followed a Department of Defense review of US global military assistance. NBC, citing six defense and congressional officials, said the Pentagon ordered the pause while it reassessed stockpiles, and that the delay could be extended if stock levels remain low or if US needs elsewhere take precedence.

Kyiv urges resumption of aid

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized on 2 July that timely delivery of allocated US defense aid remains critical, especially to bolster air defenses. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that delays would embolden Russia to continue its war and avoid negotiating peace. Ukrainian diplomats noted ongoing talks with Washington to find a path forward that supports Ukraine’s defense needs.

In Gideon Rachman’s opinion piece for the Financial Times, the columnist argues that while both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are approaching exhaustion, Ukraine’s position is more precarious, and the country could face military collapse within six months unless it receives urgent military support.

Diplomatic optics improve, but battlefield outlook darkens

The article opens with a nod to the recent NATO summit, where European leaders expressed relief after President Donald Trump’s participation went more smoothly than feared. Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy helped repair tensions following their strained February exchange, and NATO members pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Yet, the author notes, diplomatic optics from the summit cannot disguise the grim reality on the battlefield. NATO’s commitment to deterrence and increased spending may not be enough to prevent Ukraine’s collapse if material support does not arrive quickly.

Ukraine running out of men, ammo—and time

According to FT, both militaries are nearing exhaustion, but Russia’s larger population gives it an edge in sustaining operations for another year. In contrast, Ukraine could reach a breaking point within six months unless it receives substantial new Western aid. Even the possibility of new Patriot systems and HIMARS artillery rockets from the US remains uncertain, as Trump remained vague about future weapons deliveries.

Importantly, troop numbers cannot be fixed by foreign allies. Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties, and its manpower reserves are dwindling.

Rachman suggests that escalating Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and other cities are not only inflicting physical damage but also damaging Ukrainian morale. That shift is reportedly evident in private appeals by Ukrainian officials for a ceasefire. Once considered defeatist, such calls are now increasingly urgent behind closed doors, the author writes.

Some optimism remains—but the clock is ticking

According to the author, some Western officials privately warn of a risk of “catastrophic failure” if Ukraine’s military is stretched past its limits and does not receive a significant surge in aid.

Despite the grim tone, Rachman notes that some analysts believe Ukraine can still hold out. These optimists argue that Russia has gained only 0.25% of Ukrainian territory in the past year, while Ukraine’s drone warfare has effectively prevented large-scale Russian advances. Others suggest that even if Russia breaches Ukrainian lines, it lacks the mechanized divisions to exploit the gains.

Still, as Rachman concludes, if the growing pessimism is justified, then the NATO summit’s feel-good atmosphere may soon fade. Even the alliance’s ever-smiling Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, may find it hard to keep smiling by year’s end.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has called on US President Donald Trump and NATO allies to apply the same level of determination shown in securing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran to bring a truce in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. 

Speaking at a press briefing on 25 June following the NATO summit in The Hague, Meloni stated:

“I told President Donald Trump and the summit that ‘the same determination’ used in the war between Israel and Iran ‘must also be used for two other ceasefires, for Ukraine and for Gaza. The situation in Gaza is unsustainable’,” she said, as reported by La Repubblica.

On 24 June, Trump claimed that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel had taken effect following US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

As the only EU head of government to attend Trump’s 2025 inauguration and his closest mainstream European ally, Giorgia Meloni has previously positioned herself as a potential bridge between the United States and a divided European Union.

Explore further

Bloomberg: How NATO leaders are trying to save Ukraine — by flattering Trump

Backing NATO unity and defense boost

At the same summit, all 32 NATO members agreed to a significant defense spending goal—raising allocations to 5% of GDP by 2035. Meloni welcomed this move, calling it a clear sign of alliance unity. 

At the NATO summit in The Hague on 25 June, European leaders chose silence, flattery, and submission to avoid offending Donald Trump — a decision Bloomberg columnist Max Hastings believes was driven by one desperate objective: keeping US arms flowing to Ukraine.

Flattery as survival tactic

According to the Bloomberg piece, the entire summit revolved around not provoking Trump. The meeting “made little pretense of discussing global strategy,” Hastings writes, and was instead about “preventing the most impulsive and erratic US president in history from throwing NATO’s toys out of his pram.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte praised Trump’s “decisive action” in Iran and even sympathized with his “public use of four-letter language,” signaling the tone.

Every leader in the room, Hastings notes, played along — even as Trump claimed that recent US-Israeli strikes had set back Iran “by decades,” a statement none reportedly believed. Their silence wasn’t weakness, Hastings argues, but a calculated move to avoid triggering Trump’s unpredictable anger — because Ukraine’s survival may depend on it.

Zelenskyy’s lifeline in danger

Trump has already suspended arms deliveries to Ukraine once. Hastings warns he might do so again at any moment. Ukraine survives “only at his pleasure,” he states.

Russian forces are escalating ground offensives and intensifying attacks on cities. As air-defense systems deplete, Ukraine faces critical shortages. Hastings says Ukrainian morale could collapse if they lose the means to repel Russian terror strikes.

The problem, he explains, is that Europe can’t replace what the US provides. If Washington doesn’t act — if Trump cuts Ukraine off again — the consequences may be dire. 

European submission to an unpredictable partner

All NATO allies understand this. The Bloomberg piece describes the summit as a performance of submission — not to Russia, but to the United States. European nations, including Germany and the UK, are boosting defense spending and offering gestures of solidarity. Germany plans to spend €62.4 billion in 2025. Chancellor Friedrich Merz insisted in parliament:

“We are not doing that as a favor to the US and its president… because Russia is actively and aggressively endangering the security and freedom of the entire Euro-Atlantic area.”

A necessary humiliation

Despite their discomfort, no leader pushed back publicly. Hastings argues this silence may be shameful, but it is strategic.

“Those of us who don’t hold public office,” he writes, “seem to have a responsibility to be frank.”

In conclusion, Hastings believes Europe must continue this game of appeasement. It may cost dignity and self-respect. But if it helps Ukraine hold the line, he argues, it might be a price worth paying.

Russian occupiers in Mariupol plan to bring back the monument to the executioner. The Mariupol City Council reports that a so-called “initiative group of Mariupol youth from the LKSM RF organization” has launched a campaign to return the monument to Vladimir Lenin, ArmInform reports. 

The Russians claim that Mariupol is the “only large city” in the occupied territory without a statue of the leader.

They call this step a “restoration of justice” after the demolition of monuments to Soviet figures by the Ukrainian authorities.

The Lenin monument was dismantled at Freedom Square in Mariupol in 2014 during the wave of decommunization. By 2020, the square had been completely renovated: it became a modern public space with 25 metal doves—symbols of peace, freedom, and unity of all regions of Ukraine.

After the occupation of the city, the invaders began erecting monuments to killers — “heroes of the special military operation.” At the same time, they have repeatedly initiated the return of the monument to the “leader of the proletariat.”