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Ukrainian refugees boost Czech economy, but it won’t save pro-Ukraine government
Czech intelligence has confirmed what economists suspected: Ukrainian refugees are now contributing more to the Czech economy than they receive in government assistance, according to the Security Information Service’s (BIS) annual report for 2024.
The intelligence assessment reveals that Ukraine’s displaced population has successfully integrated into Czech society while their economic output has already exceeded government expenditures since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
This finding highlights a troubling pattern across Europe: even clear economic benefits from refugee contributions have failed to prevent political backlash, as Poland’s recent election of an anti-Ukrainian president demonstrates despite refugees generating 2.7% of Polish GDP. Czech Republic now faces similar risks with anti-Ukrainian parties leading 2025 election polls.
Czech success follows European pattern
The BIS reported that by end-2024, over 390,000 Ukrainian citizens held temporary protection status in the Czech Republic. The intelligence service documented their successful integration, noting “their economic contribution having already exceeded the volume of financial support and social benefits they have received from the Czech government since the beginning of the war.”
This fiscal turnaround happened faster than many expected. The Czech Labor Ministry estimated Ukrainian workers contributed up to 15 billion Czech crowns annually in taxes. Meanwhile, their presence helped solve chronic labor shortages across key sectors—services, healthcare, and social assistance.
People in Need tracked the numbers closely. By 2023, Ukrainian refugee support reached perfect balance: spending and revenues both hit approximately 22 billion crowns. The organization noted a clear trend: “while spending exceeded income in the year’s first half, income dominated in the second half.”
Political storm clouds gathering
But here’s the catch: positive economic data doesn’t guarantee political survival. Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s SPOLU coalition faces probable defeat in October 2025 parliamentary elections. Polls show ANO party crushing the competition with 35% support compared to SPOLU’s meager 19.5%.
What’s ANO’s position on Ukraine? Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has made it clear: the war is “not our war.” His party reportedly plans to kill the Czech munitions initiative that has supplied Ukraine with critical ammunition. ANO recently joined the “Patriots for Europe” faction alongside Viktor Orbán and Marine Le Pen—hardly Ukraine’s biggest fans.
The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party makes ANO look moderate. Polling at 12.5% and likely to partner with ANO, SPD’s Tomio Okamura calls for ending Czech military aid and starting peace talks with Russia. His party pushes “welfare-chauvinist” arguments—social benefits should go to Czech citizens, not refugees.
Security picture remains positive
Czech intelligence found no serious downsides to Ukrainian refugee presence. The BIS assessment noted refugees “have not had a negative impact on the crime rate in the Czech Republic.” No evidence emerged of Ukrainian involvement in illegal arms trafficking, though the service warned such activity could develop after the war ends.
Current numbers tell a success story: 75% of economically active Ukrainians have jobs, with 88% working legally. But there’s room for improvement. International Organization for Migration data shows massive underemployment—68% of female and 50% of male refugees work below their qualification levels.
The skills mismatch represents missed opportunities. People in Need calculated that a single mother earning minimum wage generates 7,600 crowns monthly for the state. But put her in a job matching her qualifications at 32,000 crowns? She’d contribute 15,555 crowns monthly instead.
European warning signs
Poland offers a stark warning about political sustainability. Despite Ukrainian refugees generating a stunning 2.7% of GDP—worth €16 billion—Polish support for helping Ukrainians crashed from 94% to 57%. The result: Karol Nawrocki won the presidency promising to cut refugee benefits.
The Czech Republic shows similar vulnerabilities. Interior Minister Vít Rakušan indicated that roughly 60% of refugees plan to stay permanently, suggesting successful long-term integration. Yet authorities are already exploring return facilitation centers, following Germany and Poland’s lead.
The intelligence assessment suggests refugee flows will remain stable unless “Ukrainian defense were to collapse and Russia made a significant breakthrough on the front line.” But political stability? That’s another question entirely.
Three years of war have created a dangerous template: economic evidence of refugee benefits gets overwhelmed by war fatigue and anti-immigrant sentiment. Czech Republic’s pro-Ukrainian government may soon learn that fiscal success doesn’t guarantee electoral survival.
