As the war grinds on, Ukraine needs hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that if the war continues into 2026, the country will lack $120 billion annually to finance defense and recovery. 

Half of this sum—$60 billion—comes from Ukraine’s budget, while another $60 billion must be secured from other sources, primarily Western partners.

The cost of war for Ukraine

“During the war, the cost of this conflict for one year amounts to $120 billion,” Zelenskyy stressed during a joint briefing with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola in Kyiv.

He added that Plan A is to end the war, while Plan B is to secure $120 billion in funding.

Daily expenses and reliance on partners

Earlier, Chief of the General Staff Andrii Hnatov noted that Ukraine spends about $172 million per day fighting Russia.

The country cannot sustain such costs with its own resources alone, making Western financial support critical, Novini.Live reports. 

Russia’s unwillingness to end the war

Despite phone calls from US President Donald Trump to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his invitation to a summit in Alaska, Russia shows no intention of halting its aggression.

This underscores the need for Ukraine to secure stable and predictable funding for the coming year.

Previously, Reuters reported that Poland, under an EU program, will receive €43.7 billion to strengthen its defense capabilities within the Security Action for Europe initiative. At the same time, Ukraine is sometimes attacked by up to 700 drones in a single night.

Children living under constant threat are finally safe. Ukraine’s humanitarian program, Bring Kids Back UA, has evacuated 16 children from Russian-occupied territories.

They are now in Ukraine, receiving psychological support, restoring documents, and taking their first steps toward a peaceful life, according to Andrii Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office.

The program, initiated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2023, aims to return all Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. To date, 19,546 children have been stolen.

Tragedies endured by the children

Among the rescued is a 15-year-old girl who escaped occupation with her aunt after her parents and older brother were sentenced on fabricated charges. Two sisters, aged 14 and 7, lost their home and belongings in a fire that completely destroyed their house.

Another 15-year-old girl stayed indoors for nearly three years, living in fear of the occupiers taking her children. A 10-year-old boy was targeted by the occupation’s “care service,” which tried to seize him from his parents.

Returning to safety and a new life

“All of them are now safe in Ukraine. Due to the Save Ukraine team and partners for helping rescue these children. We are fulfilling the President’s mission to bring all Ukrainian children home,” said Yermak.

Russian indoctrination in occupied areas

Earlier, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported that in Russian-occupied Donetsk, schools have been holding so-called “patriotism lessons” since autumn.

According to Denis Pushilin, the head of the occupation administration, Russian soldiers teach children about their “combat path,” instilling a war cult, erasing Ukrainian identity, and preparing them for future Kremlin military campaigns.

The Ukrainian partisan movement “ATESH” dealt a major blow to the Russian army’s rear lines. The underground group has carried out sabotage on a railway near Yekaterinburg, roughly 2,087 km from Ukraine, completely paralyzing the movement of trains along Russia’s strategic routes.

This hub supplied ammunition, armored vehicles, fuel, and personnel to the frontlines, factories, and depots in the north and east.

“Now, military depots are idle, dealing a blow to the Russian rear logistics,” says the group. 

Strikes at the heart of Russia’s war machine

“Our agent sabotaged the railway near Yekaterinburg by damaging relay equipment. This disrupted train traffic across all strategic directions,” the movement reports.  

Scope of destruction in the Ukrainian infrastructure

At the same time, Russia’s war against Ukraine has damaged or destroyed nearly 11,000 km of railway tracks and over 43 stations.

As of 2025, the direct infrastructure losses in Ukraine are estimated at around $170 billion, with transportation alone accounting for roughly $38.5 billion. 

Russia has suffered catastrophic losses and can no longer launch major offensives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that after the summer offensive campaign, Russian forces no longer have the resources for large-scale attacks, UNIAN reports. 

Four Russian offensive directions

“Russia selected four main directions according to all documents and intelligence data. We only didn’t know the sequence, but it happened:

• The offensive in the Sumy direction
• the Novopavlivka operation,
• the Pokrovsk operation,
• the Zaporizhzhia direction,” Zelenskyy explains.

Failure in Sumy and heavy losses

Russian forces were defeated in the Sumy direction and had to redeploy to other fronts.

“They suffered heavy losses, primarily personnel. Today, they have abandoned this direction and shifted their resources and troops elsewhere. I believe they incurred even more losses there,” Zelenskyy says.

No more large-scale offensives

Thanks to the successful actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops have lost enough personnel to prevent them from conducting major offensives.

“At this point, they do not have sufficient forces for mass operations,” Zelenskyy stresses, noting that details of the losses will be published in the coming days.

Ukrainian Nemesis operators destroyed three high-value Russian air defense systems in a month. The fighters, part of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), reported on the successful operation via social media, emphasizing that innovative technologies were used to strike the targets. 

Destroyed systems and their value

“We burned three enemy air defense installations worth $80–90 million,” the statement reads. 

In August, the 412th Nemesis Regiment’s soldiers took down two Tor-M2 SAM systems, a Buk-M3 launcher, and the radar of a Buk-M2 system, which is known as “chupa-chups.” 

Tor-M2 and Buk: capabilities

Tor-M2 is a Russian short-range surface-to-air missile system designed to protect military and strategic targets from aircraft, helicopters, drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles.

Its engagement range is 12–15 km, altitude up to 10 km, and targets moving at speeds up to 1,000 m/s. The system carries 16 9M338K missiles and can simultaneously engage four targets out of over 40 detected.

The Buk is also a Russian medium-range SAM system capable of destroying aerodynamic aerial targets, tactical ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.

Innovations and secret SBS technologies

“The enemy changes tactics, tries to stop us, hides but in vain. Our retaliation always reaches its target,” the defenders noted.

They added that the strike footage remains unpublished to protect their innovative solutions, but promised to release it in the future.

A Kenyan athlete ended up in Ukrainian captivity after fighting on behalf of Russia. Ukrainian soldiers from the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade captured Evans on the frontlines, where he had been serving with Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast.

The athlete ended up in a Russian military camp under the guise of a “tourist trip” organized by his agent and funded by Russia, after which he was forced to sign documents in Russian and join the military.

When he realized what was happening, he tried to refuse but was threatened with execution. Nevertheless, Evans escaped and surrendered to Ukrainian forces.

How the athlete became a Russian soldier

“Evans is a track and field athlete from Kenya. His sports agent offered him and three other Kenyans a tourist trip to Saint Petersburg, funded by Russia,” reports the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade named after Kostyantyn Hordiyenko.

At the end of the trip, the person accompanying the group suggested that the foreigners stay in Russia and take up work.

“By signing papers in Russian, without understanding them, he unwittingly became a Russian soldier,” adds the brigade.

Harsh training and threats of execution

“Training lasted a week, during which the Kenyan was taught how to handle an automatic rifle. His commanders and instructors did not speak English, so they would often pull or push him to make him follow orders,” Ukrainian troops said.

Evans tried to refuse service but was told he would be executed if he did not comply.

Escape and captivity

“On the way to his first combat mission, Evans escaped. He spent two days wandering through forests near Vovchansk, searching for Ukrainian soldiers to surrender to,” said the 57th Brigade.

This is how the athlete ended up safe in Ukrainian hands, becoming a direct witness to the realities on the frontline.

Skeptical note from the brigade

However, the brigade remains cautious.

“Keep in mind, this is a person who fought on the side of the enemy, so whether to trust his words and tears is left to your discretion,” the brigade states. 

Ukraine confronts one of the world’s most severe demographic crises as its fertility rate plummets to 0.8 children per woman—among the lowest globally—while deaths exceed births by nearly three to one, according to government statistics and demographic experts.

As Ukraine fights for survival, it simultaneously grapples with a shrinking population that undermines long-term military capacity, economic reconstruction, and social stability.

The crisis reflects broader European demographic trends accelerated by war, poverty, and uncertainty—factors increasingly relevant to Western nations facing population decline.

Government response meets expert skepticism

Ukraine just raised baby bonuses from 41,280 hryvnias ($1,001) to 50,000 hryvnias ($1,220), paid as a lump sum rather than monthly installments. Additional measures include 7,000 ($170) hryvnia monthly payments for unemployed pregnant women and expanded childcare support.

“One should not count on a significant increase in birth rates due to increased social payments for children,” says Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher at the Center for Economic Strategy, noting that increased payments in 2005 and the “Baby Package” program in 2018 did not cause significant changes in birth rates.

The current payment also has much less purchasing power than the previously tried support mechanisms had. According to the media outlet Hromadske, in 2008, Ukraine paid $2,520 for the first child, $5,155 for the second, and $10,310 for the third and subsequent children.

Today’s 50,000 hryvnia payment equals only $1,220, regardless of birth order.

The math behind Ukraine’s disappearing future

Ukraine’s population has contracted from 52 million at independence in 1991 to approximately 30-35 million today. But that’s not the scary part.

The fertility crisis compounds multiple demographic pressures. Euromaidan Press report from February 2025 shows 495,000 deaths versus 176,600 births in 2024, with some frontline oblasts experiencing death-to-birth ratios exceeding 10-to-1.

Meanwhile, 5.7 million Ukrainians live abroad as refugees, according to UN estimates, with up to 800,000 being women of childbearing age. Only 40% of emigrants express certainty about returning, the UN reports.

Strategic implications for Ukraine’s future

The demographic crisis creates cascading strategic vulnerabilities that threaten Ukraine’s long-term viability:

War, economic misery, and housing costs create conditions that could affect other nations during future crises.

Why money can’t fix the baby problem

Ask a young couple in Kyiv about having children, and they’ll show you their rent receipt. A cashier spends 83% of their income on rent alone. A cook uses 57% of earnings just for housing. A barista dedicates 78% of their salary to keeping a roof overhead.

And if young people “don’t understand what tomorrow will bring, then what kind of children can we talk about?” asks Vasyl Voskoboynik, head of Ukraine’s Office of Migration Policy.

The housing crisis creates impossible mathematics. When working full-time barely covers rent, saving for a larger apartment to accommodate children becomes a fantasy. This explains why 21% of potential parents plan to have children only after the war ends—not because of physical danger but because of economic impossibility.

Having children increasingly becomes a lifestyle choice among many rather than a social expectation. Life offers alternatives—career advancement, travel, personal fulfillment—that compete with parenthood in ways previous generations never experienced.

War adds another layer of uncertainty. Even couples who planned children before February 2022 now delay decisions indefinitely. The stress, family separation, and unpredictable future create psychological barriers that 50,000 hryvnia cannot overcome.

What Ukraine teaches the West

Ukraine’s trajectory offers uncomfortable lessons for Western democracies managing their own fertility decline.

Population Europe’s research confirms that there is “no realistic prospect within the foreseeable future of the EU returning to total fertility rates of around 2 from today’s 1.5.”

The war reveals how quickly a manageable demographic decline transforms into an existential crisis. External shocks—economic collapse, social instability, military conflict—can accelerate trends that typically unfold over generations. Under the right combination of pressures, today’s gradual decline in the European population can lead to tomorrow’s rapid collapse.

This creates strategic vulnerabilities that neighbors with ill intent notice. Aging populations struggle to field large militaries, support innovation economies, or maintain social cohesion during crises. Russia itself faces severe demographic challenges, but Ukraine’s crisis demonstrates how quickly declining nations can become targets.

But the population numbers tell only half the story. As Ukraine fights for survival on military and demographic fronts simultaneously, Western democracies must consider whether their aging societies can withstand similar pressures while confronting expanding authoritarian threats facing comparable demographic stress.

On 17 September, Kyiv ratified the century-long partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The document was approved by 295 out of 397 Ukrainian deputies.

The agreement creates a new long-term framework

The agreement establishes a new long-term framework for bilateral cooperation in security, defense, economy, science, technology, and culture, opening new opportunities to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Significant boost in military support

The document provides for annual military assistance from the UK to Ukraine of at least £3.6 billion until the 2030/31 financial year, and thereafter as needed.

This includes training Ukrainian troops, supporting pilots, supplying military aviation, developing joint defense production, and participating in joint expeditionary formats such as the Joint Expeditionary Force.

Framework nature and strategic significance

“Despite its grand title and good intentions, this agreement, unfortunately, does not provide security guarantees and is of a framework nature. Nevertheless, it is an important document aimed at strengthening strategic partnership with the UK,” said MP Iryna Herashchenko of the European Solidarity party.

New horizons of cooperation

Beyond the military sphere, the agreement opens prospects for scientific and technological projects, economic partnership, and cultural exchange, cementing Ukraine and the UK as strategic allies for decades to come.

The Pentagon confirmed on 16 September that American military officials observed the “Zapad-2025” joint exercises between Russia and Belarus, marking the first such attendance since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Two US defense attachés attended the “Zapad-2025” drills on 15 September as part of a distinguished visitor program, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated, Reuters reports. The last time this happened in 2021 before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The US embassy in Minsk had received an invitation to the exercises, which the American side accepted following what Parnell described as “recent productive bilateral engagements between our countries.”

“Attending exercise DV days is a common practice between militaries, and the US Defense Attache is part of a larger group of international military attendees,” Parnell said.

US relations with Belarus 

The military engagement represents part of broader diplomatic developments between Washington and Minsk under the Trump administration. Last week, Trump lifted sanctions on Belarus national airline Belavia after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko agreed to release 52 prisoners, including journalists and political opponents.

Western analysts view the warming ties as either an attempt to distance Belarus from Russia or to leverage Minsk’s close relationship with Moscow in potential Ukraine war negotiations, though such strategies are considered unlikely to succeed.

Belarus “surprised” by US visit

Reuters identified one of the American officers as Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Shoupe. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin personally greeted the US officials, with the officers speaking Russian and thanking him for the invitation.

According to Reuters, Khrenin called the American visit a “surprise” and told the officers: “We will show you everything that interests you. Whatever you want. You can go there and look, talk to people.”

Exercises trigger caution from neighboring NATO countries

Previously, Belarus reported that its forces trained with Russia’s Oreshnik nuclear ballistic missile system during the Zapad 2025 exercises, marking the first known training with the weapon outside Russia. This hypersonic missile system was first used by Russia against Ukraine in November 2024.

The military exercises also triggered security measures across the region. Poland closed its border with Belarus entirely on 11 September, with officials indicating the closure would not automatically end with the exercises’ conclusion.

Last week, Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace from Belarus territory, prompting the Polish forces to shoot them down.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia and Belarus are conducting six “Zapad-2025” military exercises this fall that simulate attacks on Poland rather than defensive operations.

Latvia’s parliament also voted to seal borders with both Russia and Belarus during the maneuvers, while Finland warned that Russia’s military activities could take “unexpected turns.”

The Brave1-developed drones can target forward bases, supply lines, and infrastructure deep behind enemy lines, forcing adversaries to reconsider defensive strategies and highlighting the growing importance of locally developed, rapidly deployable UAV technology.

This signals a potential shift in modern conflict dynamics: NATO and allied forces may need to account for cost-effective drones capable of precision strikes far beyond front lines, influencing procurement decisions and future air-defense planning worldwide. The deployment of scalable, resistant drones in Ukraine demonstrates how conflict zones can accelerate innovation that could reshape future military doctrines globally.

Brave1, a Ukrainian defense cluster, coordinated the trials with military units and manufacturers to ensure the drones are effective and ready for operational use. The cluster also supports financing, logistics, and technical assistance, and plans grants to expand domestic production of explosive components to secure supply chains.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation reported that the final trials tested drones with warheads and countermeasures against electronic warfare. Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said:

Thanks to Brave1’s support and military feedback, manufacturers achieved the technological maturity needed to begin combat trials.

While 40–50 km strike drones also exist elsewhere, Ukraine’s combination of rapid development, mass production potential, and electronic warfare resilience makes these UAVs particularly relevant in ongoing and future conflicts.
The deep strike drones are now being prepared for combat testing. These field trials will determine operational deployment, marking the next stage in integrating locally produced UAVs into frontline tactics.

The Trump administration has approved weapons aid packages for Ukraine worth up to $1 billion, with NATO allies paying for American arms shipments to Kyiv rather than the United States funding the assistance directly.

Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby approved up to two $500 million shipments under a mechanism called the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.

The renewed transatlantic cooperation aims to provide Ukraine with up to $10 billion worth of weapons.

The sources declined to provide a complete inventory of approved items but confirmed the packages include air defense systems. Ukraine requires these systems urgently given a huge increase in Russian drone and missile attacks.

“It’s the stuff they’ve been asking for. A lot of stuff,” one source told the news agency, adding that the flow has allowed Ukraine to “stabilize the lines thus far.”

What is PURL?

Trump announced the initiative on 14 July, confirming the United States would provide Ukraine with weapons worth “billions of dollars” that European NATO allies would purchase and distribute. The president specifically mentioned preparing up to 17 Patriot air defense systems for shipment to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described Trump’s decision as “quite logical” and said Trump called him on 10 July to explain that Ukraine should receive “everything necessary for self-defense,” but that Europeans should finance the assistance.

By 31 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that seven countries had supported the PURL initiative, with total commitments reaching $2 billion. Defense experts indicate Ukraine’s requirements remain consistent with previous months, focusing on air defenses, interceptors, missile systems, rockets, and artillery.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces have received a fresh delivery of Patria 6×6 armored personnel carriers manufactured in Latvia, according to Latvia’s Ministry of Defense. The shipment included additional equipment for Ukrainian military personnel.

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds emphasized his country’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s fight for independence.

“Latvia continues to support Ukraine in its struggle for independence and will do so for as long as necessary,” Spruds said, highlighting that the Patria armored vehicles will enhance Ukraine’s capabilities against Russian aggression.

The Latvian Defense Ministry noted the strategic value of the deployment: “In the hands of Ukrainian defenders, these Patria 6×6 armored personnel carriers will be used in the most difficult combat conditions. This will also allow us to gain valuable experience to strengthen Latvia’s defense.”

Latvia responded to Ukraine’s request in February this year by ordering the Patria 6×6 armored personnel carriers specifically for Ukrainian forces. Riga plans to deliver 42 such vehicles to Kyiv, along with additional military equipment, according to the Defense Ministry.

The delivery forms part of a broader international cooperation framework. Finland, Latvia, Sweden, and Germany signed a joint agreement on 30 August 2021, for the procurement of Patria 6×6 armored vehicles under an intergovernmental program. The agreement covers orders for more than 200 units.

Previous reports indicate that the first vehicles from Latvia were already delivered to Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces.

The Patria 6×6 armored personnel carrier represents a modern multi-purpose combat vehicle developed by Finnish company Patria. The vehicle is designed for personnel transport and combat operations at the front line.

According to specifications, the armor meets STANAG 4569 standards and protects crew members from small arms fire, artillery shell fragments, and mine explosions. The vehicle’s powerful engine and independent wheel suspension enable it to traverse difficult terrain and water obstacles while reaching speeds up to 100 km/h on roads. The operational range extends to 700 kilometers without refueling.

Alex Babich, a 47-year-old Ukrainian immigrant, has set a Guinness World Record by growing a sunflower that reached 35 feet and 9 inches in his Fort Wayne, Indiana backyard.

The flower, nicknamed “Clover,” was officially measured and confirmed as the world’s tallest sunflower on 3 September, according to Guinness World Records.

The record-breaking sunflower surpassed the previous world record holder in Germany by 5 feet. Babich grew Ukraine’s national flower as a tribute to his homeland, which has been devastated by Russia’s invasion since 2022.

“I’m going to die someday, but the stories of this flower will live on,” Babich said. “My kids will be telling this story to the grandkids.”

Babich, who works as a landscape gardener, seed seller, and outdoor gear designer, immigrated to the United States at age 14 following the Chernobyl disaster. He began growing sunflowers seven years ago as a symbol of love for his home country.

The sunflower earned its nickname from Babich’s 10-year-old son, who would climb scaffolding around the plant and place four-leaf clovers on its leaves for good luck. Babich described the plant with paternal affection: “It’s one of my kids. You’re out there every day taking care of it.”

The official measurement drew a crowd of approximately 85 people, including master gardeners from a local university and representatives from the Allen County Department of Weights and Measures. A 40-foot cherry picker was used to measure the towering plant while Babich spoke by phone with Guinness World Records representatives and camera crews documented the event.

Babich’s first attempt at growing giant sunflowers seven years ago produced a 13-foot-tall plant. The current world record flower represents years of experimentation. “The record-breaking flower was the result of trial and error over the years,” Babich said.

His motivation for growing sunflowers intensified after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “We just pray that the war will end, that the killing will stop,” Babich said. “We just hope this inspires some people in the right places. It’s been long enough.”

The achievement will be featured in a documentary titled “Bloom,” scheduled for release this summer. For Babich, who describes himself as someone who grows giants, the record represents a personal milestone: “It’s very emotional. It’s as good as it gets for someone who grows giants.”

On the night of 17 September, Russia conducted another overnight attack on Ukraine using drones and missiles, targeting infrastructure facilities across multiple regions and causing power outages, railway disruptions, and property damage.

Ukrainian Air Forces reported that the attack involved an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, an S-300 surface-to-air guided missile, and 172 strike drones including Shahed and Gerbera types.

Ukrainian air defense systems successfully intercepted 136 of the incoming targets, while military officials recorded impacts from missiles and 36 drones at 13 locations across the country’s north, south, and east.

Railway infrastructure targeted

The strikes caused significant disruption to railway operations, with Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukrainian major railway company, reporting that Russian forces conducted a comprehensive attack on electrical substations.

This resulted in delays for passenger trains on Odesa and Dnipro routes, with some services following altered paths and others halted at safe distances from impact zones.

Civilians in Kirovohrad Oblast lose electricity due to Russian attack

Kirovohrad Oblast in central Ukraine experienced what officials described as a massive drone attack targeting infrastructure. The regional center and 44 settlements in Oleksandrivka community had lost partial electricity supply, according to the regional military administration head Andriy Raikovych.

The attacks damaged several private residences in Oleksandrivka and sparked fires that required overnight firefighting efforts involving more than 60 rescuers and 14 fire trucks.

Train delayed after Russian strikes on Cherkasy Oblast

Cherkasy Oblast in central Ukraine also came under drone attack, with regional military administration chief Ihor Taburets confirming damage to critical infrastructure.

Taburets added that regional defenders neutralized 11 Russian drones during the assault. The infrastructure damage led to additional passenger train cancellations and delays for routes passing through the region.

Emergency services across affected regions worked through the night to extinguish fires and restore services, with officials reporting no casualties from the overnight strikes.

Exclusives

Bloomberg thinks Putin finally went too far (he didn’t). Bloomberg asks if Putin finally went too far—we examine why it’s likely more of the same.

BBC: Ukrainian civilian freed after years in Russian captivity — his story is one of beatings, starvation, and survival. Journalist Dmytro Khyliuk spent three and a half years in captivity without charges before finally returning home in a rare swap.

Ukraine asks West to fund half its government as defense spending hits record 27% of GDP. $10 billion gap tests whether Western taxpayers can sustain Ukraine’s unprecedented military mobilization through 2026.

Ukrainian troops are on the attack in Sumy—and advancing. Moscow stripped troops from Sumy to double down on its attack in Donetsk. For Kyiv, that was an opportunity.

A study by the Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) at Yale University’s School of Public Health has identified 210 facilities in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories where children abducted from Ukraine are held and “re-educated.” The report also found evidence that some children are being militarized.

“Russia has been engaged in the deportation, re-education, militarization, and coerced fostering and adoption of children from Ukraine since at least 2014 in the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, these efforts significantly expanded in scale and scope. Cohorts of children were rapidly included in the Russian Federation’s pre-existing program of Russification from newly occupied regions such as Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol.” – the report reads.

210 “re-education” facilities for Ukrainian children

The majority of the facilities identified in the report are located in European Russia and occupied Crimea.

Children are being held in camps and sanatoriums (most frequently), as well as cadet schools, a military base, medical facilities, a religious site, secondary schools and universities, a hotel, and family support centers and orphanages.

Researchers found that re-education activities occurred at 130 sites (62%), involving cultural, patriotic, or military programming aligned with pro-Russia narratives.

Militarization programs were observed at 39 sites (19%), and 49 sites (23%) have been expanded or newly constructed, including two new cadet schools, likely to accommodate more children.

More than half of the facilities (106 of 210) are managed by the Russian federal or local government, including 55% of re-education sites and 58% of militarization sites.

Children in these facilities fall into four main groups:

• children taken to summer camps for what was intended to be temporary “re-education” by pro-Russian patriotic organizations;
• children taken from Ukrainian orphanages and other institutions for children, and/or children with physical disabilities;
• children forcibly separated from parents in frontline areas after the 2022 invasion; and
• children taken directly from their parents in Russian-operated filtration camps in and around Mariupol in 2022 when the city was first occupied.

The report urges international organizations and governments to support the return and reintegration of Ukrainian children, hold perpetrators accountable, and strengthen protections to prevent such abuses in the future.

“The impact of the alleged crimes perpetuated by the Russian government are likely to leave generational scars,” the report concludes.

Russia’s history of abducting Ukrainian children

The systematic abduction of Ukrainian children has accelerated since Russia’s 2022 invasion, building on practices begun in 2014 in occupied Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.

Over 3,000 children from occupied Kherson Oblast were taken to remote Russian regions during summer 2024 alone. Separate documentation identified 40,000 children relocated to various Russian locations including Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and facilities as far as 8,000 kilometers from Ukraine. 

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants in March 2023 for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova on charges of illegal child deportation.

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) published a detailed analysis of Russia’s new turbojet attack drone, the Geran-3 “U” series, showing it relies heavily on foreign components. The drone, a localized version of the Iranian Shahed-238, incorporates parts from the US, China, Switzerland, Germany, Britain, and Japan.

Despite Western sanctions, Russia continues to acquire foreign technology for its weapons programs. Moscow remains able to develop and produce advanced weapons systems for its war against Ukraine.

In total, 45 foreign components were identified in the new Russian Geran-3 drone: 

• roughly half from American manufacturers;
• eight from China;
• seven from Switzerland;
• three from Germany;
• two from Britain, and 
• one from Japan. 

The Russian Geran-3 drone

HUR reports that the drone can operate at ranges up to 1000 km, and can reach speeds of 300-370 km/h, powered by a Chinese Telefly JT80 turbojet engine.

It can reach its top speed in areas covered by Ukrainian air defenses, electronic warfare systems, and drone interception zones, and during the terminal stage of its flight descending towards a target. 

To maintain satellite navigation in contested areas, the Geran-3 also features a jam-resistant navigation system with a 12-element adaptive antenna array known as Kometa-M12.

The drone’s internal layout closely mirrors that of the gasoline-powered Geran-2, including a standard inertial navigation system, air pressure measurement unit, and power distribution unit. The drone also uses cameras and video systems adapted from earlier Geran-2 models.

Russia’s Geran drone is a locally made version of the Iranian Shahed drone, supplied by Iran and used against Ukraine. Moscow is producing its own variants and gradually improving their design and capabilities.

Russia uses these drones to carry out long-range attacks on Ukrainian targets, including civilian areas and critical infrastructure.

HUR published the findings as part of its “Means of Destruction” series, which now catalogs over 5,000 foreign components in 177 weapons systems used by Russia and its allies. The Geran-3 is the eighth Russian weapon system to be detailed in the series.

Russia carried out a large-scale overnight assault on Ukraine on 16 September, striking the eastern city of Zaporizhzhia with multiple rocket salvos.

The strikes killed two people and injured 20 others, including four children. The attack also caused widespread destruction to residential areas, according to regional and national officials.

Zaporizhzhia, a major city in southeastern Ukraine, has been a frequent target of Russian strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The city lies close to the front line and just north of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest.

Though never captured, Zaporizhzhia has endured repeated barrages of missiles, drones, and artillery that have destroyed residential neighborhoods, energy facilities, and infrastructure. The region has become a symbol of both Ukraine’s resilience and the ongoing vulnerability of civilian areas to Russia’s campaign of aerial terror.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported that around midnight Russian forces launched ten Tornado-S multiple rocket system rounds at Zaporizhzhia. The strikes hit private homes and non-residential buildings, sparking fires across several neighborhoods.

“They struck deliberately to terrorize our people,” said Ivan Fedorov, head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.

Russian “aerial terror” overnight

The strike on Zaporizhzhia was part of a wider wave of Russian attacks on early 16 September. According to Ukrainian officials, more than 100 drones and 150 guided aerial bombs were used against multiple regions, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson.

In Mykolaiv Oblast, a strike on a farm killed one civilian.

Since the beginning of September, Russia has fired more than 3500 drones, nearly 190 missiles, and over 2500 aerial bombs against Ukraine. Fedorov described these attacks as “aerial terror.”

“Now is the time to implement the joint protection of our European sky with a multilayered air defense system. All the necessary technologies exist. What is needed are investments and the will, strong actions, and decisions from all our partners,” he added.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko urged the world to respond by strengthening sanctions against Russia and providing Ukraine with more air defenses to protect cities and people.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has linked the potential end of Russia’s war in Ukraine to European action against countries purchasing Russian oil.

Speaking in a joint interview with Reuters and Bloomberg on 15 September, Bessent said the conflict could conclude within 60 to 90 days if European nations imposed substantial secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers because it would eliminate Moscow’s primary revenue source.

Bessent also stated that the Trump administration will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to halt China’s Russian oil purchases unless European countries implement steep duties on China and India.

“We expect the Europeans to do their share now, and we are not moving forward without the Europeans,” he said.

Bessent’s comments follow President Donald Trump’s decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports.

During talks with Chinese officials in Madrid focusing on trade and TikTok, Bessent said he informed them that the US had already imposed tariffs on Indian goods and that Trump has been urging European countries to impose tariffs of 50% to 100% on China and India. 

The treasury secretary criticized European countries for continuing to purchase Russian oil directly or buying petroleum products refined in India from discounted Russian crude. 

The treasury chief outlined next steps: stronger sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, plus expanded use of the $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets. Small seizures could start immediately, or the funds could serve as collateral for Ukrainian loans.

Meanwhile, Ukraine took matters into its own hands. Drone strikes in August eliminated four major Russian refineries, wiping out one-seventh of the country’s refining capacity. Gasoline prices surged 40-50% since January. Ukrainian forces also severed the Druzba pipeline, Russia’s main oil export route to Europe, cutting supplies to Hungary and Slovakia.

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Fighters from the “Steel Border” brigade are sharing their experience in countering the enemy’s use of fiber-optic FPV drones. According to them, such devices are less vulnerable to electronic warfare systems but are at the same time heavier and less maneuverable, which gives Ukrainian troops certain tactical advantages.

They are used for reconnaissance and precision strikes, posing a serious threat to Ukrainian infantry and armored vehicles. This makes developing effective countermeasures a vital part of Ukraine’s defense effort.

The commander of an intelligence unit with the callsign Veduchyi, serving in the reconnaissance Askold detachment, explained:

UAV operations are a coordinated team effort, where the speed of information exchange and coordination save lives. Border guards said they employ various methods to neutralize fiber-optic copters; sometimes simple tools or accurate fire are enough to disable the device. The report even mentions a case where a drone was destroyed after its fiber cable was cut with scissors.

They also emphasized the difference between mass-produced Russian drones, which come with fixed reels and built-in cameras, and Ukrainian drones, which are modular and can be adapted for specific missions. Because of these differences, Ukrainian units adjust their tactics for using UAVs in urban areas and during clearance operations.

An example from the 225th Separate Assault Regiment describes a method where a fiber-optic FPV drone flies ahead of the infantry to check buildings, significantly reducing risks for assault groups: if the enemy is detected, the drone marks the target and the infantry advance along a safer route. Commanders describe this approach as both safer and more effective in urban combat.

Russian forces struck an educational facility in Kharkiv’s Slobidskyi district with a drone on Tuesday morning, hitting the roof of the building and injuring several people, according to Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov and emergency services.

The State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported that “Russian forces struck an educational facility in the Slobidskyi district of the city with a UAV in the morning. About 2 women were injured. As a result of the hit, the roof of the facility building was damaged, and a fire broke out over an area of 150 square meters.”

Mayor Terekhov reported 4 people injured in the attack. The prosecutor’s office released video footage capturing the moment of impact on the educational facility.

“It was a strike drone. In the video it might seem like it’s not a drone, but that’s just the angle. A UAV, if you look at it from the side, is not wide but rather flat. Plus there are collected fragments. According to preliminary data, these are parts of a ‘Geran-2’ type drone,” said Valeriia Chirina, spokesperson for the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office, in comments to Ukrainska Pravda.

According to Suspilne media, the Russians struck the administrative building of the Pharmaceutical University. Vice-rector for scientific and pedagogical work Oleksandra Kukhtenko said that employees who were inside the building went down to shelter during the air raid alert, so they were not wounded.

An analysis of over 100 Russian propaganda telegram channels revealed coordinated efforts to exploit the assassination of former Ukrainian parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy, with identical narratives appearing across pro-Russian social media accounts commenting on Ukrainian YouTube videos, according to research by Texty.org.ua.

The study identified 380 messages about Parubiy’s murder across Russian propaganda channels, with 231 publications containing “insults, joy, propaganda clichés, and fakes,” while 149 provided dry informational reports about the killing and investigation status.

Former Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) Andriy Parubiy was shot and killed in Lviv on 30 August. 

The 54-year-old politician served as Speaker of Ukraine’s parliament from April 2016 to August 2019 and played a key role during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution as Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council. 

Parubiy gained prominence during the 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests as commandant of the tent camp and head of self-defense detachments. During the February 2014 revolution, after the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Parubiy led forces that took control of the government quarter in Kyiv, including the Verkhovna Rada, Presidential Administration, Cabinet of Ministers, and Interior Ministry buildings.

Russian propaganda portrayal

For Russian propagandists, Parubiy embodied “everything bad in this world,” described as a “black politician, primary enemy of Russians in Ukraine, Maidan ideologue, [supporter of] all these wild slogans ‘hang the Moskals’.”

Russian channels labeled him an “ideological backbone of this terror formation,” “Maidan instigator,” “inciter of interethnic hatred,” and “one of the founding fathers of the Nazi regime.”

Maidan organizer narrative

Russian propaganda emphasized Parubiy’s role as “one of the main organizers of Euromaidan” and “Maidan commandant,” making him responsible for the “state coup in Ukraine.”

According to their narrative, Parubiy “brought snipers to Ukrainian Maidan in 2014,” with claims that “police and protesters at Maidan were shot from the philharmonic hall — Parubiy was responsible for the building.”

Odesa “organizer” claims

A recurring theme claimed Parubiy organized the 2 May 2014 Trade Unions House fire in Odesa: “He will remain as complicit in organizing the Odesa Khatyn and mass murders at Maidan.”

Russian channels alleged he attempted to cover up the “truth” by creating a journalist group codenamed “May 2”: “Under the guarantee of the ex-speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, they created a group of biased journalists under the unofficial name ‘Second of May.'”

War criminal accusations

Propaganda channels branded Parubiy a “war criminal” who “directly coordinated the use of the army against the civilian population of Donbas in 2014.”

They claimed “Parubiy repeatedly stated the need for forceful suppression of Donbas following the model of the Croatian operation ‘Storm.'”

Murder theories deflecting Russian involvement

Russian propagandists promoted multiple contradictory theories while denying Moscow’s involvement: “Russia was completely uninterested in Parubiy 11 years after Maidan. With such a motive, he should have been eliminated during Maidan.”

However, the lexicon suggested Russian involvement through terms like “liquidation,” “destruction,” and “denazification” rather than “murder”: “The liquidation of Andriy Parubiy became revenge against one of the direct perpetrators of the Odesa tragedy.”

One propaganda channel summarized the campaign: “Officially Russia will deny its involvement in the liquidation of the terrorist, unofficially ours are already congratulating each other.”

Political conspiracy theories

The primary target of blame was President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “This is not an investigation, but a pathetic setup. They framed a random person, called him a killer and closed the case. The real customers are at Bankova [presidential office].”

Propagandists suggested Zelenskyy planned to surrender Donbas to Russia, and nationalists like Parubiy would have started a revolt: “If Ze is forced to eventually sign some agreements on Russia’s terms, then the greatest danger for him is extreme nationalists and national battalions.”

YouTube comment analysis confirms narrative penetration

Analysis of nearly 8,000 comments on 10 Ukrainian YouTube videos about Parubiy’s death revealed widespread promotion of identical Russian narratives.

The most popular theories blamed the government, personally Zelenskyy, with 7.5% of comments (612) promoting this line: “That is, looking at the video, you can see that the murder was recorded with a camera with an operator… this government killed him,” wrote user @BorisShtatnov.

Another user, @AlexanderKizim, commented: “The government killed Mr. Andriy. Don’t look, because they won’t find the government.”

Six percent (485 comments) promoted internal political conflict theories, with @VitaliyUrban writing: “No, I think it’s not the Moskals. But this is the work of our hands. He knew a lot, and that’s why it happened.”

Coordinated disinformation campaign

The research concluded that Russian propaganda effectively transformed an individual’s death into “a multi-level theatrical story, where real motives disappear in the chaos of political and criminal versions,” demonstrating the propaganda machine’s ability to “act in coordination, create multiple alternative realities and manipulate the emotions of Ukrainians through tragedy.”

According to a new Bloomberg analysis, Donald Trump outlined specific conditions for imposing “major sanctions” on Russia. At the same time, the European Commission reportedly backs using Moscow’s $330 billion in frozen assets against it.

The latest announcements continue a three-year cycle of sanctions rhetoric that has left Ukraine dependent on unfulfilled pledges while Moscow adapts to leaky restrictions.

Since February 2022, Ukrainian officials and ordinary citizens have oscillated between hope and frustration as Western allies announce measures that either never materialize or prove insufficient to change Russia’s strategic calculations.

Trump’s conditional sanctions blueprint

Bloomberg columnist Marc Champion reported on 16 September that Trump posted conditions on Truth Social requiring all NATO members to end Russian oil consumption and join sanctions on China and India before the US would “ramp up sanctions on Moscow.”

This follows Trump’s pattern of shifting responsibility to European allies. Three days earlier, Euromaidan Press reported Trump writing that “major sanctions” would come only if NATO countries acted in concert—the exact framework Bloomberg now highlights as potentially significant.

Sanctioning China and India—Russia’s largest oil customers—would require economic disruption that Western allies have consistently avoided.

European asset seizure remains hypothetical

Bloomberg’s analysis suggests the European Commission has finally backed a mechanism to use Russia’s frozen central bank reserves by converting them to loans “repayable to Russia just as soon as it pays the reparations that a United Nations-appointed commission will inevitably find due.”

As Euromaidan Press documented already in May, Europe proved capable of seizing Russian assets when Western financial interests were at stake, redistributing €3 billion to compensate European investors—but not for Ukraine’s defense needs.

The vulnerability window Russia exploits

Bloomberg correctly identifies Russia’s economic vulnerabilities: 42% to 54% of defense spending occurs off-budget, corporate debt has surged 71% since the war began, and interest rates have reached 21%. Ukraine’s drone campaign has damaged Russian oil infrastructure, creating potential leverage points.

Moscow continues escalating despite financial constraints because sanctions loopholes still allow access to critical technology (even if at inflated prices), the military remains functional even as civilian sectors suffer, and Russia has adapted to operating a war economy where normal financial logic doesn’t apply.

Most critically, Russia plays for long-term exhaustion—not just of Ukrainian forces, but of Western political, moral, and economic resilience.

Ukraine’s dependence on unfulfilled promises

Bloomberg gets one more thing right—Ukraine depends on Western pressure that never really materializes. Recent Euromaidan Press coverage shows sanctions preparation without implementation, asset freezing without seizure, and conditional promises that require unlikely cooperation.

This, in turn, creates the psychological tension that Bloomberg misses: Ukrainian officials and citizens experience hope and anxiety with each new Western announcement, knowing that implementation depends on inconsistent political will.

Until sanctions are implemented rather than announced, Moscow has little reason to change course.

An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians maintain confidence in their country’s ability to achieve victory in the full-scale war against Russia, provided adequate Western support is sustained, according to a new survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The poll found that 76% of respondents believe Ukraine can win the war with proper backing from Western allies. This support encompasses strengthening existing sanctions against Russia and its partners, implementing new restrictive measures, and providing Ukraine with necessary financial and military assistance including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and aircraft.

Some 15% of surveyed Ukrainians consider victory impossible even under such conditions, while 9% of respondents could not determine their position on the matter.

KIIS researchers noted minimal change in Ukrainian confidence levels over the past year. The institute conducted similar surveys in December 2023 and September 2024, though those earlier polls asked about achieving success on the front rather than outright victory. In September, 81% of Ukrainians believed their country could achieve battlefield success, while 14% deemed this impossible even with proper Western support.

“One can reasonably assume that over the past year there has been no significant decline in belief in the possibility of victory, and at the same time, for a convincing majority, victory is possible – with proper support from the West (from which sending troops is not expected, but at least effective sanctions and sufficient provision of weapons are expected),” the survey conclusions state.

The findings contrast with international public opinion trends. According to KIIS data from 7 August, over three-quarters of Ukrainians categorically oppose Russia’s peace plan. However, as of 27 August, 53% of Germans believed Ukraine should cede territories to Russia to end the war. Meanwhile, 28 September polling data showed 46% of Americans consider US assistance to Ukraine insufficient, while 25% of respondents expressed the view that America is doing too much.

The survey underscores the persistent gap between Ukrainian resolve and varying levels of international support, with Ukrainian confidence in victory remaining largely stable despite ongoing challenges on multiple fronts.

Researchers at Yale University have identified at least 210 facilities across Russia and occupied territories where Russian authorities illegally transport Ukrainian children for “re-education,” according to a new report from the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (Yale HRL).

The study reveals the scope of what researchers describe as a systematic program operating since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. However, the actual number of facilities is likely higher, as Yale HRL continues investigating additional locations, according to the report.

The 210 identified facilities include military cadet schools, bases, medical institutions, religious sites, secondary schools, universities, hotels, family support centers, and orphanages. Most frequently, the locations are camps and sanatoriums, researchers found.

At least 130 of these facilities implemented “re-education” measures that include pro-Russian cultural, patriotic, or military programs, the study documents. Ukrainian children are forced to sing the Russian anthem, attend pro-Russian events, and participate in history and geopolitics lectures conducted entirely in Russian.

The report separately identifies 39 facilities where deported children undergo militarized programs that include combat training. While some organizations claim their programs target children aged 14 and older, Yale researchers note that participants appear to range from 8 to 17 years old.

Children in these military programs are forced to develop firearms and naval training skills, participate in shooting competitions and grenade throwing, and receive instruction in tactical medicine and drone operation, according to the findings.

Researchers documented one instance where children from Donetsk region underwent “airborne training” at a military base, transported there by aircraft belonging to the Russian presidential property management office.

The Russian government directly operates more than half of the documented locations, Yale University researchers emphasize. At least 106 facilities are managed by Russian federal or local government authorities.

The study builds on previous Yale HRL research that identified more than 8,400 children from Ukraine systematically relocated to at least 57 facilities, including locations in Belarus and Russia-occupied territories. Separate research has documented 314 individual Ukrainian children transferred to Russia for coerced adoption and fostering, actions the International Criminal Court has characterized as war crimes.

The investigation spans 20 months of research and represents what experts describe as the largest missing persons case since World War II.

Ukraine unveiled a new robotic battlefield platform — a ground drone, capable of transporting over 2 tons of cargo, navigating without GPS, and supporting both logistics and direct combat roles, Ukrainian defense news site Militarnyi reports.

Ukraine presents VATAG heavy robotic ground system

On 16 September 2025, Ukraine officially introduced the VATAG heavy NRK — “robotic ground complex,” a multifunctional platform designed to support troops on the battlefield across a range of tasks. The system can carry more than 2 tons of payload, powered by a hybrid propulsion system that enables autonomous operation and high fuel efficiency, Militarnyi says.

The drone is built to handle a diverse set of missions — from logistics transport and engineering duties to direct participation in combat operations. According to the developers, VATAG’s features include a silent mode for covert missions, the ability to operate as a mobile powerbank for frontline units, and built-in resistance to electronic warfare.

Designed for the battlefield — not just the backend

The VATAG platform goes beyond transport. It integrates armament options, including a proprietary 25 mm combat module revealed alongside the system. This allows the robot to actively support armed engagements, not just logistical functions.

Its architecture reportedly enables autonomous navigation without relying on GPS, using convoy mode and obstacle avoidance to move through contested environments. This allows it to support forces even in areas under heavy jamming or in need of stealth movement. The system’s hybrid power unit improves fuel efficiency.

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The drone reportedly includes software-hardware solutions powered by artificial intelligence that enhance its autonomous capabilities.

Militarnyi says the system was developed by an international robotics and drone company with 11 years of experience, already having a manufacturing base capable of launching full-scale production and adapting components to meet customer requirements rapidly.

Estonia is building new fortifications along its eastern frontier as part of a sweeping Baltic defense effort against possible Russian invasions in the future. ERR reports that construction has started on a 40 km anti-tank trench on the border with Russia.

40 km trench planned on southeast border

According to ERR, the work has begun in villages along the country’s southeast border. The trench is part of a defense system designed to slow and block armored advances. The first section near Vinski village in Meremäe measures half a kilometer. Future trenches will be dug inside delay fences and equipped with dragon’s teeth and razor wire.

Natural barriers in northeast, fortifications in southeast

Colonel Lieutenant Ainar Afanasjev, pioneer inspector at the Estonian General Staff, said Estonia’s northeast already benefits from natural defenses. The Narva River and Lake Peipus act as barriers. Southeast Estonia lacks such features, so the plan calls for 40 km of trenches across vulnerable ground. Marshlands will remain untouched, as heavy vehicles cannot pass through them. By the end of 2027, Estonia expects more than 40 km of trenches completed along with about 600 bunkers, either dug in or stored near original sites.

Defense zone stretches 100 km

The Baltic defense line in Estonia will extend about 100 km along the eastern border and 40 km inland. This year, two strongpoints will be built: one in northeast Estonia and another in the southeast. Each strongpoint will consist of up to 14 bunkers. According to Armin Siilivask of the Estonian Center for Defense Investment’s procurement department, storage areas are also being prepared. Materials now placed in pre-storage sites will be transported closer to strongpoints to ensure quick deployment.

Since his release from a Russian prison, Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Khyliuk has barely been off the phone. BBC reports that he spent three and a half years in Russian captivity after being detained in the first days of the full-scale invasion. He was freed last month in a prisoner swap, one of eight civilians released in a rare move by Moscow.

Amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, most exchanges between Russia and Ukraine have involved soldiers. The return of eight civilians, including Dmytro, came in a group of 146 Ukrainians. They did not disclose the exact terms of the deal, only that it included “people Russia was interested in.” One source told BBC that some of them were residents of Russia’s Kursk region, evacuated during Ukraine’s incursion in 2024.

Crowds gathered waving Ukrainian flags when the freed men returned, many of them emaciated from years behind bars. Stepping off the bus, Dmytro immediately phoned his mother to say he was finally free. His parents are elderly and unwell, and he had long feared never seeing them again.

A testimony of constant cruelty

Speaking to BBC after his release, Dmytro described brutal treatment in multiple Russian facilities.

“They grabbed us and literally dragged us to the prison and on the way they beat us with rubber batons shouting things like, ‘How many people have you killed?’” he recalled.

Guards sometimes set dogs on prisoners.

“The cruelty was really shocking and it was constant,” he said.

He was never charged with a crime. In the first year, he endured starvation, losing more than 20 kg in a few months. He lost more than 20kg in the first few months. He also saw soldiers tortured with electric shocks during interrogations. The sounds of their pain and the bruises on their bodies left lasting impressions.

Captivity begins at home

The ordeal started in 2022 in Kozarovychi, his family’s village near Kyiv. As he and his father Vasyl checked damage to their home during Russia’s assault on the capital, troops detained them. Both men were bound, blindfolded, and held in a basement under warehouses used as a Russian base.

Vasyl was released, but Dmytro was transferred deeper into Russia. His parents later received just two scraps of paper from him. One note read, “I’m alive, I’m well. Everything’s ok.” For months, they feared the worst.

Families left waiting

BBC reports that more than 16,000 Ukrainian civilians remain missing. Officials have confirmed that only a fraction are in Russian prisons. Moscow does not publish lists. In Dmytro’s area alone, 43 men remain unaccounted for.

One of them is Volodymyr Loburets, detained at the same time as Dmytro. He has a new grandson he has never met. His wife Vira told BBC,

“I had a husband – and now I don’t.”

Families are frustrated because the Ukrainian government will not swap Russian soldiers for civilian hostages.

Ukraine’s impossible choices

Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets told BBC that dealing with Russia is like “playing chess with an opponent who stands up, pulls on boxing gloves and punches you.” Ukraine has no Russian civilian prisoners to trade, while sending soldiers back in return for civilians would trigger more abductions. Only one previous exchange involved Ukrainians accused of collaboration. It is unclear if that approach will be repeated.

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Home again, but changed forever

For Dmytro, the long wait is almost over. He is recovering in a Kyiv hospital before returning to his village. His mother Halyna can hardly mention his name without crying.

“When Dima called, he told me to be calm, that I shouldn’t cry anymore. But we haven’t seen our son for three and a half years!” she said.

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Back home, his house still bears shrapnel scars from Russia’s advance. He admits returning requires adjustment.

“So the trees are the same, the buildings are the same. But you understand this is a different country. You’re in a different reality,” he said.

Ukraine says it is ready to train NATO partners in downing Russian drones after recent incursions into Poland and Romania. Kyiv stresses that Europe must urgently learn from Ukraine’s battlefield-tested drone warfare or risk falling behind Moscow. 

NATO skies breached

Russian drones have repeatedly violated NATO airspace in recent weeks. Poland shot down at least three Geran drones with Russian Cyrillic markings on 7 September, while Romania confirmed a drone incursion near the village of Chilia Veche during a Russian strike on the Danube.

“These are not accidents,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned. “It is an obvious expansion of Russia’s war.”

Romania summoned Moscow’s ambassador, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ordered ground-based air defenses to the highest alert. NATO allies scrambled F-16s, F-35s, and AWACS surveillance planes in response.

Ukraine offers to train NATO in drone defense

Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force Command, said Kyiv is ready to share hard-won expertise in shooting down Russian drones.

“The type of missiles used to shoot them down is their business. But they don’t have as much experience as Ukraine,” Ihnat said.

He proposed hosting training in Lviv or Kraków, noting that Polish and Romanian jets have struggled to intercept the “Gerans” — Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones, which he called “not an easy target, especially for fighter aircraft.”

“For over 40 minutes, two fighter jets couldn’t do anything. They tried, but lost a lot of time,” Ihnat said, recalling a recent Romanian encounter.

Ukraine’s drone ecosystem: speed, scale, urgency

Over 3.5 years of the all-out war, Ukraine has built a unique drone warfare ecosystem — a blend of military innovation, civilian expertise, and private-sector production. From garage workshops to defense tech startups, more than 200 UAV types have been developed, with Ukraine now streamlining to 20–30 effective models.

Operations like Spiderweb, where 117 drones struck four Russian bases, destroying dozens of bombers, illustrate both the precision and mass Ukraine brings to the battlefield. This “War DevOps” culture—borrowing from software development—lets Ukraine redesign, test, and deploy new drone variants in weeks, sometimes days, far faster than NATO procurement cycles.

Lessons Europe cannot ignore

In these consequences, ignoring Ukraine’s experience might be a strategic error. Drone incursions into Poland and Romania show that Europe’s air defense remains vulnerable. Kyiv’s bottom-up innovation culture—where frontline pilots, instructors, and civilian volunteers constantly refine tactics—offers a model NATO allies should adopt.

Ukraine is already in talks with Denmark, Norway, and Germany to share knowledge, and Zelenskyy has openly proposed a “mega-deal” with the US to transfer Ukraine’s advanced drones in exchange for American weapons.

During one of his visits to the White House, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy pitched President Donald Trump on a $50 billion deal to supply and co-produce drones with the US. Zelenskyy told journalists that the program, which hasn’t been finalized, would deliver 10 million unmanned systems annually over five years.

Polish authorities have identified and detained two young people who operated a drone over government buildings in Warsaw on 15 September, according to spokesman for Poland’s special services coordinator Jacek Dobrzyński.

The detained individuals are a 21-year-old Ukrainian citizen and a 17-year-old Belarusian woman, TVN24 reports. Both were apprehended by the State Protection Service after the drone was spotted flying over Polish government buildings and the Belvedere Palace.

“This is a young Belarusian woman and her twenty-something colleague from Ukraine. These individuals were directly detained by State Protection Service officers. Police were notified, who also arrived at the scene and took these persons into custody,” Dobrzyński said at a press conference on 16 September.

The spokesman clarified that both individuals are in Poland legally – the Belarusian woman for several days, and the Ukrainian for eight years, according to RMF24.

Polish special services have ruled out espionage as a motive. Dobrzyński dismissed speculation about intelligence activities, stating: “We are refuting rumors that this was some massive spy operation. At this stage, no one can definitively determine this.”

The investigation points toward a violation of aviation law rather than criminal espionage. “These are young people, perhaps this resulted from carelessness, perhaps from ignorance, perhaps from the fact that they wanted to make some film here over Łazienki (Royal). Especially since they were in Łazienki Park and launched the drone from there,” Dobrzyński explained.

Warsaw District Prosecutor’s Office spokesman Piotr Antoni Skiba confirmed that evidence and circumstances indicate “violation of aviation law regulations, not the commission of espionage crime.” The prosecutor’s office expects to receive case materials on Wednesday.

Police secured the drone used by the detained individuals and are conducting proceedings under Article 212 of the Aviation Law. The article stipulates that anyone who violates air traffic regulations while operating an aircraft faces up to five years imprisonment.

The incident occurred on 15 September evening when Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the State Protection Service had neutralized a drone operating over government buildings and the Belvedere Palace in Warsaw. Initially, Tusk reported the detention of two Belarusian citizens, but later information revealed one detainee was Ukrainian.

Polish law prohibits drone flights over government buildings and critical infrastructure. Special markings and signs indicate no-drone zones, and operators must use the DroneTower application to register flights and check permitted areas through the DroneMap system provided by the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency.

The detained individuals are currently providing testimony at a police station, while the Internal Security Agency monitors the investigation to determine their motives for operating the drone in the restricted zone.

The Institute for the Study of War reported on 15 September that Russian officials are intensifying threats against NATO member states following recent drone incursions into Poland, with top Kremlin figures warning of direct confrontation over Western support for Ukraine.

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 15 September that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine permitting NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones would “mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia,” according to ISW analysis of his Russian- and English-language channels.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly said on 15 September that “NATO is at war with Russia” and “NATO is de facto involved in” the war in Ukraine by providing support to Ukraine.

The threats target European financial measures against Russia. Medvedev warned that Russia will “go after” EU states providing Ukraine with loans backed by Russian assets in “all possible international and national courts.” He added that “in some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure” – what ISW characterizes as a possible threat to use kinetic action against EU states.

Peskov condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, stating that “such steps will not go unnoticed,” according to the analysis.

ISW assesses that these statements aim to prevent NATO and European states from defending themselves and Ukraine against Russian provocations, including the 9-10 September drone incursion into Poland.

ISW notes that Kremlin officials routinely invoke narratives similar to those Russia used to justify its Ukraine invasions – including territorial claims and false characterizations of Euromaidan as a “coup” – when threatening neighboring states, including NATO members.

Meanwhile, Russian and Belarusian forces continued Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on 15 September, implementing tactical lessons from Ukraine operations, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Forces conducted training at Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast, Kaliningrad Oblast, and the Barents Sea.

The Russian MoD confirmed that Leningrad Military District elements practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast, which borders NATO members Lithuania and Poland. The nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching missile strikes against naval targets, while Northern Fleet elements struck mock enemy submarines in the Barents Sea.

Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers patrolled “the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours, the MoD reported. The Belarusian MoD stated that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Türkiye, observed the exercises.

ISW highlights that Russian and Belarusian forces practiced maneuvering with all-terrain vehicles to reduce crossing times in open areas and decrease vulnerability to first-person view drone strikes – tactics developed from Ukraine battlefield experience. The exercises allow Russia to institutionalize combat lessons outside active combat zones while improving joint interoperability with Belarus.

The analysis warns that Russia is using Zapad-2025 to practice potential kinetic provocations against NATO states. Nuclear capability exercises occurred in Barents Sea waters bordering Norway and in Kaliningrad Oblast near Lithuania and Poland.

EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius said on 15 September that 40% of European flights face jamming – likely from Russia. ISW reported that Russian officials previously used Kaliningrad for GPS jamming across Europe and reportedly constructed a military-grade Circularly Disposed Antenna Array 25 kilometers from the Polish border.

The report concludes that Zapad-2025 provides Russia and Belarus a platform to refine escalation techniques that serve as pressure against NATO.

Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed that special forces units struck the Saratov oil refinery overnight on 16 September. Explosions and fire were reportedly recorded at the site, a facility that plays a critical role in fueling Russia’s armed forces. At the same time, Ukrainian Telegram channels reported a possible hit on another Russian refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

Strike on Saratov refinery

According to the General Staff, Ukrainian special operations forces, in coordination with other defense units, carried out the attack in Saratov Oblast. Explosions and a blaze were recorded near the refinery after the overnight strike. Officials said the full results of the attack are still being clarified.

The Saratov refinery produces more than 20 types of oil products, including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and various grades of bitumen. It also processes vacuum gas oil and technical sulfur. In 2023, the refinery’s output reached 4.8 million tons. Ukrainian authorities stressed that the facility has been directly involved in meeting the supply needs of Russia’s armed forces.

Euromaidan Press could not independently confirm the fire and damage to the refinery in Saratov. 

Reported hit on Kstovo refinery

Ukrainian Telegram channels reported that another refinery in Russia may also have been hit. Telegram channel Supernova+ shared photos of a distant smoke and wrote that in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, a refinery flare was burning more intensely due to an emergency pressure discharge following a strike.

The information has not been officially confirmed.

Part of wider Ukrainian campaign

This strike follows a pattern of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

• On 30 August, defense forces hit the Krasnodar and Syzran refineries.
• On 5 September, the General Staff confirmed hits on the Ryazan refinery.
• On 13 September, Ukrainian drones attacked the Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Ufa.
• On 14 September, a Ukrainian drone strike ignited a major fire at the Kirishi refinery near St Petersburg, forcing a key unit offline

The Czech Republic’s artillery shell procurement program for Ukraine has delivered over one million rounds in 2025, but the initiative faces mounting political opposition from the country’s leading opposition party ahead of October’s parliamentary elections.

ANO party leader and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has branded the ammunition drive “rotten” and pledged to scrap it if returned to power.

“Based on the information we have, there are inappropriate profit margins, poor quality and questionable suppliers involved. For these reasons, it should be managed at the NATO level,” ANO deputy chair Karel Havlíček told Politico.

Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced the milestone delivery through social media, confirming that “as of today, through the Czech initiative, we have already delivered one million units of large-caliber ammunition to Ukraine this year.” The program, which began in April 2024, aims to deliver 1.8 million rounds throughout 2025, according to Aleš Vytečka, head of the Intergovernmental Defense Cooperation Agency.

The initiative emerged in response to US delays in ammunition shipments to Ukraine at a critical battlefield moment. Czech President Petr Pavel revealed that before the program launched, Russia maintained a tenfold advantage in artillery ammunition, which has since been reduced to a 2-to-1 ratio in Moscow’s favor.

Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský has defended the program against political attacks. “Any halt to the initiative would be a real gift to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. Those who talk about it are gambling with Europe’s security,” Lipavský warned during a meeting with Czech ambassadors last month.

The ammunition initiative operates by collecting Western donations and purchasing shells on the global market before sending the combined total to Kyiv. Last year, the Czech Republic coordinated delivery of 1.5 million rounds with financial contributions from 14 countries.

Despite the program’s international recognition, domestic support has weakened. A June poll by the Stem organization found that 49% of Czechs believe their country’s support for Ukraine is excessive, while only 29% consider it appropriate and 6% find it insufficient.

ANO’s criticism has resonated with voters, with the party polling at 32 percent support compared to 21 percent for Fiala’s Spolu coalition, according to POLITICO’s poll of polls.

The program has faced transparency concerns, though Vytečka stressed that operational security requires confidentiality. “We cannot publicly disclose the type or price of the ammunition, its destination, or the delivery date. However, every single donation is reported on a weekly basis,” he explained.

Czech President Pavel acknowledged he “can’t guarantee the continuity of Czech policy on Ukraine, as that depends on the outcome of the October election.”

The initiative has elevated the Czech Republic’s international standing. Martin Vokálek from Brussels-based think tank Europeum noted that “across Europe, at least in my circle of colleagues, this is something we are known for.”

Public skepticism reflects broader war fatigue, according to analyst Jiří Táborský. “Since only a few people believe Ukraine will win and even fewer believe there will be a quick resolution, they don’t see the point in sending military aid,” he told reporters.

However, grassroots support remains strong through crowdfunding efforts. The volunteer initiative “Dárek pro Putina” (A Gift for Putin) has raised over 1 billion koruna (€41 million) from more than 360,000 donations to purchase military equipment for Ukraine.

Vytečka attributed Czech generosity to historical memory of Nazi German occupation after the 1938 Munich Conference and Soviet intervention during the 1968 Prague Spring. “Because of the memories of these two events, the majority feels [sympathy] with Ukraine,” he said.

No country in modern history has devoted 27% of its entire economy to defense. Ukraine’s 2026 budget crosses that threshold while facing a $10 billion funding shortfall, forcing Western taxpayers to fund basic government operations—from healthcare to pensions—because nearly all domestic revenue now flows to the military.

Ukraine’s government submitted this wartime budget to Parliament on 15 September, creating the most acute test yet of Western resolve to sustain Ukraine’s total war footing.

Record defense mobilization exposes Western aid limits

The proposed 4.8 trillion hryvnia ($117 billion) budget allocates 2.8 trillion hryvnias ($68 billion) to defense and security—more than the entire domestic revenue base.

Parliamentary Finance Committee Chairman Danylo Hetmantsev told RBC-Ukraine the gap represents “very big money, a very big and fundamental problem.” He explained that the National Bank and Cabinet base their calculations on assumptions of “slower return of the economy to normal operating conditions and preservation of high security risks.”

This funding crisis continues a multi-year pattern of Ukrainian budget shortfalls. Euromaidan Press reported last week that Ukraine faced a $7 billion defense gap despite surplus civilian aid, while the IMF discovered that Ukraine needs $20 billion more through 2027 than initially estimated.

Defense spending has escalated from previous levels—as Euromaidan Press pointed out, Ukraine already dedicates more of its economy to defense than any other country in modern history.

Social spending tensions emerge

Despite the funding crisis, the budget proposes major social spending increases: 50% teacher salary raises, expanded healthcare coverage, and higher pensions.

He specifically targeted programs like 100,000 hryvnia ($2,430) grants for creative industry entrepreneurs, arguing such spending “looks wild” during wartime. “We shouldn’t pretend we’re at peace,” Hetmantsev said, calling for better prioritization of limited resources.

The tension reflects a fundamental challenge: maintaining civilian morale through continued social services while dedicating nearly all domestic resources to the military. Previous Euromaidan Press analysis showed Ukraine now spends more servicing war debt than supporting elderly and vulnerable citizens.

Dependence on Western generosity deepens

Ukraine’s 2026 budget reveals total reliance on foreign financing for non-military functions. Negotiations continue for nearly half of the 2.08 trillion hryvnias ($50.5 billion) needed externally.

Germany has committed 9 billion euros ($10.6 billion) annually, while Norway has promised 8.5 billion dollars. But gaps remain large enough to threaten basic government operations.

The dependency creates structural vulnerabilities as Western political pressures mount. Aid restrictions compound the problem.

This creates a structural mismatch where civilian programs receive foreign support while military needs must rely entirely on Ukraine’s limited tax base.

War duration planning creates negotiating pressure

The budget includes a new 200 billion hryvnia ($4.9 billion) “defense reserve” allowing rapid redistribution between military branches based on battlefield needs. This reflects government assumptions about continued fighting requiring flexible resource allocation.

The budget framework assumes sustained “high security risks” and only gradual economic normalization—scenarios requiring years of continued international support.

Previous Ukrainian defense budgets have consistently proven insufficient, requiring multiple revisions. The 2024 defense budget increased by $12 billion mid-year.

Parliamentary timeline intensifies funding negotiations

Parliament will not review the budget until late November, with the first reading by 20 October and the final passage by 20 November. This timeline puts immediate pressure on international negotiations to close the $10 billion gap.

Maintaining this record requires securing the funds that are missing during ongoing negotiations with the IMF and European partners.

The 2026 budget represents Ukraine’s starkest financial reality yet: a country dedicating over a quarter of its entire economy to defense while completely dependent on foreign goodwill for basic government functions.

Whether Western partners can sustain this unprecedented level of support will determine the viability of Ukraine’s war effort and its state.

Ukraine’s 11 Army Corps reported late on 15 September that Russian forces tried to infiltrate Yampil in Donetsk Oblast by disguising themselves as civilians. The saboteurs were detected, blocked, and neutralized in a sweeping counter-operation.

Russians disguised as civilians in Yampil

According to the 11 Army Corps, Russian troops violated international humanitarian law by wearing civilian clothes and posing as residents. Groups of disguised soldiers hid in detached houses, basements, and other structures while using civilians who had not evacuated as shields. Ukrainian forces conducted anti-terrorist measures that revealed, surrounded, and neutralized the infiltrators.

The statement stressed that Yampil and nearby territory remain fully under the control of Ukraine’s defense forces. Russia achieved no tactical results, and all attempts to carry out reconnaissance or sabotage in the settlement failed.

Deepstate tracks infiltration attempts

Earlier on 15 September, Ukrainian OSINT project Deepstate also reported that Russian infiltrators in civilian clothing had entered Yampil. Around 19:00, the project wrote that defense forces immediately began hunting them down.

“Russians are hiding in houses, basements, and cellars,” Deepstate noted, adding that the presence of residents who stayed behind made operations more difficult.

The project said Yampil had been a repeated target for infiltration and warned of possible increased activity, as Russian forces see the settlement as critical for positions east of it. Deepstate also reported that part of Yampil remained a gray zone, with active fighting ongoing. Updates to its interactive war map appear with some delay.

Ukrainian forces struck command posts of Russian military units in occupied Donetsk Oblast on 8 September, targeting personnel including command staff shortly after Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited the area, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on 16 September.

The strikes hit command posts of Russia’s “Center” military grouping and the 41st Combined Arms Army operating on the Pokrovsk direction, according to the General Staff. Ukrainian forces targeted the locations using missile troops, artillery, Air Forces, and unmanned systems in coordination with other Defense Forces units.

The timing of the attack proved significant. Belousov had visited the Russian command posts on the Pokrovsk direction on 28 August, just days before Ukrainian forces successfully struck the same locations where the occupation army command was stationed.

“Strikes on these military targets significantly disrupt the command and control of Russian Armed Forces units and subunits,” the General Staff reported. “Ukraine’s Defense Forces continue to deliver precise strikes on aggressor targets to force the Russian Federation to stop its war of aggression.”

The 8 September operation resulted in casualties among Russian personnel, with command staff among those hit, Ukrainian military officials confirmed. The targeted command posts belonged to units actively operating on the Pokrovsk front, one of the war’s most contested areas.

Local residents reported explosions in occupied Donetsk on 8 September, with OSINT analysts identifying strikes on the former Topaz metallurgical plant. The same day, Russian forces shelled a non-operational DTEK processing plant in Donbas.

The Ukrainian General Staff emphasized that the strikes form part of ongoing efforts to degrade Russian military capabilities and command structures in occupied territories. The coordinated operation involved multiple branches of Ukraine’s Defense Forces working together to target the Russian military infrastructure.

Sky News reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin is trying to trick US President Donald Trump in order to escape sanctions, while NATO continues to face Russian provocations.

Putin “doing everything to avoid sanctions”

Speaking to Sky News at the Presidential Palace in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said the Russian leader is exploiting diplomacy with Trump to buy time in order to “be better prepared.” He argued that Putin’s aim is not peace, but to stop the United States from imposing further penalties. According to him,

“He’s doing everything he can to avoid sanctions, to prevent US and Trump from putting sanctions on him, and if you keep postponing applying sanctions any further, then the Russians will be better prepared.”

Zelenskyy warned that Putin seeks to escape isolation, describing the Alaska summit last month as a tool for the Kremlin to gain international visibility. He said,

“He should have received a setback in this war and stop, but instead, he received de-isolation. He got the photos with President Trump. He received public dialogue, and I think this opens the doors for Putin into some other summits and formats.”

“He understands only the language of force”

The Ukrainian president stressed that Moscow will not be persuaded by arguments or negotiations. Instead, he said Russia’s leader responds only to strength.

“He understands force. That’s his language. That is the language he understands,” Zelenskyy told Sky News, calling on Europe and the United States to act quicker.

He added that while sanctions are in place, they are not enough to stop Russia’s war.

Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of not giving Putin “space,” warning that every delay in sanctions strengthens Moscow’s position. He argued that Western hesitation risks leaving Russia better prepared for further aggression.

Today, there is important news from the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk Oblast.

Here, Russia’s offensive around Pokrovsk has finally collapsed into disorganized, scattered assaults, exposing the total breakdown of its campaign. Seizing the moment, Ukrainian forces struck back with momentum, liberating another key town and turning the tide of the battle.

Russia’s flanks crumble near Pokrovsk

The fighting around Pokrovsk has entered a new phase, where the intensity of Russian assaults on the flanks has clearly declined and their once grand offensive has fractured into scattered, uncoordinated attacks. What remains is little more than small groups probing Ukrainian defenses, seemingly just to avoid a complete halt that would openly expose the failure of the Russian campaign.

On the western flank near Udachne, Russian efforts have been reduced to chaotic infiltration attempts without any combined arms support. On the eastern flank near Myrnohrad, the story is much the same, with piecemeal assaults ending in abandonment of vehicles and panicked retreats under Ukrainian fire. The larger picture is unmistakable, as the Russian encirclement attempts around Pokrovsk have fallen apart.

Ukraine has seized the opportunity to strike back, and near Udachne, the lack of Russian coordination was turned against them. Ukrainian forces launched a deliberate push, clearing the settlement and raising the national flag over its center. What had been temporarily filled with scattered Russian infiltrators was retaken swiftly, with videos showing Ukrainian units inside the village. The half-hearted Russian attempts to regain ground have been nothing short of disastrous. Assaults sent down predictable roads ended with fields littered with bodies, creating roads of death that Ukrainians control tightly with drones and artillery.

A similar pattern unfolded near Myrnohrad on the eastern flank, where the Ukrainians knocked out a handful of Russian armored assaults, before moving in to finish off the remnants.

Footage from near Hrodivka shows Russian soldiers abandoning positions and fleeing under pressure from Ukrainian marines in hot pursuit, confirming that momentum has swung decisively on this flank as well.

Pipeline infiltration ends in failure

It is in this environment of failure that the Russian command has once again turned to bizarre symbolic operations to save face. The answer, incredibly, was to repeat one of their infamous pipe operations, stuffing troops into sewer systems in the hope of infiltrating Pokrovsk and producing some footage of progress.

The Russians have repeatedly tried these tactics in several sectors already, with varying degrees of success and failure. Now, the repetition has played out the same way, with Russian soldiers crawling through the filth only to be eliminated.

After the Russians released a video in which they allegedly try to break into Pokrovsk through the sewer, a Ukrainian officer said they were aware but were not worried. The Ukrainian defenders employed specialist who previously worked on the local pipe network, who stated that advancing through sewer pipes toward Pokrovsk is impossible due to their condition and construction, as they either lack the necessary diameter for a person to pass through or are filled with waste.

Offensive ends with high losses

Obviously, the Russian commanders were lacking this information when they sent their troops inside, and besides the initial footage at the very beginning where the pipes were still wide enough to crawl through, the most likely outcome was suffocation in the pipes at a later stage of the operation with them unable to turn around and withdraw.

Despite being a valid attempt to try to surprise the Ukrainian defense from behind, this effort proved entirely meaningless, and it is very unlikely to have succeeded because of the Ukrainian high alertness due to all recent infiltration attempts in and around Pokrovsk.

Overall, Russia committed significant resources and manpower to the Pokrovsk axis, throwing battalion after battalion against Ukrainian defenses. Yet every thrust on the western, eastern, and northern flanks has collapsed, leaving nothing but wrecked vehicles and soaring casualty lists. To distract from this, commanders have resorted to sewer infiltrations and other theatrics that fail to alter the battlefield balance.

With autumn rains fast approaching, Russia’s much-hyped summer offensive has ended without achieving its main goal of capturing Pokrovsk. Instead, Ukrainian countermeasures have not only preserved the town but have rolled back enemy gains, and Russian bodies littering the fields and underground sewer lines.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Exclusive

Ukrainian troops are on the attack in Sumy—and advancing. Moscow stripped troops from Sumy to double down on its attack in Donetsk. For Kyiv, that was an opportunity.

Moscow touts new tank production in Omsk—analysts cry hype. Russia may have fired up a second production line for new tanks. But how many new T-80s is Uralvagonzavod actually producing?

AI sees, diesel drives, armor protects—Ukraine’s 4-ton ground drone Bufalo is designed to endure war. Unlike earlier robotic systems, Bufalo is built to go the distance and stay useful even when hit.

War reshapes Ukraine’s economy, turning taxes into tanks and groceries into survival math. Latest household and budget data expose Ukraine’s triple economic burden as the country spends 31% of GDP on defence.

Military

Frontline report: Russia tried to break through Sumy — now Ukraine threatens its troops from behind

. The frontline has blurred into one battlespace where state lines no longer matter.

Ukraine liberates Pankivka village while as Russia deploys 4 brigades to Dobropillia direction. Russian forces lost control of Pankivka settlement to Ukrainian defense units operating under the 1st NGU “Azov” Corps

Ukraine downs Russia’s rare cruise missile-capable heavy drone Orion in Kursk Oblast using interceptor UAV (video). The 414th drone brigade confirmed it as their biggest drone kill since the start of the full-scale war. The Orion has a wingspan of 16 meters.

HUR drone strikes Russian Buk-M3 air defense system 50km behind front lines. The Main Intelligence Directorate has added another Russian air defense system to its target list, striking a Buk-M3 complex in occupied Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian strike destroys key Russian radar station in Rostov Oblast. Russia has lost a key air traffic control radar system in its southern region after Ukrainian forces struck the RLK-1 Navigatsiya Yuga complex on 4 Sept.

ISW: Ukraine strikes pipeline after Russians use underground route for third infiltration mission of war. The Russian military is transferring specialized infiltration tactics across different front sectors, with forces near Kupiansk replicating underground pipeline advances previously used in Avdiivka and Sudzha

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine offers allies to learn how to fight modern skies as hundreds of Russian drones destroyed nightly. Ukraine’s Air Force commanders coordinate small units, interceptor drones, and electronic warfare systems.

Ukraine uses Estonian launchers for its long-range drone strikes on Russia

. Ukraine has conducted long-range drone strikes using Estonian CATA launcher systems since 2022, enabling attacks on Russian territory

Frontline without internet – Ukrainian troops hit by Starlink outage. On the morning 15 September, a major outage affected the Starlink satellite internet network along the entire frontline, disrupting connectivity used by Ukrainian forces

International

Trump’s push to warm relations with Belarus may save Russia’s dying aviation fleet. The lifting of sanctions could let Minsk feed components straight into Moscow’s grounded aircraft.

“No-fly, no-AAA” corridor could allow Warsaw stop Russian drones in Ukraine before they hit Poland. Mobile fire groups, AWACS, and fighter jets could intercept hundreds of incoming targets.

Experts uncover US “shopping list” that feeds Russia’s war machine with $2.50 billion in 2025. Energy, metals, and resources — every crate and container keeps the Kremlin’s missiles flying while civilians suffer.

“I don’t see anyone willing to fight with Russia”: Sikorski explains why security guarantees for Ukraine may fail like Budapest Memorandum. He recalled Budapest’s failed guarantees and warned the new ones may collapse the same way.

Norway opens large training camp for Ukrainian military in Poland. A 23-year-old Ukrainian brigade instructor who survived battles in Bakhmut’s “meat grinder” now helps Norwegian forces design realistic combat training at a secret military camp in Poland

Belarus opens doors to US officers at Russian-Belarusian war games in Belarus

. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin rolled out the red carpet for visiting US officers at the West-2025 exercise, telling them they could “go there and see, talk to people” in what officials called a surprise development.

Poland permits NATO deployment on its soil following Russian drone incursion. This comes as a part of the alliance’s new “Eastern Sentinel” initiative with contributions from Denmark, France, Britain, Germany and other allies.

Sikorski: Putin’s Polish drone incursion was calculated probe of NATO resolve. Russia’s use of unarmed but weapons-capable drones against Poland represents a new escalation tactic designed to test NATO boundaries without triggering full-scale war.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

City in Ukraine’s only region bordering both Russia and Belarus suffers its most devastating attack since war began. Nizhyn endured 16 hours of drone strikes that set an oil depot ablaze, wounded rescuers, and left entire districts without power.

Three Russian bombs hit Kramatorsk center, injuring 15 civilians.

Russia hits Zaporizhzhia suburbs: Houses burn, power cut in night attack. Russian forces launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine, firing three S-300 missiles and 84 drones from six directions

Political and Legal Developments

Nielsen slammed for counting occupied Ukrainian lands as new Russian regions. Global analytics giant NielsenIQ has found itself at the center of controversy after its Russian subsidiary began publicly treating Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories as “new regions of Russia” in its FMCG market research

Read our earlier daily review here.

Russian troops are falling back in Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine.

That’s not surprising. The Kremlin has pulled no fewer than five marine and airborne brigades, regiments and divisions from Sumy and redirected them south to Donetsk Oblast, where a pair of Russian field armies are struggling to hold back a Ukrainian counterattack.

Both sides in Russia’s 43-month wider war on Ukraine have shifted troops from Sumy to Donetsk as the battle for the fortress city of Pokrovsk intensifies. But it’s evident the Russians have weakened their forces in Sumy more than the Ukrainians have.

In recent days, Ukrainian troops have ejected the Russians from the area around the villages of Kostiantynivka and Novokostiantynivka in Sumy just a few hundred meters from the border with Russia, analysis group Deep State reported Sunday.

“There are achievements in the Sumy region,” Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sept. 12.

It seems the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is the main Russian formation in the vicinity of Kostiantynivka and Novokostiantynivka. It’s the last large marine unit left in Sumy after the Kremlin concentrated five marine regiments and brigades east of Pokrovsk in recent weeks.

Pokrovsk is one of the last major Ukrainian strongholds between hundreds of thousands of Russian troops and the main Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban center in western Donetsk. If Pokrovsk falls, all of Donetsk may fall.

Donetsk is the priority. And the Kremlin seems to be willing to risk its gains in Sumy to make further gains in Donetsk. In addition to moving the marines to the east at the expense of the north, Russian commanders have shifted existing field armies in the sector surrounding Pokrovsk.

East of Pokrovsk, three Russian field armies and corps—the 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies and the 68th Army Corps—face around nine Ukrainian regiments and brigades plus a few separate battalions, some of them under the command of the new 1st Azov Corps.

Explore further

Russia saved armor all year for this moment—150,000 troops close in on Pokrovsk

Russian horde

Counting the newly arrived marines, there may be around 80,000 Russians and perhaps half as many Ukrainians along a stretch of the front line that’s no longer than 25 km.

Ukrainian forces may have an advantage in drones, however. Russian marine commanders are reluctant to deploy their armored vehicles toward Pokrovsk “due to the enormous amount of [Ukrainian] UAVs in the air, Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher explained.

The Russians are still reeling from the 1st Azov Corps’ recent counterattack against a Russian motor rifle brigade that infiltrated under-manned Ukrainian lines northeast of Pokrovsk last month; even with all those reinforcements, they’ve yet to regain the momentum in the sector.

And that middle performance so far may be costing them in Sumy as the Ukrainians take advantage of new gaps in Russian lines.

This was a predictable outcome. In robbing Sumy to reinforce Donetsk, the Kremlin gambled the Ukrainians had finally exhausted their reserves and could no longer respond in kind in Donetsk—or exploit Russian weakness in Sumy.

The gamble hasn’t paid off—at least not yet. At least one observer expected this would happen. The Russians “actually thought Ukraine was out of infantry,” American analyst Andrew Perpetua mused.

While it’s true Ukrainian brigades are struggling with a shortage of trained infantry, there’s a big difference between Ukraine have too few trigger-pullers to comfortably perform every possible mission … and having so few that it’s impossible to respond to large-scale Russian moves like we’re seeing in Donetsk and Sumy.

According to Perpetua, Ukrainian commanders had made the deliberate decision to leave some trenches empty—potentially including some around Pokrovsk—in order to buy time for certain brigades, such as the 95th Air Assault Brigade, to rebuild.

“It was a sacrifice,” Perpetua said. “Sacrifice ground for time while refitting and then you can attack later.”

It’s possible these rebuilt brigades are the ones giving the Russians so much trouble now—counterattacking in Donetsk and Sumy, and pushing back the Russians in the latter oblast. The 95th Air Assault Brigade, it’s worth noting, is on the front line in Sumy.

Explore further

Russian marines rushed to save the Pokrovsk offensive—HIMARS had other ideas

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on 15 September that the State Protection Service neutralized a drone flying above Warsaw’s government quarter. The incident ended with the detention of two Belarusian citizens, and police are now investigating.

Tusk wrote:

“A short while ago, the State Protection Service neutralized a drone operating over government buildings (Parkowa) and Belweder. Two Belarusian citizens were detained. The police are investigating the circumstances of the incident.”

Drone spotted over presidential residence

Associated Press reported that the aircraft was detected near Belweder Castle, the official residence of Poland’s president. Colonel Boguslaw Piorkowski of the State Protection Service confirmed that two of his personnel stationed at Belweder spotted the drone above the compound and acted quickly. The operators were detained shortly afterward.

Piorkowski told AP that the device was not shot down but landed once the suspected operators were apprehended. The exact type of drone and the means of neutralization have not been disclosed.

Officials warn against hasty conclusions

Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Poland’s minister of development funds and regional policy, told TVN 24 that “the impression is that this is not something that flew in” from abroad but rather launched within Poland. She urged against rushing to conclusions or connecting the incident to Russian drone incursions that took place last week.

Rising tensions after Russian drone incursions and Belarusian spy activity in Poland

Militarnyi noted that on 9 September, Polish authorities detained a Belarusian agent and decided to expel a Belarusian diplomat who supported hostile activities against Poland. That arrest was part of a wider operation with Romanian and Czech services targeting a Belarusian intelligence network active in Europe. The outlet noted that it is possible agents linked to that network were also involved in launching the Warsaw drone.

The lifting of US sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia could become a new channel of support for Russian aviation. This would allow not only the repair of its own fleet of Boeing and Embraer aircraft but also the partial supply of spare parts to Russia, which has been suffering from a component shortage for several years, military expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi explains, according to Ukrainske Radio. 

At the same time, there is still no official information on the lifting of sanctions, despite reports in Belarusian media; no such decisions have been published on the US Treasury website.

US sanctions: risks for aviation safety

If restrictions were fully lifted, Belarus would be able to actively acquire spare parts for its six Boeing aircraft and supply some components to Russian carriers.

“The key issue here is not so much the legal aspect as the importance of access to spare parts,” emphasized Khrapchynskyi.

Russia and Belarus searching for donor aircraft

“At this stage, Russia and Belarus are forced to buy broken aircraft all over the world in order to use them as donors. Even in Russian legislation, they tried to include the possibility of purchasing non-original spare parts for aircraft,” the expert noted.

According to him, it is also important to understand whether the potential lifting of sanctions will affect not only Belavia but also its maintenance company, Belavia Technics, which could obtain a certificate to service aircraft.

European restrictions and possible loopholes for Russia

Despite a potential US decision, European sanctions remain in force. They prohibit Belavia from flying to Europe and from servicing Western Boeing aircraft.

“If the sanctions are lifted, where will Belavia actually be able to fly? If this is only about spare parts, won’t it simply become a gateway for the Russian fleet to acquire components? And how will the world react to this — will it turn a blind eye, or will someone monitor it?” Khrapchynskyi said.

He added that a possible partial lifting of sanctions could include restrictions: spare parts would be issued only for Belavia’s six aircraft to prevent mass deliveries to Russia.

Today, there is important news from the Sumy direction.

Ukraine advances into Kursk

Here, Ukrainian forces are advancing into the Kursk region, turning what was once a defensive stand into a renewed cross-border push. These gains now open the path to outflank and encircle Russian positions from the north to crush the already overstretched enemy lines and reshape the dynamics of the entire front.

A key factor behind this success has been the relentless Ukrainian air strike campaign against Russian reinforcements and command centers across both Sumy and Kursk. This has created openings for Ukrainian ground units to press forward. The Ukrainian Black Swan battalion recently released footage northeast of Kindrativka showing Russian aircraft attempting to bomb new Ukrainian positions, a sign of how far north the battle has shifted.

Despite Russian air activity, Ukrainian advances in this area underscore the collapse of Russia’s ability to maintain pressure in Sumy, with Ukrainian forces now fighting beyond the settlements that were once planned to serve as a foothold for Russia’s push south.

Drone warfare reshapes the battle

Complementing air strikes, Ukraine’s drone campaign is inflicting devastating damage on Russian positions at the tactical level. Heavy drone platforms like the Vampire hexacopter are proving decisive, flying long-range night missions with payloads up to 20 kilograms. These drones are not just dropping improvised explosives but carrying devastating ordnance, including anti-tank mines and a series of mortar rounds, which complicate Russian attempts to maneuver.

Most notably, Ukrainian engineers working with frontline units have introduced a new drone-dropped munition dubbed the black hole bomb. Developed by the Ukrainian Black Swan unit, the weapon has two confirmed variants. The thermobaric version unleashes a high-temperature blast wave that sucks in surrounding air, annihilating fortifications and suffocating troops caught inside trenches or buildings. The fragmentation variant detonates overhead, scattering lethal shrapnel across wide areas, ideal for clearing entrenched infantry or enemy units on the move.

Combat footage shows these black hole munitions creating huge craters and collapsing Russian firing points, their effect comparable to that of artillery shells but instead delivered with surgical precision from the sky. This innovation allows Ukrainian units to dismantle Russian defenses without waiting for conventional artillery or risking exposure of expensive fighter jets to Russian air defense systems.

Russia’s defense collapses

With Russian forces concentrated in Sumy and stretched thin after weeks of costly attacks and devastating air strikes, Ukrainian commanders have again opted for tactical maneuvers rather than frontal attrition. Instead of smashing head-on into Russia’s lines, they are methodically cutting off isolated groups, collapsing salients piece by piece, and pushing back into Kursk in the process. This strategy takes advantage of the area, where settlements are small, scattered, and dispersed, making it easier to bypass and encircle Russian detachments rather than fight through each one in sequence.

Ukrainian advances north of Kindrativka and into rural Kursk show this logic in action, turning the international border into little more than a reference line. In practice, the fighting forms a unified battle space where Ukraine’s forces cross back and forth, exploiting Russian vulnerabilities while ignoring state boundaries that no longer reflect realities on the ground.

The result is a steadily deteriorating situation for the Russian command, and what began as an attempt to push into Sumy has now backfired, with Ukraine not only halting the incursion but clawing back ground across the frontier. Russian infantry, deprived of supplies and hammered by Ukrainian air and drone strikes, cannot establish a coherent defense, and by advancing north, Ukraine is opening the possibility of flanking Russian troops still holding pockets of territory in Sumy from behind, threatening their lines of retreat and accelerating their collapse.

Overall, Ukraine’s steady progress highlights how momentum has shifted from a desperate defensive fight to prevent Russian forces from reaching Sumy city into an operation pushing enemy troops back into Kursk.

The border itself is losing meaning in the chaos of battle, and Ukraine is now able to carry the fight onto Russian soil to disrupt the enemy’s remaining footholds. With innovation in drone warfare, effective use of air power, and smart maneuvering, Ukrainian forces are not just defending but are reshaping the frontline to their advantage.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

The Russian tank factory in Omsk, in Siberia 2,300 km from Ukraine, stopped building new T-80 gas-turbine tanks back in 2001. The simpler diesel-fueled T-72 and T-90 would be Russia’s main tanks for the next quarter-century.

But then Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022—and Ukrainian forces got to work wrecking the Russian tank corps and its 3,000 active tanks, including around 500 upgraded T-80BVs and T-80BVMs.

That’s essentially all the active pre-war tanks plus another 700 older T-80s that Russian forces fetched from long-term storage and refurbished in Omsk before shipping them off to the front line.

The initial order came two years ago. And now the new tanks are “in manufacture,” according to Aleksandr Potapov, CEO of Russian tank-maker Uralvagonzavod.

Explore further

Russia saved armor all year for this moment—150,000 troops close in on Pokrovsk

Be skeptical and adjust your expectations. Before halting production in 2001, the Omsk plant hadn’t manufactured a T-80 totally from scratch since 1991. Instead, it assembled “new” T-80s from a stockpile of chassis and components workers had manufactured years prior.

It’s no wonder that Potapov has been talking about building T-80s from scratch for two years: it might have taken Uralvagonzavod that long just to find new suppliers for the thousands of parts that make up a 46-ton, three-person T-80.

Maybe the Omsk factory is finally piecing together a few new T-80s using 1991-vintage hulls plus recently produced components. The new T-80s could supplement the dwindling number of refurbished T-80s rolling out of Omsk at a rate of around a dozen a month.

There were nearly 1,900 decommissioned T-80s rusting in Russia’s sprawling vehicle parks as recently as 2022. By now, perhaps a thousand of these old tanks have cycled through Omsk for rework. Hundreds of those rebuilt tanks have already been destroyed in Ukraine.

Omsk will eventually run out of old stored T-80s to fix up. At that point, whatever new T-80s it can piece together will be the only T-80s it can deliver to front-line regiments.

Tank hype

It’s worth noting that Russian officials tend to exaggerate how many tanks Uralvagonzavod can produce. It’s possible some independent analysts are guilty of the same tank inflation.

The pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team recently concluded Russian industry was making hundreds of new T-90Ms every year: enough to keep its best tank regiments fully armed for the wider war in Ukraine … or some future clash with NATO.

“According to our estimates, Uralvagonzavod produced 60 to 70 T-90M tanks in 2022,” CIT reported. “In 2023, amid efforts to mobilize the defense industry, output may have increased to 140 to 180 tanks, and by 2024, it may have surpassed 200 units annually, possibly approaching a production rate of 250 to 300 tanks per year.”

But according to one expert, CIT is wrong. Sergio Miller, an analyst and former British Army intelligence officer, believes Russia is struggling to complete even 100 T-90Ms a year—and most of those it does complete are revamped T-90As rather than all-new vehicles.

“In total, UVZ only claimed to deliver 100 tanks in 2024,” Miller told reporter David Hambling. “I have no idea where the high figures quoted by some Western reporting come from. There is no evidence this is the case.”

It gets worse for the Russians. So far this year, Miller concluded, Uralvagonzavod has completed 10 or fewer T-90s. With so few new tanks, the Kremlin would struggle to restore its depleted armored regiments.

There are reasons to trust Miller over CIT. Squeezed by sanctions, Uralvagonzavod is probably struggling to source high-tech tank parts such as optics and electronics. In that context, the lower figure for T-90 production makes sense. Likewise, Potapov’s claims about new T-80s already taking shape in Omsk may be inflated.

New production might not be able to halt the steady “de-mechanization” of the Russian armed forces that began with Russia’s first battlefield defeats in the spring of 2022. There are too few tanks left in open storage … and possibly too few tanks rolling out of Uralvagonzavod’s factories.

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How many T-90M tanks is Russia building—300 or just 10? NATO’s asking for a friend

A new Ukrainian military robot is rolling out. Oboronka news site reports that the 4-ton ground drone named “Bufalo” is diesel-powered, armored, and built for AI-assisted frontline logistics and demining.

Bufalo: Ukraine’s new diesel-driven ground drone for war

Bufalo’s key advantage is its diesel engine. Fuel tanks can be scaled by mission, giving it a range of 100–200 km without battery swaps. Developers say electric drones can’t meet today’s longer frontlines.

“Electric drones cannot cover the distance to deliver provisions and ammunition to the front,” said company head Vladyslav.

Built for real combat conditions

Bufalo’s chassis is armored with European steel. It withstands any bullet and indirect 152 mm artillery if shells land beyond 100 meters. Even if damaged, its wheels remain operational.

The drone uses Starlink with GPS or a radio link for communications. A CRPA antenna protects satellite signal from jamming. If Starlink fails or is disabled, a relay-equipped drone can take over the signal.

AI-driven navigation, but no killer robot

Bufalo uses onboard cameras to detect obstacles up to 15 meters away, suggest safe routes, and stop if needed. Navigation is assisted by AI, but decisions stay human-controlled.

“The robot can lock onto and follow a target, but it will not make decisions to destroy equipment or people. I will never allow it to make decisions in place of a human…” said Vladyslav.

From failure to battlefield resilience

The idea for Bufalo came after a drone prototype failed a demo—losing a wheel and flipping. A soldier dismissed the tech, pushing Vladyslav to start from scratch. His new team asked the General Staff for requirements and collected feedback from frontline units.

Requests included smoke grenades, armored wheels, a shielded bottom to resist mines, and Starlink integration. All were implemented.

Timeline and domestic focus

The Bufalo project launched in January 2025. From March to August, the team built and tested the demining version. That kit includes the drone, a hydraulic system, mulcher, control panel, and trailer.

What’s next for Bufalo?

Bufalo is modular and may get combat features soon. The team is exploring weapon modules and engineering tools like remote trenching scoops. An 11-channel radio jamming system has passed tests and is ready for integration.

“We’re building an infrastructurally simple drone, so one control system can be removed and another installed. We’ve made understandable communication interfaces. The EW manufacturer just needs to provide a connector—we’ll plug it in and it’ll work automatically,” said Vladyslav.

The team plans an official presentation, followed by codification and production. Initial output will be 10 drones per month, with plans to scale.

Poland has begun discussing with the allies the possibility of intercepting Russian drones and missiles while they are still over Ukrainian territory. According to Defense Express analysts, this is technically possible, but it raises a number of complex issues, including avoiding friendly fire.

The idea of intercepting Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine first emerged in 2022, in response to calls to “close the skies.”

Politically, the chances of a massive agreement among all NATO or EU members remain low. More realistic are limited missions by individual countries, such as the UK, France, and Germany.

Idea and background

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that the West should consider intercepting Russian drones and missiles in Ukraine’s airspace. He emphasized that Poland cannot make this decision alone; it must be coordinated with allies.

Analysts note that the final decision is primarily political, and the chances of alliance-wide approval are low. However, initiatives by a limited number of countries are much more likely to be implemented.

Technical possibilities

If ground-based air defense systems and placing fighters at Ukrainian airfields are excluded, the most realistic scenario is air patrols from NATO’s eastern flank bases.

This would involve F-16s, F-35s, Rafales, and Eurofighters stationed at Polish or other border airbases, conducting patrol flights within effective range. Existing deployments show few logistical obstacles: in August, German Eurofighters were based at the 23rd Air Base near Warsaw. From there, fighters could reach Volyn Oblast in Ukraine, bordering Poland, in approximately 15 minutes without afterburners.

Key technical parameters include:

• Effective patrol range
• Flight duration
• Long-range radar detection (AWACS)
• Patrol time, up to several hours, depending on aircraft type and flight profile, determining which areas over Ukraine can be covered.

Main challenge: avoiding friendly fire

The key issue is coordination between partners and the Ukrainian side. A practical solution could be the creation of a conditional “no-fly, no-AAA” zone for Ukrainian forces, within which only allied fighters would operate.

This approach reduces the risk of friendly fire but significantly limits patrol areas. Analysts emphasize that real interception zones will be localized, mostly covering Ukraine’s border regions.

The US and EU continue to buy Russian energy and goods despite the war in Ukraine. In the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US and the EU continue to import oil, gas, metals, and fertilizers from Russia. The total trade volume is estimated in the billions of euros, Reuters reports. 

After sanctions were imposed as the Kremlin attacked Ukraine, EU exports to Russia fell by 61%, and imports from Russia dropped by 89% from Q1 2022 to Q2 2025. At the same time, in Q2 2025, EU exports to Russia increased slightly while imports decreased, resulting in a trade surplus of €0.8 billion.

Oil: Positive dynamic is seen, but it still brings millions to Russia

Four years ago, Russia was the largest oil supplier to the EU. The ban on maritime imports of crude oil reduced its share from 28.74% in 2021 to 2.01% in 2025. In Q2 2025, Russian oil accounted for only 2% of total EU imports.

Gas is reaching Hungary and Bulgaria 

Russia’s share of the EU’s natural gas imports fell to 12% in Q2 2025, down from 48% in 2021. Algeria is now the largest supplier (27%), while Norway increased its share by 10%. Nevertheless, Russian gas still reaches some countries, including Hungary and Bulgaria, via the Turkish Stream.

Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia fell to 14% in Q2 2025, down from 22% in 2021. The largest LNG supplier to the EU in 2025 was the US (54%).

Metals and fertilizers 

Russia’s share in the EU’s iron and steel imports decreased from 18% in 2021 to 6% in Q2 2025.

However, Russia remains the largest supplier of fertilizers to the EU, with its share increasing from 28% to 34% over four years.

US imports from Russia bring Moscow billions for the killing of Ukrainian women and children 

US imports from Russia totaled $2.50 billion in the first half of 2025, down from $14.14 billion four years ago. Overall, since January 2022, the US has imported $24.51 billion worth of Russian goods.

Last year, the US imported $1.27 billion in Russian fertilizers (compared to $1.14 billion in 2021), enriched uranium and plutonium worth $624 million (down from $646 million in 2021), and palladium worth $878 million (down from $1.59 billion in 2021).